The development of the World Communications and Computer Technology network gains the features of the economic revolution. Some common features of this revolution have recently been outlined by the American magazine "Forbes", with the forecasts of which Alexander Kostinsky will introduce you today.
Then Dmitry Atlas will continue the review of the Linux operating system and the free software market in previous gears.
In conclusion, Sergey Markelov presents the site of the Sunday group.
Radio "Freedom", the program "Seventh Continent". Alexander Kostinsky will introduce you to the ideas of Forbes magazine about the technological revolution in the economy.
Alexander Kostinsky:
The development of computer and Internet technologies has been exclusively successful recently. They sharply change not only the ideas about the future, but also the economic indicators of today. Those countries that were the first to resolutely master the ocean of digital technologies break forward. No wonder the cautious Alan Grinspin, who heads the federal reserve system - actually the Central Bank of the United States - recently stated that the country entered into sustainable and long -term growth strip. Klondike and Eldorado, the oil fields of the Persian Gulf, diamond placers of South Africa and Yakutia fade in front of the straightening giant of the California Silicon Valley.
As far as this process has gone far, the last article by Rick Karlgard says in a serious, not at all computer, American magazine Forbes with the name: "Ten laws of the type of infinity to zero." In an extremely optimistic form, ten main trends in the development of the economy of the next decade are distinguished. The article deserves discussion and commentary, although these processes have already been discussed repeatedly. But their set is original.
The most important sign of changes Carlard considers a decrease in the retail price of equipment this year to one dollar per million computer operations per second. Ten years ago, this figure was five hundred, and twenty - two hundred and fifty thousand dollars. In ten years, this amount of operations will cost less than a cent.
At the same speed, the throughput abilities of the Internet networks grow. The revolution will affect the holy of holies. The price of international telephone negotiations will decrease to one center per minute. And this is with today's optical -fiber highways that miss gigabits of information per second. But at the beginning of the next decade, such an expansion of the channels is expected that the fiber-optic connection will cost the center per hour. Recall that at such a speed of communication, all 40 million storage units of the Russian State Library can be transferred in 10 minutes to any point in our planet. Thus, modern processors and broadband Internet technologies lead to endless access capacities of networks for almost zero fees.
According to Rick Carlard, the consequences of such changes will be quick and radical:
First. Intellectual or smart devices will penetrate into all means of communication, combining them into a huge digital high -speed network. Smart devices are now called powerful microcomputers that control industrial and household appliances. Today in the world there are 400 million personal computers and a billion phones. Ten years later, the global information highway (perhaps it will still be called the Internet) will connect five billion objects. Of these - 3 billion - digital phones and billion - personal computers and high -resolution TVs. It is difficult to agree with the distribution of the author of the article on the types of household appliances, because now it is clearly visible that phones, TVs, pocket and ordinary computers will merge into single products.
Second. Even faster, smart devices will penetrate into ordinary household appliances. In machines for the sale of sweets and cola, gas station, and even toilets, computer boards with Internet access will be built into the toilets. (Why to the toilet? So that the doctor could check your tests daily, and prevent the onset of the development of diseases).
In this idyllic barrel, a spoonful of tar should be added to the honey. After all, total surveillance and unprecedented penetration into private life with all kinds of special services and just dashing journalists will become possible.
Third. According to Rick Carlard, the explosive growth of smart devices related through the network will create a global market for instant and reliable information about goods and services.
Fourth. Intra -finished costs will decrease. The bastard turnover of documents will develop. Trade will go on direct orders, bypassing expensive and bulky warehouse.
Fifth. The main form of trade will be network auctions, where the price of the goods will flexibly form in real time. Already, airlines began to work in this way, and telecommunications and energy will soon join them. The author claims that Kola will be sold in the same way. But there will be not people to agree on the price with each other, but the smart devices of the buyer and the seller, focusing on the prevailing prices.
Sixth. Only the best firms in their sectors will survive in the era of infinity to zero. Each large company has a shameful secret: the prices for some of its products are exorbitantly overstated. Until now, the company could hide this fact behind the back of quality products and strong brands. Unfortunately, for industrial monsters (and to great benefits for us consumers), these games will end in the world of exact information.
Seventh. Will die out centralized vertical markets. Rick Carlard formulates this briefly with the help of a German word familiar to us. Vertical integration - Kaput. In the seventies, the flagships of the computer industry, such as IBM or HP, had a vertical structure, producing the product from beginning to end. Now the industry has become delayed: microprocessors are produced by Intel; operating systems - Microsoft; Applied programs - thousands of different companies; assembly of computers - Compaq, Dell, IBM; Memory chips - Intel, IBM; Retail sale - Microage, Compusa; and system integrators - Andersen, EDS, IBM. IBM is present in many market segments and now, but in a different quality. The company is now a conglomerate of specialized companies directed outside much more than inside the corporation. Already today the same changes are held in the field of telecommunication and financial services. Tomorrow they will affect the markets of raw materials and electric power, government structures.
The eighth. A new breed of intermediaries who have mastered the technology of smart devices, broadband software and the World Wide Web will blossom. A model of the new intermediary is Priceline.com.
Ninth. The role of the buyer in a pair of the buyer-seller will increase sharply. Thanks to the Internet, for example, a thousand possible retail buyers of Toyota Camry will be able to unite and demand significant discounts on a batch of thousands of cars. Previously, these funds went to automobile salons. Rick Carlugard warns industrialists: do not miss the boom in creating customer communities thanks to computer technology.
Tenth. And finally, the changes will affect the foundations of the foundations of a modern economic way. The trademark and a established network of sales and maintenance will no longer save the company from revolutionary changes. An example is the lightning capture of a large part of the book market by Amazon.com.
So, no matter how relate to the changes taking place, a new problem arose before the world economic community: how to survive and succeed in the new world of endless streams of information that will cost almost nothing?
Radio "Freedom", the program "Seventh Continent". Dmitry Atlas: Once again about free software.
Dmitry Atlas:
The Linux operating system, which until recently had a walk solely among adherents of a computer subculture, has now come to the surface and forced those who traditionally refill computer fashion. Almost all computer publications are full of reports of the new version of Linux, supposedly capable of becoming a “Microsoft burial ground”. About Linux it was recently and in the Seventh Continent, however, this software product, which is rightfully the pride of the network community, deserves to continue the conversation. In today's program, we will try to briefly talk about the history of Linux, about its features, about the current state of this operating system, as well as the prospects of its further development. We will also dwell on some differences between Linux and other popular operating systems. To the topic "Linux in Russia" we hope to contact one of the following programs.
Linux is a relatively young operating system that was born in 1991. The core of the system was created by Linus Torvalds, now one of the most famous programmers in the world, and at that time an unknown student of the university in Helsinki. To engage in the development of his own operating system Thorvalds prompted the dissatisfaction of the low -power clone Unix at his disposal - being a student, Torvalds simply could not afford to acquire a more expensive system. Thorvalds recalls that starting the creation of Linux, he did not set his grandiose tasks: Linux was intended primarily for use as a curriculum developed for 386, which allows to better understand the principles of operational systems. Linux was Torvalds's diploma project, however, unlike other diploma projects, he brought his author, in addition to the degree of the master, worldwide glory. And the Internet played a decisive role in this.
The information about the news in the network of the news in the network of the Unix-like operating system did not go unnoticed by Thorvalds. The source code of the program posted on the university server was interested in a considerable number of programmers who worked on a similar problem, and soon the proposals of improving the operating system, called Linux, rained down on Torvalds as an abundance. The first “official” version of Linux, announced by Thorvalds in October 1991, was still very, very little: with its help it was only possible to launch the shell of the operating system and the compileor of the language of C. And yet Linux's popularity began to grow rapidly: it turned out to be an excellent landfill for those who, dealing with the programs, did not want to be content with the Black Box model, but sought to look inside basic software. And Linux was ideal for these purposes, because unlike the code of other operating systems, its code was completely open and could be modified. Moreover, Linux, which satisfied the standard of the Unix operating system, had serious advantages over the IBM-compatible computers on the MS-DOS operating system, which did not allow you to work in multitasking mode and not transferred to a machine with a processor different from Intel. Finally, Linux spread free of charge, while most versions of the same Unix, in their capabilities not so much exceeding Torvald's operating system, cost a lot of money. A year after the publication of the new system, when the number of Linux users exceeded a hundred, Torvalds realized that his program began to live his own life. And seven years later, the ranks of Linux enthusiasts were estimated at 7 million people. It was a truly impressive result.
The fact that Linux has managed to become a completely competitive operating system today is not a merit of one Torvalds. Its co -authors became tens of thousands of programmers, who were united by the World Wide Web. It should be noted that the Finnish programmer created only the core of the operating system, which in itself, without applications, is not of interest to ordinary users. Fortunately, the software core created by Thorvalds was able to combine the X Windows unique graphic environment developed at the Massachusetts Institute of Technological Institute, as well as with the Linux libraries and applied programs already developed as part of an alternative project to create a non-commercial full-scale UNIX-like operating system, which bore the name GNU.
It is amazing that the operating system tailored from heterogeneous pieces turned out to be by no means eclectic in regard to its ability to effectively interact with the most diverse equipment. We tried to give an explanation for this phenomenon in a conversation about the gaining scope of the movement of Open Source.
Currently, Linux is experiencing a peak of popularity: the growth of the supply of this operating system exceeds similar indicators for its competitors, including the Microsoft Windows NT; The creation of software products for underground Linux was announced by such respectable companies as IBM, Corel, Hewlett Packard, Oracle. First -class and at the same time very inexpensive database management systems, graphic packages, interpreters of the main programming languages are already at the disposal of those who have opted for Linux. And with the accession to the Linux camp, the software manufacturers, the penguin - the symbol of the Linus Torvalds operating system - will feel even more confident in the changeable virtual world.
The successes of Linux can no longer turn a blind eye to Microsoft, dominating the market for personal computers. True, how real is the threat of the dominance of Windows by the playing not according to the rules of Linux, open to everyone and everything, it is still difficult to say. Bill Gates in his recent speech in Houston said that in the competitive fight against software products of exceptional complexity, such as the same Windows NT, Linux cannot be withstood. The time of programs like Linux, according to the head of Microsoft, has passed. However, Gates forecasts may not be confirmed. Linux does not at all impress the "obsolete" operating system. There are many reasons for this. When developing the Fundamentals of Linux, it was better than in the case of other operating systems, the features of the intel architecture were taken into account, which made it possible to effectively use the resources provided by personal computers. At the same time, Linux turned out to be transferred to platforms based on the processors of Motorola, Alpha and a number of others. Further, Linux discovered high stability in the work, which made this operating system preferred in situations where the probability of a computer system is out of order due to the refusal of the operating system must be minimized. A convincing confirmation of the reliability and timidity of Linux may be the solution of researchers of the famous laboratory in Los Alamos to use it when modeling nuclear processes. Finally, due to the fact that Linux was created by the combined efforts of the entire Internet community, network components are especially developed in this operating system. Linux supports all standard network services. Like a network server, Linux exceeds in its characteristics such popular systems as Windows NT, Novell and UNIX. It is not surprising that the number of adherents of Linux among the Navigators of the World Wide Web continues to increase.
And another circumstance deserves mention. An open Linux development model makes this software product less dependent on the market conditions and user tastes than the software created by the traditional way. Therefore, the methods of competition that computer giants use to attract customers will not be able to cause Linux significant damage. Despite the fact that, according to a number of Linux indicators, he continues to concede the most developed commercial operating systems, he has already managed to gain a reputation as a completely serious alternative to them. Developing according to its own laws, Linux has now turned into a full -fledged corporate operating system that provides its users with very wide possibilities.
Radio "Freedom", the program "Seventh Continent". Sergei Markelov is represented by the site of the Sunday group.
Sergey Markelov:
The legendary Moscow group "Sunday" at the end of 97th acquired an official Web Sit [ http://www.voskresenie.ru ]. Its author is the sound engineer of the team Dmitry Bukharov. The site is a very good example of an information resource made to represent a single musical team in cyberspace.
"Sunday" can be compared with an unsinkable aircraft carrier. Appearing two decades ago at the Moscow Musical Horizon, this group became quite popular in the capital's and not only capital's circles "Youth and Student Youth." The pathos of disappointment in life, a sluggish beating with his forehead against a strong wall, came very much to the time and to the place. This line of "courageous sadness", the mood of Hemingueevsi's characters, characteristic of the lyric hero of "Sunday" and the like, in fact, "made" the group. Over time, the theme and the atmosphere of songs almost did not change, which can not be said about the composition of the team; The performing skill of its many participants increased markedly. Now, "Sunday" is, in my opinion, a monument to itself - a cute project that pleases fans without complaints about world domination.
The emergence of the Web Sit of the group, about which so many conflicting rumors have been going on for twenty years, can only be welcomed. Теперь любой желающий пользователь интернета в состоянии ознакомиться с историей "Воскресенья" (по крайней мере в том виде, как её себе представляют авторы ресурса). Спокойная клубная атмосфера и лёгкая навигация делают изучение сайта весьма приятным. Радует множество мелких деталей, вроде бы и ненужных, но создающих настроение: скажем, подробнейшее описание любимых микрофонов.
Но вернёмся к деталям немаловажным.
На одной из страниц выложены тексты песен, многие из которых снабжены аккордами. Вообще, к любителям группы отношение на сайте образцово-показательное. Интересная деталь: круг фанов "Воскресенья", как выясняется из присланных мэйлов, не ограничивается 30-40-летними: самому молодому поклоннику, точней поклоннице, след которой мне удалось обнаружить, - всего 15 и живёт она в Канаде. Ещё одно любопытное наблюдение: в разделе "Переписка" по просьбе одного из корреспондентов очень вскользь и нехотя упоминается имя Константина Никольского - в данный момент не имеющего к группе отношения, но человека весьма легендарного и сделавшего некогда очень много для проекта "Воскресенье". Впрочем, творческие и человеческие расхождения - тема смутная для постороннего наблюдателя. Забавный факт: упоминание о его - Константина Никольского - официальном сайте выглядит как фраза из какого-нибудь месткомовского документа: "ПО ПОВОДУ ВОПРОСОВ, СВЯЗАННЫХ С ТВОРЧЕСТВОМ КОНСТАНТИНА НИКОЛЬСКОГО". Сайт у Никольского, кстати, очень хороший, на него есть линк, но это - тема отдельного разговора.
На сайте "Воскресенья" есть отсылки к сольным проектам нынешних участников группы: "Лос дэ Моску", коллективу, играющий фламенко - с участием Алексея Романова; "Шанхай" Евгения Маргулиса, и "Лотос" Андрея Сапунова. Упоминание о "Лотосе" - это, собственно, не линк, поскольку, увы, никуда не ведёт, а просто упоминание. Будем надеяться, что пока.
Yes! 25 марта нынешнего года сайт обзавёлся фан-клубом и приглашает всех заинтересованных принять участие в его деятельности.