The problems that Barack Obama have to solve

Barack Obama: I, Barak Khussain Obama, solemnly swear that I will honestly act as the president of the United States and observe the United States Constitution as far as I have my strength. God help me.

Irina Lagunina: The 44th President of the United States Barack Obama took the oath of allegiance to the constitution. America has discovered a new generation of leaders. Obama came to power, promising faith and change.

Barack Obama: Today we gathered here because we chose hope, not fear, the unity of interests preferred to conflicts and disagreements. / .../ The time has come to raise the spirit, choose the best story for yourself, to carry this precious gift with you, this great idea that is transmitted from generation to generation, this is the message of God, that everyone is equal, everyone is free, and everyone is worthy of full happiness.

Irina Lagunina: And the personal choice of Barack Obama at the inauguration was singer Aretn Franklin.

Arets Franklin: The spirit of freedom, pride in the country and hopes in the words of this song - this is exactly what Barack Obama is trying to instill with every performance. But already on January 21, he will have to deal with absolutely specific world and home problems, the circle of which we will outline today. Let's start with international politics. Our interlocutor today is Anthony Corddesman, a leading researcher at the Washington Center for International and Strategic Research. On the eve of the Inauguration Day, the information agencies left the headlines - Israel will withdraw troops from Gaza before the beginning of the ceremony in Washington. So we will start with a crisis in gas? In recent months, President Bush tried intensively to achieve at least some new advancement in the Arab-Israeli settlement, but to no avail.

Anthony Corddesman: The Obama administration has inherited a situation in which quick changes and reforms are impossible. But, nevertheless, this is a region in which changes can be made over time. If you look at the Arab-Israeli crisis, it can be seen that it is necessary to find some kind of stable truce, which, on the one hand, would provide an Israel of security guarantees, and on the other, it would go further than just stopping military operations in the gas, give the Palestinians the opportunity to develop economically, live in safety and build the state. But if you look at how the Palestinian movement itself is fragmented, how Israeli political structures are different about the problem, it becomes clear that years of effort will take, that this will require the administration to devote a lot of time to this problem.

Irina Lagunina: There is also Iraq, where the two branches of Islam still cannot agree among themselves, which leads to violence and bloodshed. And at this time, the Pentagon draws plans to withdraw most of the American troops - in accordance with the plans of Barack Obama, to withdraw troops over the next 16 months.

Anthony Corddesman: Serious military victories were won there, but they highlighted political problems and split within Iraqi society - not just Kurds against Arabs or Sunnis against Shiites, but political fragmentation within all these religious and ethnic groups. So it will take time and active diplomatic efforts, as well as help in the preparation of effective Iraqi security forces in order to bring Iraq closer to a more stable political system.

Irina Lagunina: In the last 30 years, Washington’s relationship with Tehran has remained very bad, and in recent years - after information appeared about Iran’s nuclear program - these relations became completely stretched. The Bush administration refused to sit down at the negotiating table with the Akhmadinjad government. Obama said he was ready to talk without any preliminary conditions. After this statement, will the administration who came to the White House be easier to establish relations with the Iranian regime?

Anthony Corddesman: Nothing happens with Iran quickly and simply. There are talk about some kind of general agreement or just about dialogue for the sake of dialogue. But in order for the United States to create a stable relationship with Iran, not only a dialogue is needed, it is necessary that Iran is ready to change their attitude to the Arab-Israeli conflict and Israel's safety, to the problem of the development of nuclear weapons, to a clearly desire to acquire a long-range radius of action, to the active expansion of their military capabilities for the asymmetric war in the area Persian Gulf, which will allow him to threaten neighbors. Suddenly and quickly it will not happen. So what you can actually have a conversation about constant contacts. And they must be accompanied by aggressive diplomacy, diplomacy, which offers both gingerbread and whip.

Irina Lagunina: At the beginning of the year, Russia left part of Europe in the cold due to a dispute with Ukraine. And critics of Moscow say that the Kremlin uses energy resources as a weapon. How will the Obama administration respond to this call?

Anthony Corddesman: The Obama administration will have to decide to what extent they want to resist Russia, and to which - to be patient, negotiate and work with the Kremlin. Recently - under the administrations of both Bill Clinton and George Bush - there was a tendency to resist Russia. The trend is not always intentional, but covering almost all Russian borders-not only in those countries that were previously part of the NATO Pact-Warsaw Treaty, but also in Ukraine, in the Caspian region and, due to the terror war in Central Asia. The expansion of Western influence was carried out in a form that, from the point of view of Russia, was more a provocation than the support of democracy or an attempt to develop Europe. If the Obama administration manages to find the best way to build relations with Russia, maybe on less confrontation, then it will be able to find a more stable solution to these problems. But again, years will take this.

Irina Lagunina: One of the most difficult questions is Afghanistan and Pakistan. At what end to take this problem?

Anthony Corddesman: We do not know what position the Obama administration will take in Afghanistan. The same applies to Pakistan. Now these two countries are one conflict. It is impossible to protect Afghanistan without cooperation and strengthen the security of Pakistan. But it must be borne in mind that when we talk about the war with terror, we no longer talk about Afghanistan, and we are not talking about Iraq - he was never in the center of this war. We are talking about Pakistan. Now we are talking about the actual doubling of the military presence in Afghanistan during the years of George Bush and the new ways to provide economic assistance so that it is effective and not corrupt. And these are the plans that the Bush administration adopted, and wrote them to the budget, without even proceeding yet to their execution. So the Obama administration will inherit plans and strategy that have not yet been tested, but have already become a legacy.

Irina Lagunina: Anthony Cordesman, a leading researcher at the Washington Center for Strategic and International Studies. With an equal challenge, the new president will encounter in his country. Barack Obama has already determined that about $ 800 billion from the country's budget will be required to stimulate the economy. Some say that this clearly will not be enough to get the economy out of the crisis. Others believe that Obama went too far in support to the state and in expenses. William Nischanin headed the headquarters of economic advisers to President Ronald Reagan. Now William Niscanen is the chairman of the Washington Analytical Center Cato Institute E.

William Niskanen: There were two interesting experiments in history with similar plans. The first was held by the administrations of President Franklin Roosevelt, which proposed a huge amount of public work. The second was held in Japan in 1990. It was an even more ambitious plan of public work. In the first case, the great depression continued from 1929 to 1940 and ended with the unemployment level of 15 percent just on the eve of World War II. Japan lived the 90s without economic growth. So the historical experience is quite negligent. I do not know a single fiscal plan for stimulating the economy that would largely reduce the depth or duration of the recession.

Irina Lagunina: So do not you think that Obama did not ask for enough money?

William Niskanen: The smaller the better. I mean that if you should not expect a great change, then you should not spend a huge amount of money. Now, and so the budget deficit at the end of this financial year will draw up a trillion dollars without all these plans, based only on those packages of economic stimulation that have already been approved. And all the plans of the new president will only add deficiency. And this is an almost record deficit of the federal budget in peacetime, comparable to the volume of the economy.

Irina Lagunina: Are you worried about the fact that the United States will begin to borrow money abroad?

William Niskanen: In my opinion, we have almost exhausted the opportunity to borrow money, especially among foreigners. Most of the money that we occupied to close our current financial deficit came from China, Japan and oil states. China itself is now experiencing a period of slow growth, Japan in recession, and the income of oil states this year will be significantly reduced due to the fall in oil prices. So our Ministry of Finance has come to an extreme line, behind which we will no longer be able to occupy anything.

Irina Lagunina: That is, you are absolutely against the program of public work that Barack Obama proposed?

William Niskanen: There are types of government spending, which, in principle, make sense. If these proposals are tested for the correspondence of the price of the benefit, then it makes no sense to reject them in the root. And maybe some of the proposals of Barack Obama will undergo this check. I do not want to say that it is generally impossible to improve the state of the economy with the help of state subsidies. But I think that each of his proposals must be critical, and I also think that a small part of his proposals will be able to withstand this check.

Irina Lagunina: William Nischanin headed the headquarters of economic advisers under President Ronalde Reagan. Now William Niscanen is the chairman of the Washington Analytical Center Cato Institute E. The conversation with both experts was recorded by my colleague in Washington Andy Toolie.

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  Irina Lagunina

  Head of Special Projects of Russian Service Radio Liberty

  Laguninai@rferl.org