About the future

It was determined. Not today, of course. Today - so. Another leash is simple. This all will continue until the beneficiary of today's event is laid forward. That is, with the routine course of events - a decade and a half. He will decrepit, more and more often become a character of jokes, but the resource is enough to hold on to power to the last. Yes, and the yard will not allow to leave, even if he wanted to. They will come up with something. Already invented. Too much stolen, too serious risks in case of departure.

Intra -elite conflict? Well, yes, on everyone sitting behind the teeth, there is no longer enough, and periodically, from behind the wall, someone will be more alien to the pitchfork. But they will not touch it. The palane is cowardly, and there is no Bennigsen with a tobacker there.

No reform. No economic. No political - God forbid. The Constitution or any other scenery, of course, can be changed, if necessary, so as not to change anything in essence.

In the best case, the whole economy will slowly rot, periodically arranging small wars around the perimeter and shaking the population of the war by the serious war. The country-rogue can live for a long time

In the best case, the whole economy will slowly rot, periodically arranging small wars around the perimeter and shaking the population of the war by the serious war. The country-rogue can live for a long time. There are examples. Will the boundaries close? Perhaps, but not tomorrow. Here you need a paranoia attack more than the present. As for mass repressions. Nemassov will be. There will be prisons for the disrespectful expression of a person (the law on insulting Majesty, I think, is quite real and will be accepted with great enthusiasm). There will be political killings. Party, but more massive than already happened. And, of course, they will try to build a wall on the Internet (there is only a matter of time and technological capabilities).

Here we live with this at best. There are also worse options, of course. But better - they are not visible.
What to do with this happiness? For those who are not enthusiastic about what is happening, there are several life strategies, as it seems to me.

1) emigration, so far is possible. The world is big. Leave and forget. Young, energetic, not prone to sentimentality - just right.

2) internal emigration. Old Soviet experience for those who remember. Minimize contact with the state and media. Read good books. Listen to good music. To cultivate your garden. But at the same time, to understand that Leviathan our flashes, offended by feelings and sacred scrapers has enough resources to be in front of your “inner Mongolia” at any time and spoil your life in the most unpredictable way.

3) Politics? Since the essence of politics is a struggle for power, here - without illusions. In the sense of humanizing the surrounding reality, nothing serious will be able to do until those who hope to change something will be ready to take hundreds of thousands of people to the street-millionaires. And these people will not be ready to go under police batons. A real honest policy in the coming years will only be possible as dissident experience. With all the ensuing ... In this sense, it is useful, like all resistance to the current everything. But only in this sense.

4) human rights? Yes, someone will be able to help. But the risks of this work will also constantly increase. I think the further, the more real trade unions will be in demand. After all, we will live worse.

5) Honest work in the remaining living media or as an independent journalist? Someone will be able to help, some kind of obsteted freak from the third echelon of the authorities even to plant. But no more. The farther, the more it will also be dissident experience. There will also be more risks here. However, this work has a reason as a fixation for the history of the present. When, after a decade and a half, they will begin to rake out what will remain here, the current publications will be useful in different sense. Not only historians, but also justice.

In any case, it is very useful not to build illusions. In particular, do not fool the head to yourself or the other about the possibility of dialogue with the imam, its yard, governors and others. Appreciate the nearby circle of friends and relatives. Even if one of them has set a checkmark for the current one today-to accept it for a given. Pity and forgive.)
Understand that winter will be very long. At the same time, it is prepared for any force majeure (for example, oil of ten dollars per barrel or something else can significantly accelerate the decay processes in our imamat). But do not flatterize.

Victor Mushnik - Tomsk historian and journalist

The "Opinion" expressed in the heading of the point of view may not coincide with the position of the editorial office