Parties will have to clean

The forecast for political parties unfavorable in the new, 2006, many political parties will cease to exist, not overcoming the bar of 50 thousand members. Others will not survive a split in their ranks or a change of leader and will also come from the stage. The leaders of some parties themselves will be forced to humble pride and share power with the successors. By the end of the year, no more than 10 parties out of the current four dozen will survive. The forecast relative to the remaining is also not optimistic. In the year of the red -haired dog, party members will have to bite among themselves and wag the tail before the executive government.

In the coming year, an organ of an organ, a person-party, a permanent leader of the LDPR over the past 15 years, a deputy of the four Duma convocations, Doctor of Philosophy Vladimir Zhirinovsky, apparently, will give the reins of government to his son, State Duma deputy Igor Lebedev. This will happen at the XVIII Congress of the LDPR at the Kremlin Palace of Congresses on April 25 - on the birthday of the leader. “I would have been transferring power to Igor for a long time,” Zhirinovsky recently admitted to Gazeta. “But so far the son is not ready.” However, in April, Vladimir Volfovich will turn 60 years old, and his son will not just refuse his father in the anniversary year.

The Secretary Generals do not voluntarily leave

A change of leadership is also possible in the Communist Party. Oddly enough, the fact that the Communist Party successfully spoke in the elections to the Moscow City Duma is said in favor of this version. If we take into account that behind the Communist Party there was a defeat in the Duma and presidential elections, the exhausting struggle for power inside the party and the demarcation with the participants in the “steamboat congress”, now for Gennady Zyuganov the most suitable time to go aside. At the peak of fame. With the preservation of the post of honorary chairman of the party. The first step towards the transfer of power may be the separation of the posts of the leader of the party and leader of the Duma faction of the Communist Party. Both of these posts are now combined by Zyuganov. Not in favor of such a forecast is a subjective factor. “Zyuganov is the Secretary General of any Soviet Secretary General,” Vyacheslav Nikonov, president of the Politics Foundation, told the newspaper. “But the Secretary Generals do not voluntarily leave, believing that a leading post is a lifelong privilege.”

From the test tube "United Russia"

The coming year can become difficult for United Russia. In the past year, the EP curators in the Kremlin discussed the idea of dividing the party into two parts: relatively speaking, levocentric and legal -centric. True, the case was limited only to the designation of two ideological platforms (wings, paws) inside the party. Before the November Congress of "EP" "United Russia" again spoke about the platforms. However, the leader of the "EP" Boris Gryzlov turned the intra -party discussion and hinted from the rostrum of the congress that the initiators of "attaching to the Platform party" could stay on it, and "the train will leave." The preceding experience in the construction of the Party of power also does not speak in favor of growing two parties from one test tube. “Two“ Party of Power ” -“ NDR ”and the block of Ivan Rybkin was created for the 1996 parliamentary elections,” recalls the deputy general director of the Center for Political Technology Alexei Makarkin. - And the regional bureaucracy, which ensures the administrative resource in the elections, was confused. Either they call from one reception of the Kremlin and ask to support NDR, then from another - they demand to ensure Rybkin’s victory. ” As a result, the administrative resource was sprayed and both parties showed a modest result.

Judo Baburina with Rogozin

Nevertheless, the idea of creating two parties from one fully corresponds to the course of the president’s administration to unify the political field with the prospect of creating a two -party system in the country and the displacement of all other players from the parliament. Especially those who were completely controlled at the beginning, was created, for example, as a party-spore for the Communist Party, and then fought off his hands and moved to the opposition. The Podina party in the New Year will “wet” with double energy, and it can be predicted that this party will de facto cease to exist. No matter how hard this forecast seemed, the premises to it are more than enough. Firstly, all legislative initiatives of the Rodina faction in the State Duma are blocked. Secondly, the "Rodants" are excommunicated from the television. Thirdly, in the new year, the lawsuit between Dmitry Rogozin and two other participants in the electoral bloc created for the 2003 elections will begin: the State Duma Vice-Spiker party Sergey Baburin and the SPRO Socialist United Party of Russia Vasily Shestakov, the collaboration of the manual “Learning Judo with Vladimir Putin”. Baburin and Shestakov through the Ministry of Justice will dispute from Rogozin the legality of renaming the Party of Russian Regions into the Rodina party and will surely achieve their own. Even if Rogozin manages to preserve this brand for itself, there is still no prospects in the Duma elections of the Motherland. “Do not go to the fortuneteller - Rogozin and his party will be removed from the 2007 parliamentary elections, as was done in the capital,” says Vyacheslav Nikonov. “A reason for the withdrawal has already been tested: inciting ethnic enmity.”

The agreement "Apple" is zero

The scatter and stagnation on the right flank in 2006 will not only not end, but also exacerbate. After all, there will be only a year left before the elections - the minimum period for which the non -parliamentary party, moreover deprived of the television, can fully prepare for the election campaign. The victory in Moscow of the List of the United Democrats under the Yabloko brand sharply lowered the agreement of Grigory Yavlinsky. “The leader of Yabloko is not ready for unification, and this is the biggest problem of the right flank,” says Vyacheslav Nikonov. “The projection of the Moscow elections for the Duma can play a cruel joke with the Yablokniki,” continues the topic Alexei Makarkin. “Yavlinsky can reason like this: since we have overcame a 10 percent barrier in the MSD, we will get into the State Duma with 7%.” As for the ATP, it is possible that the right ones will again decide to play a separate violin in the Duma elections of 2007 and for this reason they will also not want to unite with anyone. But the addition of the efforts of the “apple”, “our choice”, the Republican Party and the Unified People’s Party of Soldiers' Mothers seems real. On the terms of the "Yabloko".

One hundred years of Kasyanov’s loneliness

In these layouts there is no place for Mikhail Kasyanov. The experts surveyed by the newspaper Unanimous: Kasyanov’s political fate is unenviable. “If Kasyanov in a particular party takes part in the parliamentary elections, then, most likely, it will fail with a bang,” Nikonov believes. “In the new year, Kasyanov would be better to start preparing for the presidential election, bypassing parliamentary.” “Yabloko” will not invite Kasyanov under his banners under any conditions, believing that he has a tank reputation (“country business”) and, as the prime minister, established himself as a liberal. Flying flirting with the power of the ATP Kasyanov is also not a comrade. “To join him in the coalition would mean to subject the party too much political risks,” said Alexei Makarkin. For the same reason, Harry Kasparov, leader of the “Committee-2008 Committee-2008”, is doomed to political loneliness and leader.

Small packaging in the restaurant "At Schweik"

The forecast for the relatively numerous small left parties (the party of the world and the unity of the fiery revolutionary of Sazhi Umalatova, the "freedom and democracy" of the former mayor of Vladivostok Viktor Cherepkov, the Soyuz party Alexander Kudimov, the "national-patriotic forces of Russia" Schmidt Dzoblaev and others) is predetermined by the new requirement of the minimum number of parties in 50 thousand members necessary for state re -registration. All small left will be forced to announce a self -dissolution. Further, options are possible: former party members can be retrained in the movement of managers or join the ranks (in individual quality) of more successful competitors. It is no coincidence that the whole second half of the outgoing year, representatives of the small leftists actively visited all the party raows of the left -wing. The karakulevoy papaha of one of the left partyboats, like the completely bald skull of the other, flashed in the restaurant “at Schweik” - a favorite place for the meeting of members of the LDPR, then Sergei Baburin was in one of the halls of the fashionable “Ararat Park Khayyat”, then in the Cosmos hotel in the Rogozin residents. The most mild conditions of joining are offered by the leader of the party coalition "Patriots of Russia" Gennady Semigin. In the past year, this party received registration of the Ministry of Justice and, on official grounds, took a dozen small left parties and movements under the wing. Places are offered not to incomplete like -minded people, but simply to supporters - as members of the “shadow government”, headed again by Semigin. It is easy to predict that most of the left leaders of the petty packing will be recorded precisely in the "patriots of Russia."

12/26/2005 / Rustem Falyakhov, the material was published in the "newspaper" No. 246 dated December 27, 2005.