Pick your battles

Ukraine is prioritising holding its ground in Russia’s Kursk region as Russia continues to advance in Donbas

While Ukrainian troops are being forced to cede more territory to Russian forces in Donbas, Kyiv continues to press its advantage in Russia’s western Kursk region, which it has partially occupied since August, aware of its value as a potential bargaining chip in the increasingly inevitable peace talks.

Russia managed to briefly turn the tide in the Kursk region during the autumn by deploying up to 11,000 North Korean soldiers to help it retake Ukrainian-held territory, but regaining control of the entire region has nevertheless remained elusive. At the same time, there have already been an estimated 3,000 North Korean casualties — some 300 dead and 2,700 wounded — since their deployment in October, according to a briefing by South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) on Monday.

The previous day, the NIS also confirmed the capture of two North Korean soldiers by the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) in the Kursk region, adding that one of the captured soldiers had reported “considerable” casualty levels for the North Korean troops. Ukraine’s security service released footage of the captured soldiers on Saturday, in which one of the prisoners said he had been told by his superiors that his unit was taking part in a training exercise.

Ukrainian military expert Ivan Stupak told Novaya Gazeta Europe that the captured North Korean soldiers were likely to be simple conscripts with no access to significant intelligence. While one of them has expressed hopes of being exchanged in a swap with Russia, the other has indicated that he wants to remain in Ukraine. “Perhaps he’ll be able to approach other North Korean soldiers and convince them to surrender rather than be fed into this meat grinder,” Stupak suggests.

It is not clear where the North Koreans were captured, but it probably happened during the AFU’s recent sudden advance in the region which it announced in early January, whose objectives Israeli military expert David Sharp described as “difficult to fully explain”.

“It seems that the Ukrainians wanted to surprise the Russians and gain a local advantage,” Sharp said, noting however that the AFU had so far not managed to gain significant new ground in the region or seize any new settlements in their fresh new offensive.

“It is clear that the Ukrainian military made no serious progress in the January offensive.”

“It is clear that the Ukrainian military made no serious progress in the January offensive,” Stupak agrees, adding that the main aim of the latest advance had been “showing that Putin is weak, that Ukraine can not only defend itself, but also attack”, creating a new wave of displaced Kursk region residents and “giving the Ukrainian people something to be happy about”.

Another goal of the operation may have been to disrupt Russia’s strategy in the Kursk region, where its troops have been advancing on the Kyiv-held town of Sudzha and threatening to cut off a key road leading to Ukraine’s Sumy region that has been used to supply AFU units, Stupak continued.

The sudden advance in the Kursk region may also have served to divert the Russian army’s attention from other parts of the frontline — namely in Donbas, where Russian troops are closing in on the strategically important city of Pokrovsk, which is now the “hottest spot” on the entire frontline, with up to 300 clashes recorded in the area each week, according to Stupak.

The Russian military has also advanced a full kilometre into the battleground town of Chasiv Yar and has continued its advance on Toretsk, with both towns now essentially under full Russian control, according to Ukrainian military analysts DeepState.

If Russia manages to advance further into the region and form a “triangle” between Chasiv Yar, Druzhkivka, to the west, and Pokrovsk, northwest of the two, it might be able to encircle thousands of AFU soldiers fighting in Donbas, who will be forced to surrender if supplies are cut off, Stupak said.

However, Sharp does not believe that the AFU is in any significant danger of being surrounded in this area of the frontline, as, in his opinion, Russia simply does not have the requisite manpower to penetrate Ukrainian defences that deeply.

Nevertheless, Ukrainian forces could find themselves in real danger of being surrounded near Pokrovsk, where the Russsians are advancing from several directions, Sharp notes. If Russia succeeds in cutting off Pokrovsk from its supply lines, the AFU units deployed there would be forced to surrender. He also stressed that the tide would be unlikely to turn in Ukraine’s favour unless it mobilised new reserves to fight in the area.

“Russia simply does not have the requisite manpower to penetrate Ukrainian defences that deeply.”

For now, it appears that Kyiv is prioritising holding Russian territory in the Kursk region over defending its own in Donbas, Sharp notes, adding that Ukraine likely hopes to use the Kursk region as a bargaining chip in the event of prospective talks with Donald Trump, whose inauguration as US president will take place next week.

Though the Ukrainians are unlikely to move deeper into the Kursk region any time soon, their presence in the region will remain a significant pressure point for the Kremlin, Stupak points out, even if he doubts how much weight Kursk can carry in any potential negotiations.

“It’s hard to imagine the seized land being exchanged for a comparable piece of occupied Ukrainian territory,” he says, adding that the Kremlin may not even consider “500 square kilometres of Russian territory as a serious argument in the dispute”.