Condition of a percentage

The annual increase in private deposits in Russian banks in October and November accelerated again after slowing down in September and, according to the Central Bank, exceeded 21%. This is only a little lower than the record levels of May and June this year, but almost a third less than in the spring of 2011, when the growth reached 28-29%.

Slow down sharply contrasted at the rate of growth in consumer lending. In February-March last year, they made up 16-18%, and this fall-already 41-42%. And only in the last three or four months, the continuous increase in the volume of lending to citizens has stopped for almost three years.

During the beginning of 2011, a certain “saturation” of savings has been manifested, says Natalia Berezina, an analyst with the Uralsib Capital investment company. Then, two years ago, the effect of the relatively low base of the previous two to three years affected, when the deposits grew slowly. “Now we are more likely to talk about some fluctuations in the very inclination of the population to save, which depends on its general macroeconomic sensations, forecasts for the future.”

However, at the beginning of last year, inflation exceeded deposits, that is, real income on them turned out to be negative. Today-on the contrary, interest rates on deposits in banks are 1.5-2 times higher than the current price growth rate. And theoretically, interest with such savings should increase.

Like loans, deposits in banks cannot constantly grow as rapidly as it was two years ago, says Nomos-Bank analyst Andrei Mikhailov . In addition, the real incomes of the population are now growing slowly, and loan rates have begun to increase. “And many depositors who kept deposits as a first contribution on a loan began to take these loans and, accordingly, withdraw money from deposits.”

De facto and de jure

On Tuesday this week, the State Duma approved in the first reading the draft law providing the Central Bank of Russia The right to limit interest rates on bank deposits. Having entered into force, he actually only legitimize the current practice, which also existed in 2008-2010 as an anti-crisis measure.

In half of the 12 banks, which the Central Bank in 2008 limited the deposits, as a result, a license was withdrawn, Mikhail Sukhov, Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank, said in the State Duma. “A deposit, attracted at a high percentage and placed in high -risk assets, is, excuse me, a rotten, incorrect banking product,” he explained (quote for Banki.ru).

For three years, the Bank of Russia has been monitoring private deposits in ten Russian banks, the largest deposits attracted in terms of volume. The average level of their maximum bets is considered a guideline for the market as a whole. In particular, in the first decade of December, it amounted to 9.65% per annum. Exceeding one or another Russian bank of this threshold level by more than two percentage points becomes a reason for special attention to it from the Central Bank.

Accordingly, the maximum level of bets on private deposits offered today by Russian commercial banks is approximately 12-13% per annum, not reaching 14%, explains Andrei Mikhailov. With the entry of the new law, into force (more precisely, amendments to the current law “On the Central Bank of the Russian Federation”), it is planned only to change the methodology of calculating the “estimated” rate. The Central Bank will determine it by a group of banks, which, which are taken together, at the moment, accounts for two -thirds of the total volume of private bank deposits in the country.

In general, it would be better for the economy if we allow a greater scatter of permissible bets, Natalia Berezina believes. “According to the business model itself, retail banks differ significantly from universal or corporate. And the maximum rates, in fact, will be tracked only on large universal banks, but not by retail.”

Now the Central Bank will also have a legally executed right to demand from certain banks to reduce bets if it considers them overstated, as well as take the most stringent measures - up to the recall of licenses, if it does not agree with its requirements, says Andrei Mikhailov. “Today it is done in a recommendatory or voluntary-compulsory manner.”

Abroad

In the banking legislation of countries such as the United States or Germany, the provisions that the Central Bank has the right to regulate interest rates on deposits.

Once this practice in the United States existed, but it has long been abandoned, explains James Bart California, an employee of a research institute in California. American banks themselves decide what percentage to pay their depositors. The exception, continues Bart, is made up to demand, for which, as a rule, interest is not paid. And this is regulated by the federal authorities. But the share of such deposits in general volume in the United States is extremely small.

For comparison, in Russia, there is a 17% of the total amount of private bank deposits for updated deposits and for up to 30 days (data from the Central Bank at the beginning of December). Another 22% - to deposits from one month to a year. The main component is 60% - deposits for a period of more than one year.

Of course, if some bank in the United States suddenly offers depositors unusually high interest, this will attract the attention of the regulatory department-at the state level or federal, continues James Bart. “As a rule, banks experiencing problems and in need of money resort to such practice. And in order to pay with depositors, they invest in risky assets, hoping to get more profit. In such cases, the regulator can intervene.”

In Germany, Bundesbank, according to the legislation, also has no right to directly interfere in the process of establishing interest rates by commercial banks, says Michael Bretz , a member of the German Association of CreditreforM. Moreover, this applies to bets not only on deposits, but also for issued loans.

“In Germany, there is no law at all that would allow banks to dictate the level of certain bets under some circumstances,” says Bretz. “Although, of course, their obvious overestimation may ultimately turn into criminal liability for the leaders of a bank.”

Deposit insurance

The Russian bill, which allows the Central Bank to limit deposit rates, should also be considered in the context of the plans for the upcoming increase in the insurance limit for depositors in the event of bankruptcy of the bank - from the current 700 thousand rubles to one million rubles. The details of the new scheme are still being discussed, but the fundamental decision was made by the government in early October.

Today, about 98% of all private deposits are fully insured in Russia, said Pavel Medvedev, former chairman of the State Duma of Banking Law. But in volume they make up less than half. The rest falls on the lot of the largest deposits.

“If the“ ceiling ”of insurance payments will be increased, then even more deposits will be completely insured,” Medvedev continues. “In addition, many depositors lay out their savings in different banks in order to meet the current insurance limit in each of them. With an increase in the limit, the need for such crushing is reduced.”

Plans of legislative restriction of deposits and increase insurance payments are really partly connected, agrees Andrei Mikhailov. In particular, the payment scheme for increased risk supported by the Central Bank is discussed: banks offering their customers higher interest on deposits will have to pay more deposits to the State Fund for Insurance of Deposits than other banks, where rates are lower.

Both legislative innovations can be adopted independently of each other, Mikhailov believes. “The Law on increasing insurance payments actually regulates the deposit insurance fund, while the stability of the banking system, by reducing risks in it, is regulated, inter alia, a restriction of growth in deposits.”