The oil rally is gaining move

The Bird PRPP was in the hands of oil speculators, speculative information has always had a huge impact on the energy market. In particular, yesterday it became known that oil, for example, could cheaper because of the "bird flu". According to experts from Deutsche Bank, the cost of a barrel of oil can fall by $ 25 in case the bird flu acquires the character of the pandemic. The experts of the German bank tend to believe that the pandemic will create difficulties in the development of the global economy. According to the analyst of the Bank of Adam Seminski, the global GDP will be reduced by 1-2% if the "bird flu" begins to be transmitted from person to person. In turn, the decline in the economy will lead to a reduction in oil demand by about 2 million barrels per day.

According to the Deutsche Bank report, if the pandemic is “from moderate to cruel”, then subject to the transfer of the virus from a person to a person will take away the lives of 14-70 million people. With this scenario, the bank believes, the GDP of Europe can be reduced by 4%. At the same time, the bank’s report retains a previous oil prices at 60 dollars per barrel this year and $ 45 per barrel in 2007. At the same time, the pandemic of "bird flu" is not included in the list of risk factors taken into account in this forecast. At the same time, experts note that oil demand in 2006 will increase by 1.6 million barrels per day - to 84.9 million. In early February, the Bird flu, previously observed mainly in Asian countries, reached Europe. Cases of the disease were registered in Austria, Hungary, Germany, Greece, Italy, Romania, Slovenia, France and Switzerland. According to the World Health Organization, since 2003 at least 98 people have died from the Bird flu.

According to the Deputy Chairman of the Council for the Study of the Productive Forces of the MECHAR and RAS, Alexander Arbatov, AIDS is no less dangerous, but its distribution has not yet been affected by the price of oil. In addition, recently, not demand is increasingly affecting the fluctuations in the cost of “black gold”, but the speculative information that appears in the market. At the end of the nineties, the real oil price ranged around $ 10 per barrel. The same Deutsche Bank made a forecast for the price of oil, according to which it was supposed to amount to $ 8 per barrel. Then it was close to the truth, since in the world, and especially in the Asia-Pacific region, a serious economic recession was observed, and the price of $ 8 was justified by the fall in demand.

It is worth noting that in the last three or four years, the demand for oil in the world and the same Europe has not increased much. For example, according to IR Prospekt, oil consumption in Europe in 2002 amounted to 15.27 million barrels per day. By 2005, it increased only to 15.6 million. In general, in developed countries, including North America and Japan, consumption increased from 47.96 to 49.76 million barrels. Growth in countries with a developing economy increased from 29.7 barrels per day in 2002 to 30.4 million barrels in 2005. As for the forecast for 2006, one can also note either the preservation of demand or a slight increase. In Europe, the demand remains at the same level; In general, in developed countries it will increase to 50.2 million barrels per day, and in developing ones will be 34.78 million barrels per day.

According to the analyst of IR Prospekt Dmitry Mangelev, oil demand is not the main factor affecting its price. The main role in the market is played by a change in the difference between the volume of production and demand. Any information on changes in the volume of production affects the behavior of market players. Speculators especially monitor the information coming from OPEC member countries. For example, yesterday, the price of oil increased in connection with the attack of rebels on the oil pipeline in Nigeria. On the one hand, this indicates a decrease in production and, accordingly, oil exports, but the real demand for oil remains at its level, while the price is growing at this time. So, the price of April futures for WTI oil during trading in the electronic system of the New York commodity exchange increased by $ 0.10 and amounts to $ 62.87 per barrel.

In addition, yesterday, experts attributed another message to the category of speculative news. The organization of oil exporting countries warned that a recent court lawsuit against Yukos could lead to a further slowdown in oil export growth from Russia. According to the analyst of the company "Entente Capital" Alexander Blokhin, the OPEC statement looks at least strange. Firstly, it is not clear at all why the cartel included Yukos in his report, and secondly, if he wanted to turn it on, he had to do this back in 2003. Because Yukos has not been a leading exporter of Russian oil for a long time.

03/20/2006 / Irina Kezik, the material was published in the newspaper No. 47 dated 03.21.2006.