Future America the Beautiful

Stanislav Belkovsky*: the main elections of the season will fix global trends. Where the world is heading, regardless of the person of the 47th President of the United States

18+. THIS MATERIAL (INFORMATION) IS PRODUCED, DISTRIBUTED AND (OR) SENT BY FOREIGN AGENT BELKOVSKY STANISLAV ALEXANDROVICH OR CONCERNES THE ACTIVITIES OF FOREIGN AGENT BELKOVSKY STANISLAV ALEXANDROVICH.

A commonplace: (in)dear Russians are so interested in the elections in the United States because we ourselves do not have elections and are not expected to. A tearful mixture of envy and excitement.

Of course. Watching a show where nothing depends on you, be it “The Bachelor” or the World Cup, is not just an exciting activity, but also a calming and relaxing activity. You escape from your real world, the problems of which fill you to the brim, into another existence, where it is “clean and light” (c). By creating a complete illusion for yourself that you are also there, participating, acting, influencing and winning.

But in relation to the American elections, this is still not strictly true. The American-centric world, although crumbling and bursting at the seams, still exists. And something depends on America for any of the eight billion earthlings. This means that we have every right to worry about what will ultimately happen there.

In earlier times, when the American-centricity of this worldly universe did not yet raise desperate doubts, political scientist Pavel Svyatenkov, my colleague at the Institute of National Strategy, proposed the following: since the United States is the only and global superpower, then each and every one of them should receive their quota in the electoral college of their president country. And this is a typical joke taken seriously.

However, no matter who wins - Donald Trump or Kamala Harris - our slogan remains unchanged: WBH (Everything Will Be Fine). The main elections of the historical season will fix the main global trends: where the world is heading. And where will he move regardless of the person of the 47th President of the United States.

32.579345, 35.180021

These are the coordinates of Armageddon (the settlement of Ar Megiddo in Israel) on the physical and political map of the world.

The 2024 American elections are not an intelligent competitive event with sweet joy about the victory of its candidate and light sadness in the event of his loss. This is a decisive and decisive (everything) battle between Good (our candidate) and Evil (its rival). And the defeat of Good is not a political fact for four years in advance, but an existential catastrophe.

Of course, the “Armageddonization” of elections is a time-tested political technology method of mobilizing the electorate. Vote, otherwise it's yours. “Mobilization” is generally the key and polysemantic word of this transitional year. Whether in the USA, in Ukraine, in the Russian Federation, and many other places.

But in 2024, increased nervousness with a tragic lining is not just someone’s applied idea. And a reflection of the time in which elections take place. Change of Epochs, one of the key events of which is World War IV. And the imperialist war, as we know, likes to turn into a civil war. Including in elections. Not only in the USA, but also in France, Moldova, Georgia. Neurotization is an inevitable companion, it is also an indicator of changing historical times, when the usual structures of the familiar world are collapsing, and the unfamiliar tomorrow does not yet clearly present itself.

But anyone who thinks that the motto of this election is “Victory or Death” simply has not yet learned about our optimistic WBH.

Trumpism as a philosophy of the future

Major magical analysts differ in their predictions of results.

Historian Allan Lichtman, author (together with Russian geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok) of the predictive methodology “13 Keys to the White House”, who correctly predicted the results of 9 out of 10 previous ones (except for the success of George W. Bush in 2000), believes: there will be Kamala Harris.

But the “most accurate economist”, the best forecaster in the United States, according to Bloomberg, Christophe Barrot, is betting on Donald Trump. Just like American bookmakers: according to their version, as the Election Betting Odds portal tells us, the probability of Mr. Trump winning is on average 53.7%, Ms. Harris has the remaining 45.7%.

But the wisest forecast so far has come from the authoritative British publication The Economist: whoever wins, American policy will largely be shaped by Trump’s ideas.

According to The Economist, Ms Harris's system of priorities is largely based on Mr Trump's sweetly borrowed ideas, particularly on limiting immigration and maintaining protective tariffs. And even regarding the abolition of taxes on restaurant tips.

The only significant discrepancy is on issues of Ukraine. And that's it for now. For Mr. Trump’s real plans regarding Ukraine / *** in Europe are unclear - and above all, to himself. Like any classic showman in politics, he will think about this tomorrow - if and when he (again) becomes president.

The Economist is largely right.

Not so much Donald Trump personally, but Trumpism as a political ideology-and-philosophy will be successful simply because there are several important trends in it and behind it. Which during and after the Change of Epochs will increase in space-time - regardless of the silhouette of the next owner of the White House.

And: Trump managed to pose quite correctly some of the key issues of American-and-global modernity. History itself will answer these questions - with the reliable and/or trembling hands of certain characters. It doesn't matter which ones.

Trump and his friend Nobel

The Nobel Prize 2024 is largely dedicated to the 45th President of the United States. Although he is never personally mentioned in the decisions of the Nobel Committee.

For example, in economics, which Daron Acemoglu, James Robinson and Simon Johnson received for their study of the role of institutions in the prosperity of countries-and-peoples. In the book of the first two Why Nations Fail (published in Russian under the twice as long title “Why are some countries rich and others poor”), which in many ways is the object of the Nobel award, that same “Trump wall” is described. Between the USA and Mexico. And not as a real estate object / building structure, but as a mental and cultural barrier.

Everything there starts from a description of the city of Nogales, the upper half of which is located in the US state of Arizona. And the lower one is in the Mexican state of Sonora. And although the people in the two halves live almost identically, in the American Nogales there is stable prosperity, and in the Mexican there is a kind of (formless) squalor.

This is where Trump's true wall is. Which Trumpism erects between the pristine America, created by indoctrinated (Northern) European Protestants who rigidly desired organized freedom for themselves and their descendants. And a “side view” of America, which demolishes monuments to the founding fathers, and the unfortunate George Floyd, a drug addict and parasite, tortured by a white policeman, becomes his idol.

Such a wall is a reminder that not only the United States, but also all of what era analysts like to call the “collective West” has lost its way in the search for its own identity. And, apparently, one cannot do without Christianity in acquiring this identity either.

Trump is the candidate of this trend. Which will be in demand and gain strength, even if the “red-haired showman” does not return to power.

Yes, many here - from Trump's former lawyer Michael Cohen to disloyal family members - will note that Donald is not a real Christian, but a banal opportunist hypocrite trying to adapt religion to political needs. “What the hell is going on with him? - his mother Mary Ann was once indignant. “The only time Donald went to church was when there were photographers there.” It's mind boggling. He has no principles!”

But this, no matter how funny it may be, is not so important. A Pew Research survey among American Christians shows that whether Trump is sincere or not, under him the conditions for Christian preaching and increasing the role/status of religion in society will be better and respected. This means that America will come closer to the embodiment of one of the most important trends of the coming Epoch: the removal of the contradiction between scientific and religious knowledge of the world.

Yes, actually, Acemoglu and Co. are talking about the same thing. In their highly regarded opinion, colonies were able to become prosperous where Europeans intended to live themselves and therefore equipped them for themselves. By creating capable inclusive institutions for this purpose. But colonies without permanent Europeans and institutions have decayed and turned into stinking backyards of the world, oh vey.

True, the secular nobles are afraid to formulate this matter correctly. And it should sound like this: the states built by (Northern) European Christians as new spaces of self-realization and self-actualization have become prosperous. This is why institutions were needed, according to the version under discussion - a guarantee of success and efficiency, peace and goodness.

True, Trump is now increasingly being referred to as a dangerous individualist-voluntarist who poses an almost mortal threat to American institutions. Well, that's probably true too. This means that American institutions, thanks to such a valuable candidate for the presidency, will remember their sacred role. And, if necessary, they will provide remarkable resistance. Showing the whole world another American example: how to prevent the big male Ego from usurping power in one single country of (still) global significance.

But the Nobel Peace Prize is also based on Trumpism. This time it was awarded to the Nihon Hidankyo Association - the Japanese Council of Organizations of Victims of the Atomic Bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Its main specialization is the fight for nuclear disarmament. Here, of course, the great merit of V.V. Putin, who in recent years has accustomed the world to his nuclear blackmail.

But it’s Trump who is constantly talking: global warming, yes, it’s very cool, but the nuclear threat right now will be even more important.

Because autocrats and international hooligans equated to them suddenly realized: nuclear weapons for them are a key source of legitimacy and a reliable guarantee of the endless prolongation of power. And the fear of “nuclear escalation” paralyzes all the limbs of the free world, its spinal cord and brain, forcing it to agree to renounce the primacy of freedom and global ambitions - “as long as there is no war.” And if tomorrow a uranium-plutonium bomb appears in the hands of the Medellin cartel, will it also become an indispensable and irreplaceable partner for the United States, with whom it is necessary to carefully search for a line of contact?

Everything about the presidential post is still unclear, but Trump definitely deserved the Nobel Prize. By the way, by the way, back in 2020 and the Abraham Accords signed that year are the most understandable and effective model of a Middle East settlement, i.e. long peace for Muslims, Jews and Christians joining them on this occasion.

Trumpism and the deep state

It is clear that the 2024 American elections are no longer a confrontation between Republicans and Democrats, who were not so different from each other in the old days. And not the struggle of right and left in the outdated meaning of these terms generated by the Great French Revolution.

The key plot of the battle: the political establishment, whose loyal representative is Kamala Harris, and the anti-establishment forces-layers (Donald Trump). A blue system player versus a colorful joker showman. And on both sides there are carriers of the most different ideologies and not carriers of any.

An important aspect of this plot: the bad old hierarchical state vs network structures. The basic historical trend is on the side of the latter. Which will not abolish the state hierarchy, but will deprive it - and are already depriving it of some of its exclusive powers. This is how uncensored social networks and cryptocurrencies are. The bearer/exponent of the trend is, of course, Trump. Here's the story for him.

As well as the irritation accumulated in many millions of painful souls at the self-interest of the elites. With their main malignant vices, those same 5G, Five Grounds (corruption; nepotism; hypocrisy; incompetence; arrogance). Rejection of “House of Cards,” which is selectively American and therefore worldwide. “Do you know why they don’t like Washington? “Because people like you live and work here” (c).

Kamalism as the future of humanity

But Kamala Harris is no stranger to either. She also personifies/embodies several important trends.

For example.

• Women's rule. Comprehensive and all-dimensional management should and will increasingly be concentrated in the hands of the “second sex”, which is richer in intuition and devoid of typically male problems with phallometry.

• The primacy of institutional legitimacy over charismatic. What Daron Acemoglu and Co. are also talking about with all their might.

• Political correctness + tolerance. Which does not in the least contradict the revival of Christian identity.

When Mr. Trump calls his opponent a Marxist, he is greatly exaggerating. Ms. Harris is generally devoid of ideology in the classical sense of the word. Although “Marxism” itself in the newest reality will not sound like a curse. For today and early tomorrow, some completely Marxist issues are being updated, such as: overcoming the alienation of labor. Working people - forgive us this old term - will be increasingly interested in whether it is right that the fruits of their labors go to the acquisition of ocean-going yachts, transcontinental liners and tropical islands for their top management.

Here recently Eric Schmidt, the former head of Google, complained about how his corporation lags behind small mobile competitors in the field of artificial intelligence.

“Google decided that work-life balance, going home early, and working remotely were more important than winning,” Eric Schmidt responded when asked why Google was losing out to American companies like OpenAI and Anthropic in the AI ​​race. In his opinion, such startups achieve success because “the people there work like hell.” You can't "let people work from home and come into the office once a week" if the company wants to compete with other startups, Schmidt said in a lecture, the video of which was published in August 2024 on the official YouTube channel of Stanford University - and was soon deleted . Mr. Schmidt apparently understood everything about himself and decided not to escalate the situation.

— Thesis: “From each according to his ability, to each according to his needs.” Demanding to life, among other things, the latest philosophy of consumption: the necessary is more important than the superfluous/excessive. Rough examples: you won't buy a car if you don't need to regularly drive long distances; a fur coat if you live near a warm sea, etc..

— Revision/clarification of ideas about property, which will increasingly be perceived not as a tool, but as a burden and a cruel ruler of a person who makes decisions - including where to live, who to work and how/what to be in general - under the pressure of property dictating its own priorities. “Where your treasure is, there will your heart be also.”

It is no coincidence that Elon Musk and Pavel Durov, very wealthy people, emphasize that they do not need real estate to own. Property is the enemy of mobility, and therefore freedom.

Egosphere

Despite all the partial relevance of global Trumpism, the individual and presidential candidate Donald Trump is seriously hampered by his main drawback - an exaggerated Ego. Without curbing which, as Carl Gustav Jung taught us, it is impossible to come to awareness and comprehension of the Self. In the growing Age of Return, an (in)limitably inflated Ego is unfashionable. Such an Ego is no longer worn. In this sense, Ms Harris is a human function, "an empty uniform that can be put on any mannequin", as one of her party comrades anonymously put it - which, remarkably, is now more modern. A weak president with strong institutions is, in modern times, better than the other way around. Although there is another side to this non-Nobel medal: critical periods of the Change of Epochs sometimes require very tough radical, “perpendicular” decisions. And here a strong leader is at least no less important than the entire institutional mechanism, the rusty slowness of which can turn out to be a tanned side to the nation, the country and the world.

How it won't end

And no matter how it ends - WBH (see where we started).

Formally, the losing half of America does not recognize the winner as a full-fledged president. This means that presidential power will weaken. Together with a large hierarchical state. But the political role and self-awareness of the states will grow. Therefore, decentralization will increase. Well, and the role of network structures - where would we be without it and without them.

All these are trends of the coming era. They will win one way or another.

Therefore, all that is allowed and available to us is to wait and hope. I remember that people gained hope when they lost the gift of foresight. And since then they still haven’t regretted it.

* Included by the Russian authorities in the register of “foreign agents”