Breaking points

Russia’s ongoing advance has plunged five key areas of Ukraine’s defense into simultaneous crisis

Like our earlier reports on the combat situation in Ukraine, this article takes stock of the recent developments on the battlefield based on open-source information. Meduza has condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine from the very start, and our detailed military analyses are part of our commitment to objective reporting on a war we firmly oppose.

Our map is based exclusively on open-source photos and videos, most of them posted by eyewitnesses on social media. We collect available evidence and determine its geolocation markers, adding only the photos and videos that clear this process. Meduza doesn’t try to track the conflict in real time; the data reflected on the map are typically at least 48 hours old.

Key updates as of August 3, 2024

The defense crisis for Ukraine’s Armed Forces (AFU) along the 100-kilometer (62-mile) arc around Avdiivka is worsening. At the end of July, after capturing the village of Prohres between Avdiivka and Pokrovsk, Russian troops outflanked and reached the rear of Ukrainian units defending nearby front lines, forcing them to abandon their positions. Even tank-supported counterattacks by the AFU failed to halt the advance. As a result, the Russian army pushed several kilometers closer to Pokrovsk, a critical logistics hub for Ukrainian forces in Donbas. It’s still unclear how the Ukrainian command can stabilize the situation.

Additionally, despite moving in reserves, the Ukrainian army continues to lose positions in the villages of Niu-York and Zalizne in the Toretsk urban area. The troops between these villages are already at risk of being encircled. Furthermore, the Russian army has managed to cross the Siverskyi Donets–Donbas Canal in Chasiv Yar and establish a small bridgehead on its western bank. Reinforcing positions around Pokrovsk, Toretsk, and Chasiv Yar is difficult for Ukraine as defense crises are also brewing in other areas, particularly in southern Donbas.

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The Pokrovsk sector

After capturing the village of Prohres, Russian forces advanced further along the Ocheretyne-Pokrovsk railway, as well as to the north and south of it. Drone footage from both sides shows that Russian troops, having repelled small tank counterattacks, have reached the villages of Vesele, Zhelanne, and Tymofiivka. The village of Vovche, south of Prohres, has also been captured.

The Ukrainian OSINT project DeepState, which works closely with the country’s Defense Ministry, paints an even bleaker picture. According to their data (which has not been independently verified by video or photographs), Vesele and Tymofiivka have already been captured, and Russian troops have bypassed Zhelanne from the north.

The pace of the Russian advance suggests there’s a gap several kilometers wide in the AFU’s defenses that the Ukrainian command has been unable to close over the past week. This could lead to further territorial losses and allow the Russian army to advance along the railway toward Pokrovsk, as well as northward toward the Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka-Chasiv Yar highway. This threatens to jeopardize the AFU’s established logistics along the entire front from Pokrovsk to Chasiv Yar, potentially leading to new defense crises.

Toretsk

Russian troops have taken the center of the village of Zalizne, including most of the multi-story residential area where the main AFU fortified area was located. They’ve reached the base of the spoil tip (an artificial hill) north of Zalizne. Behind it lies the city of Toretsk, the primary target of the Russian offensive.

To the west of Zalizne, Russian forces have advanced several kilometers toward the village of Niu-York. Meanwhile, in the center of Niu-York, the Russian army is attempting to advance northeast toward the group storming Zalizne. This puts the Ukrainian troops between the villages at risk of encirclement. If the dynamics of the Russian offensive don’t change, the AFU will soon have to retreat from fortifications built here since 2015.

Chasiv Yar

Videos have emerged showing Russian forces attacking on the western side of the Siverskyi Donets–Donbas Canal in Chasiv Yar. This advance was facilitated by the capture of the Kanal microdistrict on the eastern bank in July. For now, Russian troops are operating in a narrow strip along the canal bank between the railway bridge and the area where the canal flows underground through pipes, near the Kanal microdistrict. If the AFU allow Russian forces to entrench there, the situation in Chasiv Yar could sharply deteriorate.

Krasnohorivka

Russian forces have captured the entire center of Krasnohorivka, a city situated between the Avdiivka front and the long-occupied Marinka. It took them over six months to achieve this, as fighting in Krasnohorivka began last winter. Although the assault was prolonged, its conclusion was swift. Russian troops broke through the northern and western outskirts, likely forcing Ukrainian forces to abandon the central high-rise residential area to avoid encirclement.

The collapse of the defense in central Krasnohorivka suggests that the AFU are experiencing a shortage of manpower in the area. This could allow Russian forces to advance south toward the city of Kurakhove, the main logistics hub for Ukrainian forces in southern Donbas.

Vuhledar

The Russian army has managed to cut off the main supply route to a major Ukrainian fortified area in southern Donbas around the city of Vuhledar. The road that previously supplied the Vuhledar group runs from Kurakhove through the village of Kostiantynivka, and then south to Vuhledar, passing by the tall and sturdy industrial buildings of the Pivdennodonbaska 1 and Pivdennodonbaska 3 coal mines in the village of Vodyane. Since the winter of 2022, Russian aviation has been constantly bombing these mines, but this hasn’t been enough to breach the Ukrainian defense in Vuhledar.

Now, Russian troops have reached the Kurakhove-Vuhledar road south of the village of Kostiantynivka (where they raised a flag, highlighting the significance of this achievement for the Russian command). They’ve captured the southern outskirts of Kostiantynivka itself and have advanced almost up to the Pivdennodonbaska 1 mine. If Ukrainian forces can’t push the Russians back from the road, the entire logistics system supplying Vuhledar will need to be changed to rely more on rural roads to the north and west of the city, a task that will be especially difficult during the fall rains.

Vuhledar has been shielding the entire southern part of the Ukrainian defense in Donbas. The worsening situation there could lead to a crisis in the Kurakhove and Velyka Novosilka areas, south of which Russian forces are also continuing a slow advance.

The red dots show recent events, and the gray dots show earlier events. Black indicates the approximate contact line as of the last update; the red and blue areas mark places occupied (since early September) by Russian and Ukrainian forces. Clicking on them will provide additional information. Air strikes are marked with a special icon, ground operations with dots. Click on the point on the map to pull up source links.

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