"The risk of terrorist attacks is increasing"

Are the authorities capable of ensuring the real safety of Russians in the context of an growing terrorist threat

The permission of the FSB to shoot at women and children and the search for an “internal enemy” instead of the search for terrorists: are the authorities capable of ensuring the safety of Russians in the context of an increasing terrorist threat, especially on New Year's holidays?

Many Russian citizens are aware that due to Russian policy in Syria, in the context of the situation with Turkey, terrorism may return to Russia. According to a survey of the Public Opinion Foundation, held in November 2015 after the Paris attack, 73 percent of Russians are sure: in a number of countries, "the likelihood of a triumph comparable in terms of scale is especially high", while almost a third of them (30 percent) are of opinion, the first among this "series of countries" - namely Russia.

And as Vladimir Putin assured during the message to the Federal Assembly in early December 2015, it took almost ten years to break the ridge to the bandits ”:“ We have practically squeezed terrorists from Russia, but we still have an implacable struggle with the remnants of the gang. But this evil still makes itself felt. ”

The last terrorist attacks in Russia, not counting a constant threat in the North Caucasus, occurred at the end of 2013 in Volgograd: on December 29, an explosion in the building of the railway station, and on December 30 in one of the regular trolleybuses. In 2015, on September 30, Russia began an air operation in Syria. In mid -October, representatives of the Islamic State terrorist organization banned in Russia declared Jihad Russia and America, urging Muslims to start a war against those who conduct operations in Syria. And on October 31, in the sky above the Sinai, the Russian Airbus A321 aircraft crashed with tourists returning from Egypt: 224 people died. Russia admits that this is a terrorist attack, but does not talk about the persons involved in it. Responsibility for the death of the airliner was taken by the militants of the group, faithful to the Islamic State terrorist organization prohibited in Russia. Other countries, in particular, Great Britain and the United States, assure: representatives of the IG planned the explosion on board Kogalymavia. Two weeks later, a large series of terrorist attacks occurred in Paris, which was also organized by the adherents of the IG.

Is the threat of terrorist attacks in the country intensifying as a result of the foreign policy of Russia last year? Experts have no doubt about this. This is what political analyst Nikolai Petrov said on this occasion, commenting on December 3, the message of Vladimir Putin:

- The risk of terrorist attacks, of course, increases. At first, it was assumed that the main theme of the President’s message would be just security, and this was talked about a lot even before the events in Turkey, but we saw that this was not entirely true. Some narrow part of the problem for the president is what goals the Russian Federation sets itself in Turkey. And these explanations are related to terrorism. The causal relations are somewhat rearranged. It is clear that in a situation of sharp confrontation with radical Islamists, we increase the threat of their actions, including, in relation to our citizens, which we, in fact, have already encountered.

The head of the Kemerovo region, Aman Tuleyev, on a selective testament on December 21, stated that he received a “anxious” telegram from the director of the FSB and the head of the National Anti -Terrorism Committee Alexander Bortnikov about the increase in the terrorist threat in Russia for the New Year and Christmas in places of mass accumulations of people:

The meeting was broadcast by the STS-Kuzbass channel:

- I received a telegram from the head of the National Anti -Terrorism Committee, director of the FSB, General Alexander Bortnikov, which refers to an increase in the terrorist threat in general in our country and precisely for the New Year, and precisely for Christmas. All kinds of terrorists with a clear goal are already beginning to penetrate the territory of Russia, the goal is one - to commit terrorist attacks and commit them in places of mass accumulation of people. And I repeat, it is during the New Year holidays, so far there are especially many children, you can imagine what cynicism? Honestly, I get a telegram of such a specific targeted alarm for the first time, ” Tuleyev said.

Bortnikov openly did not say anything like that, although a week before Tuleyev’s message he reported on the fight against terrorism in Russia. Then he only spoke about the prevented terrorist attacks and numerous connections of Russians and Russian organizations with IG. And Vladimir Putin, on the day of the security officer, announced 30 FSB -prevented terrorist attacks in Russia.

Are Russian services that ensure security on ground and air transport really cope with their work? A politician, a former deputy chairman of the Russian State Duma Security Committee and a former KGB and FSB officer Gennady Gudkov in the program of Vladimir Kara-Murza, the City of Time, dedicated to the Sinai terrorist attack, said that the matter is not so much in the special services that “gained certain experience”, but in ineffective combustion of corruption:

- Many of our systems and regime measures are “holes” due to corruption. For example, there are checkpoints, and we can drive them for a bribe. Some detentions are held, but you can pay off for cash. That is, we have a certain activity of special services and the accumulated experience are leveled, unfortunately, by the cornation of the entire state system as a whole. And this creates a very big risk for citizens. I have said many times that corruption kills, and this is not a turn of speech, it is an absolutely real thing. Corruption kills, because the bomb served in the city center, which was supposed to be stopped by some kind of cordon, or prescribed terrorists who should have been discovered when checking passports, lead to the fact that people are dying ...

If we evaluate the reliability of our law enforcement system, because the special services, of course, are an important component, but only one of the row of components, then in general its reliability is not very high. Indeed, in Russia, terrorist attacks occur with frightening regularity. We are just used to them. They do not occur in the capital, but they occur in cities, republics and regions nearby to the North Caucasus. They did not stop, and today there are a place to be shootings, and shelling, and bombs, and grenades - anything.

That is, Russia is a country that is in a state of permanent war with terrorism, with homegrown terrorism. He, perhaps, has some kind of international support, but in general it is homegrown. And now there may be an exacerbation. Because our homegrown terrorists, Islamic groups that embark on a radical path can receive reinforcements in the form of weapons, explosives, instructors, money, passports. And they can activate their criminal subversive work, commit a number of terrorist attacks in our cities. And for this it will not be necessary to throw someone from Syria and create some kind of network of new refugees, we have enough of their frostbitten heads, which are ready to destroy their like only because they are praying incorrectly or not so baptized, ”says Gennady Gudkov.

A similar opinion is held by State Duma deputy Dmitry Gudkov . He is outraged that in the last weeks of December in the third reading - out of turn - amendments to the Law on the FSB were hastily adopted by State Duma deputies.

Under the pretext of fighting terrorism, the document allows the FSB to use weapons when accumulating people "in order to prevent a terrorist attack, release hostages and repel group armed attacks." Partially, this bill repeats the "Law of Sadists" - on the application of force and special equipment regarding prisoners for violation of the regime of detention or, for example, if there are suspicions of the escape planning. Military persons of the Federal Security Service are allowed to use special equipment "to suppress the riots and block the movement of groups of persons performing illegal actions." FSB officers will also be able to use force when detaining people if they consider that they are resisted. Under the same pretext of fighting terrorism, other laws have recently been initiated recently aimed at finding an “internal enemy” than to search for terrorists. Dmitry Gudkov says that the deputies are “not fools” and everything is aware, but the instructions “from above” come:

- Any normal person should worry the risks of terrorist attacks: both deputies and the government are also worried about the possibility of terrorist attacks. But what they offer to combat terrorism, has nothing to do with the fight against terrorism. Of course, I am not a big specialist in this matter, but it is completely clear that if we want to fight terrorism, serious operational work is needed: with implementations, etc. Our special services, apparently, are not very ready for this. All laws are adopted not to combat terrorism, but to combat the so -called internal and external enemies. And here is terrorism and the opportunity to use the FSB and other departments to use force during acceleration, for example, mass demonstrations that our courts give out as riots? I see no connection.

Or, for example, biometrics: it will seriously not help in the fight against terrorism, because for starters we must defeat corruption in these rows. Law enforcement agencies should not engage in business and the fight against the opposition, but their duties. To do this, you need parliamentary control, an independent, at least, court. Without this, the law enforcement system is not able to fight with crime or terrorism. If you give unlimited uncontrolled possibilities, any structure, and especially organs, becomes ineffective and corrupt. We must really create elements of public parliamentary control over the activities of law enforcement agencies to ask: how did the attack, who investigated and which were prevented? So that this information has special commissions of special control and investigation.

Then we will have objective information, and the security forces will realize that they are controlled by society and parliament, this will force them to work more professional. No need to give them additional powers at all. The deputies understand everything, there are no fools here, it is another matter that our parliament is not an independent institution of power, which can pursue an independent policy. They lowered the decision from above - the deputies supported. Instead of protecting citizens from terrorist attacks, the best investigators, for example, from Volgograd, are sent to Moscow to combat the opposition.

And you need to abandon foreign policy adventures. When we started a military operation in Syria, all normal experts, all professionals warned: it was the military operation in Syria that creates serious risks of repeating terrorist attacks already in Russia. Actually, the plane is the first bell, unfortunately, says Dmitry Gudkov.

The editor -in -chief of the AGentura.ru site Andrei Soldatov is sure that the attacks always find the Russian special services "at a certain extent by surprise." And now, in connection with the growing threat of terrorism within the country, due to the Jihad declared by Russia, which is realized by the townsfolk and which the authorities warn, this feeling does not disappear. It is impossible to guarantee security using enhanced passive protection methods - frames of metal detectors, selective inspections, etc. - it is impossible: it is impossible:

- This is possible only in the framework of work within terrorist organizations. And, in fact, it is problematic to assess the successes of Russian special services in this sense, since this is the most closed area. Bortnikov’s similar statements and warnings in the regions are a long -established practice, it is simply realized at different levels. Sometimes we are talking about sending warnings at the level of governors, sometimes at the level of local law enforcement agencies. But basically, these statements are extremely unclean, they are extremely rarely listed by the names of the immediate persons or objects that will be attacked-they are a kind of guarantee for the special services that if something happens, then at least they warned. I'm afraid that this is just part of the current practice - to send warnings before the holidays. This is the most attractive time for conducting terrorist attacks.

- Two months ago, you said that "we do not understand the nature of the terrorist threat that now exists for Russia, and the attacks always find the special services by surprise." Now they can also be taken by surprise, given that even the inhabitants understand that in connection with the military operation in Syria, the threat of terrorist attacks is increasing, jihad declared Russia?

- Unfortunately, I still have this feeling, because even the adopted and discussed amendments that expand the powers of the FSB are in doubt from the point of view of protecting human rights, but they also obviously respond to a completely different terrorist threat than the threat that threatens us all. Because we are talking about allowing the FSB to shoot terrorists in places of accumulation of people. We perfectly understand that such measures with all their dubious nature can help only if a large group of terrorists burst somewhere and begins to do something with a large crowd of people. But this measure is absolutely useless and meaningless for the struggle, for example, with Suycid Shahids. And all the time I have the feeling that even when the special services expand their powers, they try to fight the threat that is less relevant. And to prevent relevant threats, nothing is made or not enough.

A combination of several factors is still working here. There is such a submission within the special services and the state apparatus that if there is a certain amount of time, a year and a half, there are no terrorist attacks, then people begin to calm down. And then the second factor enters, which is very important, namely the fact that the Russian special services are almost uncontrollable. Since there is no pressure from the outside - neither from the side of the society, nor from the part of the parliament, nor from the Kremlin, where they are also quite poorly represented what is happening inside the special services - there is no external factor that would constantly put the tasks before the special services: to think and work to continue, not to calm down on what has been achieved, ”said the editor -in -chief of the AGENTURA website. ru Andrey Soldatov .

According to NAK, in 2015 it was possible to reduce terrorist activity by 2.5 times. The efforts were directed mainly to the militants of the terrorist organization "Imrat Caucasus". As for the IG: “Of the 26 leaders of the gangs, swore to ISIS, 20 were neutralized,” said the director of the FSB Alexander Bortnikov at the meeting on December 15.

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  Dinara Setdikova

  Information Service editor of the RS