Economy

- Leningrad Ford and Nizhny Novgorod Fiat.
- Commission on the protection of investors' rights.
- Ukrainian clay and the Russian aluminum market.
- Creates a commodity Internet exchange.
- A review of the publications of the next issue of the British weekly "Economist".

Sergey Seninsky:

Last week, two international automobile projects in Russia were reminded of themselves at once.

On Monday, the Government of the Leningrad Region signed an agreement with the leadership of the joint venture "Ford-Vsevozhsk" on the lease of the land plot, on which car equipment should be located. Our correspondent in St. Petersburg Viktor Rezunkov says:

Victor Rezunkov:

27 hectares allocated under the contract for the construction of a car assembly plant are only a small part of the entire land plot on which the Russian Diesel plant is located in Vsevolozhsk. Today, on the working site of the future automobile plant, there are three production buildings with a total area of about 30 thousand square meters. Repair and construction work has already begun here. As expected, the first equipment for the new plant will be delivered before the beginning of September this year.

Ford-Vsevozhosk-a joint venture formed by the American Corporation of Ford Motor and the Russian Joint-Stock Company "Bankear House" St. Petersburg. "The first finished car, according to plans, should leave the conveyor in Vsevolozhsk on July 1, 2001. At least this period is provided for by an agreement that was signed by the leadership of a joint venture and the Government of the Leningrad Region on August 18 of the last past years, during the first year after the start of the plant, the sets of cars imported from the border for their subsequent assembly in Vsevolozhsk will be exempted from the payment of customs duties, which should affect the price of cars.

Initially, the plant will produce 5-door hatchbacks and 4-door sedans-Ford Focus models. According to preliminary calculations, the price of such a car in Russia will be from 13 to 15 thousand dollars. By 2005, the joint venture "Ford Vsevozsk" should reach the design capacity - 25 thousand cars per year. However, according to its official representatives, this can happen earlier. It all depends on the future demand.

For the Leningrad Region - a car assembly plant in Vsevolozhsk - one of the largest investment projects. The volume of investments only at the first stage of its implementation should amount to almost $ 150 million. And the volume of monthly investments is 5 million dollars.

Directly at the assembly plant in the first 3-4 years of its work, it is planned to create 700 jobs. And taking into account the components employed in related industries and in the sales network - up to 8 thousand.

Sergey Seninsky:

Victor Rezunkov, our correspondent in St. Petersburg.

On Tuesday in Nizhny Novgorod - as part of the project, an investment agreement was signed at the Gorky Automobile Plant of Fiat's cars. Our correspondent in Nizhny Novgorod Oleg Rodin says:

Oleg Rodin:

On March 21 in Nizhny Novgorod, an investment agreement was signed between the Russian Ministry of Economy and the joint venture of Nizhny Novgorod Motors. Designed for 7 years, it provides in the future customs benefits to a joint venture when importing car components for subsequent assembly from abroad.

As the general director of GAZ Nikolay Pugin told reporters, Italian cars will begin to be assembled in Nizhny Novgorod two years later. The first collected Fiat should leave the conveyor factory in mid -2002.

In general, the project to create a joint venture for the production of Italian cars in Nizhny Novgorod has existed since 1997. It was created by three participants: the Fiat Corporation and the Gorky Automobile Plant - with a share of 40% each, as well as the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development - 20%. Since then, the starts of production have been postponed repeatedly. At first it was assumed that the first cars would be assembled here in the fall of 1998. But after the financial crisis, the project was generally on the verge of closing. At the end of 1998, GAZ General Director announced new terms: the first cars - in the spring of 1999, and mass production by the end of the same year. Now he talks about mid 2002 ...

The plans have changed about the model range of future cars. The Marea model is now excluded from it, how too expensive for the mass Russian buyer. We are already talking about cheaper: Paleo and Siena. Paleo refers to the new middle -class car family, which Fiat has recently developed as universal models for developing markets in the world at the turn of the 21st century. The family of these cars includes 5-door hatchbacks, and 4-door sedans, and even minibuses. They are already produced by Fiat plants in Brazil, Argentina and Poland. As for Siena, this is the latest Fiat development. These cars are not yet mass -time at any Fiat Plant.

The total cost of a joint project - both then and now - is estimated by its participants at $ 850 million. The design capacity of the future plant remains unchanged - 150 thousand cars per year. However, the question is, when the implementation of the project finally comes beyond the compilation of a new business plan and the coordination of documents, is still open ...

Sergey Seninsky:

Oleg Rodin, our correspondent in Nizhny Novgorod.

The head of the deputy commission on the protection of the rights of investors - Irina Khakamada - performed last week last week last week last week in St. Petersburg.

Irina Khakamada:

The main task of the commission is to carry out a breakthrough in legislative work in the next 4 years in the field of investment stimulating and creating a favorable climate - both for domestic investments and foreign ones.

Each time, the main negotiations are held between large investors, international organizations, and the executive branch, and the government. No one pays attention to the legislation, although by the rating of claims from investors to the economy the legislation is almost in second place. In the first place - political stability, in the second - the problems of legislation.

Sergey Seninsky:

Literally on the eve of the creation of the Commission on the Protection of the Rights of Investors, the State Duma adopted - so far in the first reading - bills on amendments to two current laws - "On foreign currency regulation and foreign exchange control" and "On state regulation of foreign trade".

Irina Khakamada:

For me, as for a deputy economist, it was a "black" day. We have "passed" two laws in the first reading. The first is the amendment to the law "On foreign currency regulation". And the second is an amendment to the law "On foreign trade" - the mandatory registration of all foreign trade affairs. A classic example, when we say one thing, but another is done. And by a majority vote, such laws pass.

According to the first law, any commercial, the bank has the right to suspend any financial operation for three days if he suspects that the operation is related to a “dubious” deal. At the same time, everyone understands that the concept of "dubious" transaction does not exist in the Civil Code. And thus, the executive branch gets the opportunity to interpret and "include" either green or red light.

Next. Mandatory registration of foreign trade transactions may be introduced. Until now, all transactions have been recorded in a notification order. If you have a “foreign trade activity” in your charter, then you notify the relevant authorities that you are performing an imported or export operation, and this is all ending. Now the executive authorities, represented by the Ministry of Foreign Trade and its Department, may receive the right to allow you this operation or not allow. That is, we return to Soviet times, "permission" or "non -observations", "special exporters" and "specialists" or anything ...

While all investors simply shout that even the tax policy is not always a barrier ... The most important thing is that it simply does not change, so that you can adapt to it. But any erection of administrative barriers increases transaction costs, closes the entrance to the market and, thus, does not create a competitive environment.

We have been talking about investments for 10 years, and still, the specific gravity of direct investments is constantly reduced.

Sergey Seninsky:

Irina Khakamada, Head of the recently created deputy commission to protect the rights of investors.

A review of some publications of the next issue of the British weekly "Economist". He went out on Friday, March 24. Maria Klein will introduce you to the review:

Maria Klein:

75 million barrels of oil are produced daily in the world, and 77 million are consumed. The preservation of this minimum imbalance drove oil prices during the year, writes Economist. This happened only in the days of wars or revolutions.

Today, the prices dictate OPEC, and the key role in it is for Saudi Arabia, which accounts for half of the free oil production capacities of the entire organization - just 2-3 million barrels per day. However, Riyadh is between two fires. On the one hand - the pressure of Libya, Algeria and Iran who do not want to go to increase the volume of oil production. On the other hand, there are countries of the West, and, above all, the United States. Of course, in Saudi Arabia there are a lot of oil, but the West has their own arguments, which are not in Riyadh cannot ignore: military and economic power. Oil manufacturers are interested in the favorable development of economies of leading oil consumers in the world, concludes the "economist".

Everything goes to the fact that the number of countries included in the zone of a single European currency will increase soon, the economist writes.

The first, most likely, will be Greece, which only macroeconomic indicators did not allow to enter into a foreign exchange union along with other 11 participants last year. Today - they almost meet the necessary criteria.

The Danish government determined the date of the referendum on joining the currency union - September 28. Although this is far from indisputable for now, the Danes can say yes.

Sweden, although slower than Denmark, also moves towards the euro. Recently, a specially convened Congress voted for the slogan "Yes, but - later!". Most likely, a referendum will also be held in Sweden, but - after the next parliamentary elections of the 2002th year.

The movement towards the expansion of the Eurozone again proves the obvious, leaving so far outside its borders alone, the UK, concludes the "economist".

A special commission created by the United States Congress, as its meeting showed last week, may not gain 2/3 of the votes necessary to decide to extend the current moratorium on new taxes regarding e -commerce, writes Economist. By the decision of the Supreme Court of the United States, the authorities of a state cannot demand from sellers who are beyond its borders to collect the tax from sales of those goods that are bought in this state. Touring from sales tax is one of the main sources of budget revenues of the US states. While these budgets have not already experienced lack of funds, the problem of taxation of e -commerce is not so relevant. However, the longer these tax benefits will remain, the more difficult it will be to reduce them in the future, the "economist" concludes.

Sergey Seninsky:

Thank you, Maria Klein introduced you to the review of some publications of the next issue of the British weekly "Economist", which was released on Friday, March 24.

In Kyiv last week, preliminary results of the competition for the sale of 30% of the shares of the Nikolaev clay factory were announced. 36% of its shares are already belonging to the Russian company Siberian Aluminum. Our correspondent in Kyiv Sergey Kiselev says:

Sergey Kiselev:

On March 20, the State Property Fund of Ukraine announced preliminary results of the competition. The winner was named the Ukrainian Aluminum Limited Liability Company registered in Kyiv. For 30% of the shares of the Nikolaev clay plant, it offered almost $ 100 million at a start price of 21 million. The company "Siberian aluminum" itself offered the amount, exactly twice as smaller.

However, the results of the competition in Kyiv are emphasized "preliminary", since, for example, new proposals of the contestants can still affect the final decision of the state property of Ukraine, which should be announced in the future week. If, let's say, one of them will offer even more ...

However, the probability of this is evaluated by experts in Kyiv, rather, theoretically. As local newspapers approve, the Russian company Siberian Aluminum is directly related to the creation of Ukrainian Aluminum. And in the Russian press, the relations of these companies are called "friendly."

Officially, among the founders of the Limited Liability Company, Ukrainian Aluminum is the "Ukrsibbank". It is also known that this aluminum company was registered in one of the areas of Kyiv in March last year.

The Nikolaev clay plant itself was built from 1976 to 1992 according to French technology. The capacities are designed for production of about 1 million tons of clay per year. The current volume of production is approximately 90 thousand tons per month. Almost all of clay -ground produced at the plant is exported: it is purchased at market prices by the largest aluminum plants in Russia - Krasnoyarsk, Brotherly and Sayan, as well as the aluminum plant in Tajikistan. In addition, in Ukraine, the Nikolaev clay plant provides an aluminum plant in Zaporozhye with raw materials.

Sergey Seninsky:

Sergey Kiselev, our correspondent in Kyiv.

What is the specific gravity of the Nikolaev clay plant in the total supply of clay for the aluminum industry of Russia? The question is to Moscow. Svetlana Smirnova, employee of the analytical department of the Renaissance Capital investment company:

Svetlana Smirnova:

In general, Russian industry at today's level consumes about 5 million tons of clay per year. And the share of the Nikolaev clay plant is about 15 - 20%.

Sergey Seninsky:

World and Ukrainian-Russian prices for alumina. How significant is the difference?

Svetlana Smirnova:

The world price for clay is now approximately $ 380 per ton. This is the data for January 2000. And it has grown significantly compared to January last year - about 153%. Unfortunately, we have no data at what price the clay -earth is sold to Russian plants to Russian plants. But we know that this price is very close to the world with an insignificant discount - about 20%.

Sergey Seninsky:

Last week at the Novokuznetsk aluminum plant - by the decision of the Kemerovo Arbitration Court - external administration was introduced. This is the fifth aluminum factory of Russia, the control package of shares of which was recently acquired by structures, close shareholders of Sibneft company - along with packages of shares of the Krasnoyarsk and fraternal aluminum plants. What does this change in the structure of the Russian aluminum industry?

Svetlana Smirnova:

Now the external management has been introduced at the Novokuznetsk aluminum plant. This was done in the claim of Kuzbassenergo. And according to unconfirmed information, the external manager of the plant was a person close to the Siberian aluminum group.

Thus, the share of the Siberian aluminum group in the Russian aluminum industry can double: from 11% to about 22%. And the share of the fraternal aluminum factory and the Krasnoyarsk aluminum plant combined, will be about 60%.

Sergey Seninsky:

An employee of the analytical department of the Renaissance Capal investment company Svetlana Smirnova answered our questions in Moscow.

Last Monday, a group of largest international investment banks and energy corporations, including Morgan Stanley Dean Witter, Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank, as well as Royal Dutch/Shell oil companies, BP Amoco and Totalfina - signed an agreement on the creation of an international Internet worldbide for the trade in metals and energy resources.

Is it about the transfer of goods on the Internet in the future of the entire exchange trading on the Internet? And will the virtual exchange affect the prices of goods? John Shapiro, Head of the Department of International Investment Bank Energy Rights "Morgan Stanley Dean Witter":

John Shapiro:

I do not think that the creation of Internet foreigners will lead to the disappearance of other ways to conclude exchange transactions on goods - both on the commodity exchanges themselves, and by phone between the buyer and seller ...

I also do not think that the emergence of a new product exchange will lead to a decrease in prices for goods - the same metals or oil ... Of course, the costs of concluding transactions themselves will be reduced, but the innovation will not affect the prices of goods.

Of course, the Internet will help, say, with convenience and much cheaper to buy a plane ticket, which at the last moment can be bought at a big discount. But the same is impossible to imagine in world commodity markets. After all, if the batch of metal was not bought today, then it will be bought tomorrow, the day after tomorrow and he will not lose in price. This applies to oil and other products that are massively sold on commodity exchanges. If the proposal is growing, but demand is not, then prices, of course, go down. But if the demand is growing, and supplies are preserved at the same level, then prices are on the contrary, rising. But the method of selling goods - on the exchange or via the Internet - does not affect prices.

Sergey Seninsky:

Why is this idea implemented right now? Is this not caused by a sharp increase in world oil prices?

John Shapiro:

Нет, появление Интернет-биржи не имеет ничего общего с нынешними ценами на нефть, и она будет работать независимо от колебания этих цен. Речь просто идет о технологии, которая раньше была нам недоступна.

За последние пять-десять лет компьютеры и компьютерные сети значительно усовершенствовались. Это и позволило создать новый вид товарной биржи. Вспомните, когда не было телефона, то партнеры писали друг другу деловые письма. Потом начали пользоваться телексом, затем появился факс... Так что теперь просто используются новые технологии.

Sergey Seninsky:

Джеффри Спрехер, генеральный директор учреждаемой товарной биржи, которая получила название Intercontinental Exchange и штаб-квартира которой будет находиться в Атланте.

Джеффри Спрехер:

Причина, почему мы выносим товарную биржу на экран компьютера, заключается в том, что вся сделка станет как бы прозрачной, и люди смогут найти покупателя и продавца, не прибегая к телефону.

Вы будете в любое время дня и ночи знать, что определенное количество, скажем, нефти продано в такое-то время по такой-то цене. Сегодня вам требуется гораздо больше времени и усилий, чтобы это выяснить.

Интернет значительно сокращает и объем бумажной работы, и число связанных с этим возможных ошибок. Можно предположить также, что цены на товары, предлагаемые покупателем и продавцом, будут не так расходиться, как это нередко бывает сегодня, на обычных товарных биржах. Ведь если на экране компьютера появляются сразу все существующие на данный момент цены на этот товар на рынках разных не только стран, но даже континентов, то теоретически разрыв между ними должен сокращаться. Покупатели и продавцы смогут быстрее договориться о взаимоприемлемой цене.