Translated material
Trump won the election
Republican Donald Trump became the elected president of the United States. The results are still being counted, but he is already clearly ahead of the Democratic Party candidate, the current Vice President Kamala Harris . These are two candidates with polar positions: Harris emphasized improving the lives of the middle class and lowering prices, while Trump promised to deal with illegal immigration and the "men" in women's sports. As president, the Republican promised to end the war in Ukraine “very quickly.” Trump, 78, will officially take office on January 20, 2025, replacing Democrat Joe Biden in the White House. Everything you need to know about the past elections in the United States is in the material from “Cold.”
He promises to end the war in Ukraine and arrange the largest mass deportation of migrants in US history.
The counting of votes is still ongoing. By 14:00 Moscow time, Trump received 277 electoral votes, and Harris - 224. To win, you need to get at least 270 votes. Harris beat Trump in all the so-called swing states on which the outcome of the presidential race depended.
The current elections determine not only the new US President for the next four years, but also the full composition of the House of Representatives and some members of the Senate. It is already known that the majority of seats in the Senate were occupied by representatives of the Republican Party. The fight for the House of Representatives is still ongoing, but even here the Republicans are taking the lead: so far they have 196 seats, and 176 for the Democrats.
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The US President is not chosen through direct elections: citizens can vote for their candidate, but their votes are not decisive. The final say goes to the electors, who choose for all the residents of a particular state. The slates of electors are confirmed before general elections at the state level.
Each state has its own number of electors, equal to the number of its senators and congressmen. There are 538 electors in the United States: 535 from states and three from the District of Columbia, where Washington is located. If no one receives the required number of electoral votes, the vote goes to the House of Representatives. Each state's delegation to the House of Representatives gets one vote for president, and the winner is the one who receives at least 26 votes out of a possible 50.
The US Constitution does not require electors to vote for the candidate chosen by the popular vote in their state. In some states, such as Idaho or Kansas, there are no consequences for electors if they vote for the “wrong” candidate. However, most American states still prohibit electors from breaking their promises.
In the United States, over the past 100 years, there have been two situations where a candidate won the electoral vote but lost the popular vote: in 2000 and in 2016. This is how Trump won his first election in 2016: his Democratic opponent Hillary Clinton did not receive the required number of electoral votes, but beat him by almost three million citizen votes.
The minority decides
Every election cycle, most American states vote the same way: for example, California has supported the Democrats for the last 30 years, and West Virginia has supported the Republicans. Such states are called either blue (for Democrats) or red (for Republicans) - depending on the political preferences of their residents. For example, New York is considered a blue state because it last voted for a Republican candidate only 40 years ago, during the era of Ronald Reagan.
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The election results are largely determined, including this time, by the opinions of voters in the so-called swing, or purple, states, which always vote differently, so presidential candidates first of all sought to convince the local electorate. In 2024, experts named seven swing states: Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.
If both candidates win their blue and red states, the presidential race will come down to seven swing states. To win, Kamala Harris would need 44 electoral votes from purple states, while Trump would need a little more - 51. In all these states, voters vote approximately equally for Republicans and Democrats, so the outcome of the election is decided by a minority of undecided voters. Preliminary results show Trump winning in each of the seven swing states.
The most important swing state is Pennsylvania. It could give the winner 19 Electoral College votes at once. It was at a rally in Pennsylvania that the first attempt was made on Trump's life in July 2024. Pre-election polls showed a minimal Democratic lead in the state, with Harris ahead of Trump by 0.2%. Despite this, Pennsylvania will still remain with Trump: in this state he receives 51% of the vote.
Candidates can receive 16 votes each in Georgia and North Carolina . In both states, Trump was leading in the polls. This forecast was confirmed in practice: after counting almost 100% of the ballots, he wins in these two states. Four years ago, Trump lost to Joe Biden in Georgia and was later indicted on criminal racketeering charges in the same state.
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Trump is confidently ahead of Harris in Arizona after more than half the votes have been counted. A victory in Arizona would give Trump 11 electoral votes. The Republican won the state in 2016 but lost to Biden by 0.3% in 2020. A focus on the migrant issue, which has become central to local voters, could have played in Trump's favor because Arizona borders Mexico, the world's largest migration corridor.
Trump leads Harris by nearly 5 percentage points in Nevada. Pre-election polls showed Democrats holding leads in Michigan and Wisconsin , but both states actually favored Republicans by large margins.
Positions on major issues
For the third year in a row, Americans call inflation the main problem in the country. US consumer prices have been rising since the start of Democrat Joe Biden's presidency, peaking at 9.1% in 2022. The Biden-Harris administration coincided with the COVID-19 pandemic and the outbreak of war in Ukraine, two factors that contributed to a surge in inflation. When Trump was president, inflation remained at 1.9%.
Harris blames rising inflation on large companies, which she believes enjoy dominant market positions and inflate food prices. She proposed at the federal level to prohibit inflating prices for vital goods during crises and emergencies and to impose fines on those corporations that circumvent the ban. In addition, Harris promised not to raise taxes for those Americans who earn less than 400 thousand dollars a year (39.5 million rubles), which is 98% of all US taxpayers .
Trump proposes introducing tax breaks for corporations and wealthy Americans to create attractive conditions for doing business in the United States. On the other hand, Trump allowed the abolition of personal income taxes: instead, the budget would have to receive more funds from duties on goods imported into the United States. For example, Trump promised to impose duties on Chinese goods from 60 to 100% of their value. Economists, however, fear that such proposals are more likely to lead to a US trade war with China than to lower inflation.
Harris and Trump are deeply at odds on immigration. The Biden-Harris administration advocates soft restrictions, so in June 2024, with rare exceptions , it prohibited those migrants who cross the US-Mexico border without legal grounds from applying for asylum. Before the decree was issued, about 2.5 thousand people a day crossed the border. Harris planned to continue this policy and hoped to pass border security legislation that would increase requirements for asylum seekers and tighten border controls.
The Republican is much tougher on migrant issues. As president, Trump wants to suspend the refugee program and ban citizens of Muslim-majority countries from entering the United States. The Republican promises to carry out the largest deportation in US history - about 11 million people, or 3% of the population, may be at risk of deportation. In fact, this could lead to a sharp rise in inflation and a decline in GDP.
How do Trump and Harris want to end the war in Ukraine?
The Biden administration has provided more than $100 billion in aid to Ukraine during its war with Russia. Harris planned to continue the policy of the current American president: back in February, she promised to help Ukraine financially if she became president of the United States, without naming the potential volume of assistance.
Trump has often criticized the large allocation of funds to Ukraine and called Vladimir Zelensky “the greatest huckster” for his ability to negotiate financial aid with allies. Judging by the plan to end the war presented by Trump's advisers, his future administration may indeed cut aid to Kiev. Ukraine will receive more American weapons only when it enters into peace negotiations with Russia. The plan also contains demands on Moscow: if Russia continues to refuse negotiations, the United States will increase support for Kyiv.
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Trump is confident that he will be able to reconcile Russia and Ukraine: he talked about his good relations with both Vladimir Putin and Vladimir Zelensky and promised that immediately after the elections he would organize negotiations between the warring countries. At the same time, Trump did not directly answer the question of whether he would like Ukraine to win the conflict.
Harris refuses to negotiate one-on-one with Vladimir Putin and insists on Ukraine's participation in resolving the conflict. She called Russia's proposals to end the war "dangerous and unacceptable" and called Putin " a dictator who would eat [Trump] for lunch."
“If Donald Trump were president, Putin would be sitting in Kiev right now,” Harris said .
First reactions
Harris has not made any major announcements since the polls closed. She did not speak at Howard University, her alma mater, where students were waiting for her. It was expected that at this meeting she would address the nation and at least thank her supporters. Campaign co-chair Cedric Richmond explained that Harris would speak the next day.
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“We still have to count the votes. We still have states whose results have not yet been announced. We will continue to fight throughout the night to make sure that every vote is counted, that every voice is heard,” he said .
Trump named himself the 47th President of the United States even before all the votes were fully counted. He wascongratulated by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who called the Republican’s victory “the greatest comeback in American political history.” Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky also congratulated Trump.
In a speech to supporters in Florida, Trump recalled two assassination attempts he survived. He said that God spared his life for the greater purpose of saving America and restoring its greatness. “Now we will accomplish this mission together,” concluded the future US President.
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Photo: Brian Snyder / Reuters Author: Kholod editors