Debats and "Romnezia"

Judging by polls carried out immediately after television, they ended with a small advantage of Barack Obama, but did not change the overall picture of the confrontation of two candidates. The vast victory of Romny in the first debate sharply raised his presidential chances in the eyes of voters, he eliminated the gap in the ratings from the president. This situation was preserved after the second debate. A few days after the second debate, the chances of Barack Obama and Mitt Romni were virtually equal to victory. According to political scientist John Samples from the Cato's Washington Institute, the second round of debate confirmed a new political given: Mitt Romny had real chances of winning the election:

- What we saw after the first debate plunged into the bewilderment of many analysts, since before the polemic on television had never led to a change in the balance of forces shortly before the election. Before television debate, President Obama had an advantage that was especially noticeable in the Americans assessing his personal qualities, he was also preferred as a leader who could improve the economic situation. It seemed that Barack Obama was going to victory. After two rounds of debate, Romny's personal ratings rose sharply. Now the outcome of the elections cannot be predicted, but for the first time in many months Mitt Romny had real chances of victory.

- Is it possible to assume what such a jerk of Romny is caused?

- Partly, this can be explained by the fact that the support of the president part of the electorate was not so firm. After the first debate, his ratings on average fell by three percent, while Romny ratings rose by almost four. The first debates could give rise to doubts about Obama’s candidacy among the hesitation of voters, while Romny showed himself as much more acceptable than in the past of the candidate. The second debates passed, as expected: the president resolutely attacked, trying to take revenge for defeat, but they did not change the balance of power. I suspect that the third, last tour of the debate will not bring fundamental changes in the balance of forces. This can happen if one of the candidates looks very weak. But given how much strength they give preparations for the third debate, given that they have the experience of two rounds of debate, we can assume that the polemic will end with a draw. So the outcome of the elections will most likely be determined over the past three weeks of the election campaign by those five percent of the hesitation of vibrating voters who have not yet made their choice.

- What, in your opinion, can determine their choice?

- I think that these people will prefer a candidate who will convince them that he is able to change the situation in the country for the better. This layer of voters, who did not really pay attention to the course of the election campaign, is waiting, in my opinion, from the president of evidence that he is ready to change his strategy in order to ensure economic recovery. The president, as it seems to me, is now a more difficult task than Romny. About a year ago, the president himself publicly stated that if people do not feel improvements to the elections, he is over like the president. And this can happen, ”John Samples believes.

According to sociologists, nationwide ratings of Barack Obama and Mitt Romny give only a superficial idea of the presidential chances of candidates. The future owner of the White House will be determined by voters, most likely three or four large hesitation of the states: Ohio, Virginia, Michigan, Florida. The votes of electors from these states will include a balance in favor of one of the candidates. Interestingly, in the struggle for the votes of the electors Romny in recent days, for the first time, Obama was ahead of Obama. According to the calculations of the Real Clear Politics respectable site, on the side of Mitt Romny - 206 votes of electors, Barack Obama - 201 270 votes are required. Since the votes of all electors from the state are received by the candidate for whom the majority of the state population voted, the result of voting in only one state can determine the outcome of the national elections, as happened in 2000 in Florida. Then George Bush Jr. achieved victory, receiving five hundred votes more votes than Albert Mountains.

During the current elections, several districts of Virginia may become such a territory. The Virginians voted for half a century for the Republicans, in the last election they preferred Barack Obama. At the current - their voices are vital to Mitt Romny. On October 18, President Obama went to Virginia. During a rally with the participation of nine thousand voters, he presented the country with a new term - Romnezia, which sounded in the lips of the president as a medical diagnosis. Barack Obama accused his opponent of protecting the centrist positions on social and economic issues during the debate, forgot about his conservative promises given during the primary campaign to the Republicans.