Translated material
Hour of the hawk
They want to force Putin to increase defense spending
“For political and economic reasons, Russia is not interested in the defeat of the United States,” Vladimir Putin said yesterday in Tambov, adding that it is interested in moving the Iraqi issue “to the UN platform” as soon as possible. The point, of course, is not that a US military defeat could become a reality. The point is that the president, having made this fundamental statement, decided to send a clear signal - not only to the United States, but also to Russia itself, where anti-American sentiments have intensified. Including the political and military elite.Meanwhile, the war in Iraq in any case forces Russia to take a fresh look at its army. And the point is not so much that retired generals predict for us the role of one of the next targets of “American aggression.” Even the “hawks”, of whom there are many in the Russian leadership, do not take this threat seriously.
A much greater danger is the fact that, as a result of the escalation of hostilities in the Persian Gulf, many third world countries are striving with all their might to acquire nuclear weapons - as a guarantee against external attack. North Korea is an example of this. Russian intelligence services - both military and political - are already recording interstate contacts in this direction. And in countries that are “getting used” to formidable weapons, unauthorized launches are possible. On the one hand, this is an additional argument for cooperation with the United States in ensuring security. But, on the other hand, it is a new reason for strengthening national defense.
The combat readiness and spirit of the Russian army, to put it mildly, leave much to be desired. According to a sociological survey of military personnel just conducted with the assistance of the Main Directorate of Educational Work of the Ministry of Defense, the overwhelming majority of conscripts do not consider their involvement in the defense of the Fatherland, military honor and dignity, as something important in their lives. Military sociologists believe that the reasons for this attitude are the lack of effective training and education of pre-conscription youth. And they even draw a parallel: if the Iraqi army had been in the same moral state, the coalition forces would have been in Baghdad already on the third day.
In such an atmosphere, as the Vremya Novostey newspaper learned from sources close to military circles, the president and his administration have been under pressure from supporters of a “strong Russia” since the beginning of the war in Iraq. A proposal to increase the defense budget from 2.64 to 3.5% of GDP has already been sent to Vladimir Putin for consideration, as the head of the lower house of parliament defense committee Andrei Nikolaev spoke about the other day. The figure of 3.5% of GDP spent on defense has been mentioned in high places for many years, but this time the ranks of its supporters may grow. If until now the “doves” debated about the use of the budget surplus and the government’s financial reserve (save money for a rainy day in the stabilization fund or spend it on reducing taxes), now “hawks” will probably intervene in the discussion. Since the country had oil windfalls, then, as they say, God himself ordered them to be used to increase its defense capability, without causing damage to national finances.
If defense spending is increased to the requested percentage of GDP, the military budget for next year could reach about 600 billion rubles. This, according to Andrei Nikolaev, will be enough to carry out full-fledged combat and operational training, increase funding for research and development work by 2.5 times, purchase military equipment and weapons three times, increase the social security for military personnel.
In addition, additional funds are expected to be allocated to revive the missile defense system of the Moscow region.
It is also likely that the Russian financial pendulum will once again swing towards strategic nuclear forces. After the US withdrawal from the ABM Treaty, the Russian leadership loudly announced the return to combat duty of the world's most powerful RS-20 (SS-18) Satan missile and combat railway systems (BZHRK). However, this measure is only for a few years. The future lies with Topol-M, the pace of equipment of which is very low. In the context of the “fashion” for warheads, Russia as a nuclear power cannot remain on the sidelines, “nuclear strategists” believe.
State Duma deputies - military personnel, in order to retain professionals in the army, are raising the issue of returning social benefits to people in uniform, the elimination of which last year was not compensated by the promised salary increases according to position and rank. In the lower house of parliament they are increasingly talking about the abolition of most deferments from conscription.
The issue of returning to school for basic military training, which was replaced in the early 90s by the “Fundamentals of Life Safety,” is considered practically resolved. They also demand from the state that it turn its face to the Russian Public Sports and Technical Organization (ROSTO) - the successor to DOSAAF, which today earns money to prepare young men for the army by training foreign amateur pilots and car drivers.
No final decisions have been made yet. But what can be considered unconditional is that the war in Iraq played into the hands of those who believe that a “strong Russia” with an independent policy is, first of all, a “strong army.”