Korea’s second front

Tensions between Pyongyang and Seoul reach boiling point as the two Koreas risk coming face-to-face in Ukraine

As South Korea mulls sending its own military officers to observe the North Korean troops fighting alongside Russia, tensions between the two Koreas are higher than ever, but how likely is a proxy war between Pyongyang and Seoul in Ukraine?

On 18 October, South Korean intelligence reported that Pyongyang planned to send up to 12,000 troops to bolster the Russian military in Ukraine, and that at least 1,500 soldiers had already arrived in Russia.

The soldiers had allegedly been issued with forged documents stating that they were Buryats and Yakuts, so Russian citizens, South Korean intelligence said. Several days later, Seoul announced that North Korea had also sent fighter pilots to Russia.

According to Ukrainian military intelligence, as many as 11,000 North Korean soldiers are already undergoing training in Russia, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Tuesday that two North Korea brigades of 6,000 soldiers each were being trained to fight with the Russian military.

Meanwhile, South Korean media reported that the country was examining the possibility of sending groups of its own military intelligence officers to Ukraine. Initially, they would not take part in military operations, but would observe the North Korean troops fighting with Russia.

Are North Korean soldiers already fighting in Ukraine?

On 18 October, the Ukrainian Centre for Strategic Communications and Information Safety (SPRAVDI) posted a video where soldiers alleged to be from North Korea were seen standing in line to receive Russian equipment, which it said was shot at the Sergeyevsky training ground, 130 km from Vladivostok.

This is the first time North Korean soldiers have taken part in military operations outside their country, Fyodor Tertitsky, a Korea expert and lecturer at Korea University in Seoul, told Novaya Gazeta Europe, adding that it was unlikely the reports were incorrect.

South Korean intelligence announced that it had first received reports that soldiers from North Korea had been sent to Russia on 8 October. These are elite troops, special forces from the 11th Corps, whom North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un himself has inspected twice in the last month and a half. The corps is believed to number up to 80,000 soldiers.

Tertitsky told Novaya Europe that he assessed the combat ability of the North Korean special forces from the 11th Corps as very high. These are highly trained assault troops, until recently classified as light infantry, who were retrained as special forces last year, Tertitsky explained.

Russia and North Korea continue to deny reports on the presence of North Korean soldiers in Russia.

Researcher Kim Jin Moo at the Korea Institute for Defence Analyses (KIDA) told BBC News Korean that the North Korean special forces, consisting of paratroopers and SEALs, are very well-trained. Despite the widespread belief that the North Korean army is made up of “malnourished wretches”, he said that the soldiers in the 11th Corps were in fact highly trained and physically strong, were “fed on pork” and had excellent survival skills. Kim believes that they will mainly focus on the “enemy’s rear, causing chaos there”.

Valeriy Ryabykh, editor of Ukrainian publication Defence Express, agrees that the North Korean divisions are unlikely to be seen on the frontlines any time soon, adding that the North Koreans could be asked to guard sections of the Russian-Ukrainian border, which would free up Russian units to fight elsewhere.

Seoul has also announced that North Korea sent fighter pilots to Russia in September, ahead of the ground troops. According to a South Korean government report cited by the television channel Chosun, the pilots may either be fighting for Russia, or undergoing training in Russian fighter jets.

North Korea has previously provided Russia with weapons, including 13,000 containers of shells, missiles and anti-tank weapons since August alone.

The US confirmed on Wednesday that 3,000 North Korean troops had been sent to Russia and were undergoing training at multiple locations, calling the move very serious and warning that those forces would be “fair game” if they went into combat in Ukraine.

However, Russia and North Korea continue to deny reports on the presence of North Korean soldiers in Russia. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said earlier this month that the reports were “just another piece of fake news”, while the representative for North Korea at the UN also called the news “unfounded rumours intended to undermine North Korea’s image”.

Will South Korea intervene in the war?

South Korea is already indirectly supporting Ukraine, given that artillery shells manufactured in South Korea are delivered to storage facilities from where American ammunition is sent as aid to Ukraine, Tertitsky told Novaya Europe.

Discussions on South Korea’s full involvement in the war are being held both inside and outside the country, with some Ukrainian officers hinting that South Korea should enter the war. “North Korea has sent its best troops to Ukraine. South Korea now has the chance to put an end to the divide artificially created by the Soviet Union. This is also a chance for all of East Asia to defend itself from a neighbour with nuclear bombs,” Bohdan Krotevych, the head of the Azov Brigade, a formation of the Ukrainian National Guard, wrote in Korean on X on 19 October.

If North Korea joins the war in Ukraine, South Korea will also become involved, senior research fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification Cho Han Bum said.

Cho added that at the first “indisputable proof” of North Koreans fighting against Ukraine — such as North Koreans being captured as Ukrainian prisoners of war — South Korea would have grounds to provide Ukraine with large quantities of lethal weapons. Previously, South Korean President Yoon Sook Yeol had only agreed to provide non-lethal weapons and humanitarian aid.

South Koreans will be “glad to interrogate” any North Koreans taken prisoner in Ukraine if they end up taking part in military operations.

South Korean publication SBS BIZ quoted a government source on 22 October who said the country was already preparing to send its soldiers and experts to Ukraine. They will initially provide “monitoring”, i.e. study the tactics and activities of the North Korean troops, and also participate in interrogating any prisoners of war.

South Koreans will be “glad to interrogate” any North Koreans taken prisoner in Ukraine if they end up taking part in military operations, Tertitsky said. “They not only speak the same language but also understand the sort of questions that need to be asked.”

At present there are very few defectors to South Korea from the North, so Seoul lacks reliable sources of information from Pyongyang. The South Koreans may also wish to share information with the Ukrainians about the methods of fighting that the North Koreans use.

South Korea is one of the world’s largest exporters of weapons systems, and Ukraine hopes to receive aid from the country in the form of air defence systems. South Korea has the Cheongung-1 air defence system, which can intercept fighter jets, and Cheongung-2, which can also intercept ballistic missiles. Cheongung-2 is considered more advanced because it is designed to intercept direct hits.

However, these are all weapons for defence. Even if North Korea enters the war, some analysts believe that South Korea does not at present intend to directly supply Ukraine with lethal weapons. How this issue is resolved will likely depend on confirmation of North Korean soldiers’ involvement.

“Seoul is concerned that the North Koreans will learn to fight well if they are trained in real military conditions.”

The possibility that North Korea under Russia’s influence will provoke a proxy war now looks like “the most serious threat”, said Park Hwee Rhak, an associate professor at Kookmin University in Seoul. “If Russia faces serious difficulties in its war with Ukraine, it may aim to spread US aid thin. To do so, it could start pressuring North Korea to attack South Korea to open up a second front.”

North Korea dynamited inter-Korean roads and cut off land routes with the South on 15 October, which may have been part of the plan by Pyongyang and Moscow to destabilise the situation, Park said. The symbolic stretch of highway used to join North and South Korea, whose relations had improved under the presidency of Moon Jae In from 2017 to 2022.

“Seoul is concerned that the North Koreans will learn to fight well if they are trained in real military conditions,” Tertitsky said. “There is also a risk that Russia will give North Korea precision weapons and modern technologies that will be used against the South in exchange for Pyongyang’s help. The border between the two Koreas is 70 kilometres from Seoul, and if hostilities begin, the North Koreans will threaten to strike the southern capital. Meanwhile, Pyongyang is counting on the nuclear weapons it has at its disposal, and is improving means for their delivery.”