Programs - Round Table

Lev Roitman:

The Moscow Mayor Yuri Luzhkov has never stated unequivocally about his intention to run for president of Russia. This is his difference from Grigory Yavlinsky, Alexander Lebed, Gennady Zyuganov. However, surveys show that the popularity of the Moscow mayor is growing in the all -Russian presidential direction. The list of the most influential Russian politicians Yuri Luzhkov is the second after Evgeny Primakov. But here everything is clear - Evgeny Primakov Prime Minister all of Russia. How to explain the growth of popularity, which means the chosenness of the Moscow mayor, when it comes to presidency? Our conversation today. They participate, all by phone: Director of the Center for Liberal-Conservative Policy Arkady Murashov; journalist Ilya Milstein, Moscow weekly "New Time"; And Professor-historian Andrei Zubov, who, I hope, will try to comprehend the figure of Yuri Luzhkov in the Russian historical context.

The popularity of Yuri Luzhkov, the mayor of Moscow, is steadily growing on a all -Russian scale. How to explain this?

Arkady Murashov:

You know, Luzhkov has every chance, of course, to be chosen by the president in Russia. Firstly, he is one of the few candidates who sincerely want this, who feels his messianic purpose and is ready to sacrifice many in order to achieve the goal. Secondly, resources - of all Russian oligarchs, Luzhkov, perhaps, is the largest potential, the largest resources are substituted under the gun and it will be very difficult for him to resist here. Finally, the third, the most important thing - Luzhkov unusually successfully falls on the Russian mentality, mood. This summer we did a sociological survey that, frankly, surprised me and confirms this. The point is what, among the questions that were asked, was one like this: in which country would you like to live? And so, with regard to goal -setting, it is completely clear here - 2/3 people replied that they would like to live in a normal Western country, like a European or United States of America. 30% of citizens said that they would like to live in the former Soviet Union. Nobody would like to live in modern Russia. But to the question: what do you think the government should do in order to live as in a normal Western country, most citizens answered that it should nationalize enterprises, raise taxes, increase social payments, and so on, and so on. That is, exactly the opposite of what should have been done. And in this sense, Luzhkov unusually successfully falls on this mentality. On the one hand, who will argue that Moscow is really the most advanced, the western city with beautiful windows and an abundance of goods. On the other hand, the Moscow government is one of the most socialist, so to speak, by the degree of its influence, by the degree of its significance of pressure on the Moscow economy. And the myth that is now gradually formed, or has already been formed in Russia, is that we would have such a president or mayor, or the governor as Luzhkov, we would live like in Moscow. The second or third reason is very important that Luzhkov has now become a leader for regional elites, for his fellow governors. Now, if you look at what almost each of the governors in Russia is doing - it seems to be such a mini -Luzhkov, it does about the same as Luzhkov, based on the principle: the winner is not judged. It creates commercial structures, the regional bank, and crushes the entire economy of the region or region for itself. I rightly believe that thereby he will create the basis for victory in all subsequent elections. And if in the dispute for a piece of federal pie, each of the governors is a real rival to Luzhkov, then in the struggle for power entirely in the country - their leaders, their leader, their leader. And insofar as in Russia the elections are far from free, the influence of the administration on the results of the elections, the vote counting is very significant, then, of course, Luzhkov’s chances should be evaluated as the best. Honestly, I think that Luzhkov in the future presidential elections will win in the first round.

Lev Roitman:

Thank you, Arkady Nikolaevich. If, of course, he ultimately categorically and unequivocally announces that he intends to go to this presidential path, but at the same time, when you, Arkady Nikolaevich, say that he became an object of imitation for regional leaders, then not in all they are able to follow the Russian leader, they are not able to collect, imagine in Tula and for Tula and for Tula nalogs. From all -Russian financial commercial institutions, as well as monopolies that have their own headquarters in Moscow, where they pay taxes - this is probably the financial feature of Moscow, and, perhaps, one of the reasons for its successes on the Russian background.

Ilya Milstein:

I would just disagree in one thing, would argue with Arkady Nikolayevich, that Luzhkov so wants to become the president of Russia. I have the feeling that no one in Russia now wants to become president, except for the most completely demagogues, but with the exception of, of course, Grigory Yavlinsky, who is not any demagogue. I think that Yuri Mikhailovich is wonderful and well in Moscow, he perfectly got a job in the Moscow elite, adjusted his relationship with the Kremlin, and remained independent all these years. He, in general, is wonderful, and he is the same person in his place, of which there are so few in Russia with all the shortcomings and even vices of the Moscow power pyramid. I think that Luzhkov said quite frankly, and it makes sense to listen to these words that he will not be put up in the elections if he sees that people who are worthy, from his point of view, go to power. He promised to aggressively support these people. And if unworthy comes, he said, then I will exhibit. Unworthy, I think, this is a swan, to some extent Zyuganov for Luzhkov, that is, people who threaten not Russia, but really his Moscow government. Behind Lebed, Berezovsky stands, behind Zyuganov, various comrades who will recall Yuri Mikhailovich and the 93rd year and some other events in Russian history. This Luzhkov is afraid. He is afraid to lose Moscow, and in order not to lose Moscow, he may have to become the President of Russia. Another I want to say: in general, Luzhkov arose on that terrible political nonsense that we are observing in Russia today. Yuri Mikhailovich, with all his virtues, is naturally not a national leader, not even the national leader, which was, for example, Yeltsin of the 91st year, which is so difficult to believe today. Luzhkov of those small, in general, politicians who today stretched out to all giant growth, because time somehow puts forward them, but there are no real national figures.

Lev Roitman:

Thank you, Ilya Milstein. You mentioned Yeltsin, so, by the way, Yeltsin in the last list of a hundred most influential Russian politicians follow Luzhkov. But, I must say that this list was compiled before Boris Yeltsin appeared for three hours from a summer residence in the Kremlin and acted on the principle - I will disperse everyone, I will show everyone who is the master here.

Andrey Zubov:

In principle, I really really agree with Arkady and Ilya. Indeed, Yuri Mikhailovich is a man whom many in Russia are waiting for and want to have a president. It seems to me that the old complex of Russian consciousness affects here - this is the attention and love of a person who is able to equip, organize life. As if people now, and indeed often in Russia, suffer from some inability, the inability to organize themselves. We remember how our recent hero of Jubicarus Solzhenitsyn was sad that despite all his attempts, it did not develop in Russia and it was not visible that some effective self-government would have developed in the near future. And this is a sign of such folk asthenia. But if you yourself do not know how to organize yourself, then you need to look for someone who could organize you. In this sense, Luzhkov, in my opinion, is an attractive figure, attractive because, on the one hand, he showed himself as a master, and at the expense of his management, however, people say this: of course, he does not forget himself, but even if he gives the city. The trouble is that others say: they don’t forget themselves, but they give little Russia. This is perhaps one aspect. The second aspect is that he is really seen in his affairs, and in affairs not only and not so much political, where he from time to time acts with political statements that cause very great doubts and embarrassment, as they see him, first of all, in his practical administrative and economic activity, where something is really done. And I think that in this regard, Luzhkov is embedded in that category of Russian types of political state images, types of builders-builders, figures. However, such a person always causes fierce envy to himself, and at the same time causes a terrible fear. Because in a society with such an asthenic syndrome, an active person who wants to fundamentally and actively, he is dangerous, is dangerous for those who want to live well, but they can do little. And in this sense, I would allow you to disagree with Arkady that for other governors he is a leader. The fact is that it can hardly be assumed that in the eyes of most governors of Luzhkov a certain leader, rather the opposite. And in this sense, we see the same swan by the opponent, because Luzhkov, if he now equipped Moscow and actually does not allow anyone to intervene in his domain, and put a firm hand on the largest city in Russia, then for any more or less understanding person (I know that people in the administration understand this, both local and Moscow), that when Yuri Mikhailovich becomes president of Russia, then this The spineless freemen of sovereignty and semi -sanititis that exist now, and which Luzhkov indulges, concludes horizontal agreements with one or other subjects of the Federation - all this will end. Here is the same master, solid, decisive and intelligent as a sovereign, he will be for the whole of Russia. Therefore, for local authorities who prefer to distance themselves from Moscow, Luzhkov-President is rather not their own man in the highest post, however a rather large and serious danger.

Lev Roitman:

Thank you, Andrey Borisovich. Well, Goethe once said that architecture is music in stone. Well, probably, what I did with Moscow, rebuilding it, restoring, decorating it, what you can see, and you said, Andrei Borisovich, that Luzhkov is a figure, so that everyone can see in Moscow is quite likely, all -Russian taxes that froze in a stone.

Arkady Murashov:

The fact is that you correctly pointed out the reason for the main Moscow well -being. This reason is that the tax burden lies unevenly, the distribution of taxes: Moscow get the money that is earned throughout Russia. After all, Luzhkov is the only mayor or governor in the country who is not tormented by the problem where to get the money, but is tormented by the problem, as it were, to spend it. If other governors have tension with money - this is a harsh reality, depending on the federal budget, then for Luzhkov to get into another project to buy or build something - this is normal everyday life. As for the prospects for the development of Moscow in such an economic situation, then, of course, it could be much higher. That is, if not for the Moscow government, then, I think, the situation in Moscow was much better. This is with all the fact that a long -term radical problem, for example, replacement of worn municipal services networks in Moscow is solved badly, and the collapsing walls or roads - this has already become such a daily reality. But, I think that Luzhkov is still a leader for governors, they internally feel in him, because they do not care in Russia, and despite the fact that Luzhkov being a governor again, he is now a competitor and can even be an enemy that delays their resources to himself, then as the father of the whole nation he is completely satisfied, he is spiritually, ideologically close. And, I think that Luzhkov has excellent chances to collect all the “left” voices and many “right” will vote for him in the old memory, thinking that he is a reformer, a market and so on. Well, we, in fact, remains 8 years old, the Luzhkovsky presidency, to find our comfort in the proverb "from Suma, but do not say from the prison."

Lev Roitman:

Thank you, Arkady Nikolaevich. I recall the time when in the former Soviet Union it was relieved to close closed distributors, believing that the deficit, which accumulated in these distributors for the elect, is enough for everyone. Not enough. Is it not the same thing today with the hopes on the business executive, at the figure of Yuri Luzhkov, when everyone hopes that he did in Moscow using all-Russian taxes, Yuri Luzhkov may occur in Russia with all over Russia, but there will no longer be more taxes, probably, they simply become less for Moscow.

Ilya Milstein:

I do not think that the confused, embittered, but most confused Russian population relies on Luzhkov that someone, having lived all these years in Russia, believes that from some person, whether Luzhkov, Yeltsin, Yavlinsky, Gaidar or someone else, seriously may change something. All or most fellow citizens, I think, are already used to the fact that this crisis, this all -Russian default, it is a very long time. And Luzhkov, if they choose, then as smaller of the evils. In fact, he is better than Zhirinovsky, he is better than Zyuganov, there is nothing even to argue. As for the governors, who, I also believe him will support him, I would agree with Arkady Nikolayevich - they are not afraid of him, he will not become a master for all of Russia, the situation is not the situation in the country, he simply will not be able to enter the troops everywhere where the governors grabbed the sovereignty. And in this sense, he suits them and arrange them. I think that there are some silent agreements there, that he will try to change for the better, but to take power from them, to demand in a poor country to tease pieces for Moscow from their population, for the center, he will not become. And in general, in the situation that develops in Russia today, Yuri Mikhailovich has a lot that can attract this confused and confused our population. He attracts patriots for xenophobia, for Crimea, for left-centrism, although no one knows what this means on Russian soil. Democrats remember that he was with them in all truly crisis times, in all acute conflicts he was with them. And in this sense, he, as far from the worst applicant, can arrange many. I would still say that today our conversation is so formed that we choose Yuri Mikhailovich in the president, no matter how doubt I have not heard that he will pass, but I would like to recall that there is still a lot of time if Yeltsin is more or less healthy until 2000, and, of course, the situation can change in any direction.

Andrey Zubov:

Of course, for a year and a half, much can change, Ilya, and I believe that we, first of all, should look at another political figure - at the current prime minister, and his position is not entirely clear here. But in conclusion, I can only say one thing: in Russia, a lot depends on the personality, and personalism in Russian politics has always been very great, it is traditional. And, I think that Luzhkov’s policy is now precisely the policy of improving personal charisma, personal respect. In addition, he can give little Russia, even more so, but he constantly unwinds his personality as a person. This personalism in Russian politics is won by the one who is now most vividly and most characteristic, and the person who is most organizing Russia. And perhaps Luzhkov and the mysterious Primakov, who is always not clear what, but receives the sympathy of people, these are two, perhaps, personalities who have the greatest prospects in the nearest Russian policy.

Lev Roitman:

Thank you, Andrey Borisovich. And I note that Evgeny Primakov never said that he was going to claim this position, although, again, who knows?