What is Lukashenko afraid of?

Dmitry Volchek talks about the election situation in Belarus with the observer of the Belarusian Radio Service Freedom Marat Dimov.

Dmitry Volchek:

Marat, did pre -election polls of public opinion in Belarus, and what are their results?

Marat Dymov:

Polls are carried out constantly, and it is worth saying that the overall picture is quite monotonous. She is as follows: the rating of the head of state Alexander Lukashenko ranges somewhere in the range from 35 to 45 percent. The rating of his opponents, in general, is also quite stable and ranges from 3 to 5 percent. It would seem, at first glance, such stable data indicate that no surprises should be expected from the election campaign. However, this is not entirely true. A fairly large number of people - about 40 percent, almost half, until they decided, they do not know who they will vote for. About the same number of people say that they do not want Lukashenko to be president for the second time. In other words, the rating that the head of state has is very high, but this is almost the ceiling of its capabilities. In addition, a few weeks ago, at the height of the election campaign, a rather important event occurred: democratic candidates united and nominated one single candidate from their ranks. He became the leader of the Federation of Trade Unions Vladimir Goncharik. Here, as I understand it, the opposition counts on the effect of a single candidate - what happened in Yugoslavia last fall. This is a really quite powerful psychological tool, when it becomes clear to voters that elections are not a beauty contest, not a choice between those who speak well or look good, but this is a choice between two ways of the country's development. In general, you can probably draw a kind of analogy between the situation that is currently in Belarus in the elections, and the situation with the presidential elections in Russia in 1996, when many voters reasoned like this: “Yes, Yeltsin is such a thing, but if you do not vote for Yeltsin, to vote for Zyuganov,” and even leaning, they still voted for Yeltsin. I would also like to say that as a result of the collection of signatures it turned out that only 4 candidates can claim to continue the electoral struggle. Especially if the candidate from the Democrats Semyon home will withdraw his candidacy against Goncharik, then there will be only three candidates. And the first tour in a certain sense will be the second, decisive.

Dmitry Volchek:

Did the latest revelations somehow influenced the ratings when the opposition claimed that Alexander Lukashenko directly authorized the creation of the so-called “death squadrons”, which physically eliminated his political opponents?

Marat Dymov:

Unfortunately, I do not have surveys that were carried out after these revelations, but it is worth saying that even before these revelations about 40 percent of voters said that if they were really convinced of the fact that the authorities are attitude to this, this will affect their choice. And even every fifth of those who said that “I am ready to vote for Lukashenko,” nevertheless, he emphasized that if he is still convinced that the head of state is attitude to this, he can reconsider his choice. I emphasize once again: this is the data before the speeches of the investigators of the prosecutor's office of Sluchech and Petrushkevich, to the documents that were published by Vladimir Goncharik, so I think that, of course, after that this factor became even more significant.

Dmitry Volchek:

And yet, despite the revelations, the position of Alexander Lukashenko seems quite durable, and his rating is high, and the gap between the president and his opponents is colossal, you will agree. Nevertheless, it seems that the president of Belarus is panicked - then his last statements give out some panic, does he have serious reason to panic?

Marat Dymov:

This is influenced by several factors. This one is, so to speak, that a person is a style. The exposure of conspiracies, the search for enemies, threats - in general, this was the usual practice of the head of the Belarusian state and in very calm times. That is, he apparently understands state ministry. But, nevertheless, apparently, there are factors that relate to a specific political situation. This is really that an ongoing wave of revelations associated with the involvement of the authorities in the disappearance of people, which we have already talked about. This, well, I would say, is still slurred by the position of Moscow, or -the anticipation of the position of Moscow. When - yes, on the one hand, the head of the Russian state comes to Vitebsk, shakes Lukashenko's hand. And on the other hand, the Russian authorities, the Russian Foreign Ministry remain completely silent when the accusations against Lukashenko of involvement in the disappearance of people sound not only from Belarus, but also from Washington. Usually, the Russian Foreign Ministry, as it were, simply instinctively reacts to such statements. But in this case there is no such instinct. Then, also a fairly alarming bell for the Belarusian government - this is that perhaps for the first time in 7 years the head of the Central Election Commission of Russia Veshnyakov says that a joint observation of the Belarusian elections of Russia as part of OSCE observers. There is an object for thought for Belarusian power.

In addition, again I would like to turn to the data of sociological surveys, but not nationwide, but the so -called "polls of the elite." Now, if, as I have already said, among, so to speak, the people, the population, the Lukashenko rating is very high, then among managers it is unusually low. About 80 percent of managers against ... in the Belarusian situation, when it would be risky to tell the truth ... And, in general, the administrative resource, in all its manifestations, are people. People can comply with some orders, but may not comply with orders. And I think that this moment is - it is perhaps the most disturbing the head of the Belarusian state. Therefore, he rather nervously combined intimidation in his last speech when he said “I was recommended to arrest the Prime Minister, the head of my administration” - with flirting with the nomenclature when he says: “No, I will never do this, I believe these people, I believe all of you.” But the opposition - he said this a little earlier - if the opposition comes to power, you will all be bad, they will arrange a pogrom, and so on. The fact that this factor is very significant indicates that almost the main part of the leaders of the Belarusian opposition are yesterday's employees of the Belarusian president.

Dmitry Volchek:

In addition, Alexander Lukashenko said that events will develop according to the Yugoslav version, that there is some kind of fantastic worldwide conspiracy against him - what is it, just intimidating the townsfolk?

Marat Dymov:

Partly, this is intimidation of the townsfolk, partly again, the same style that I spoke about. Well, a person sees the world like that. In addition - this also cannot be excluded, this is a demonstration that the head of the Belarusian state himself can go very, very far to retain his power. In the end, the conspiracy can be organized, so that then suppress, crush it with brilliance, and when the enemies make up the conspiracies, it is no longer before the elections, as they say, if the enemy does not surrender - it is destroyed.