Diamonds in the nickel frame

The change in the General Director of Alrosa is a new step towards state -control over non -ferrous metals in the implementation of a state strategy aimed at the phased absorption of the largest non -ferrous metals and the formation of a single national mining company on the base of Alrosa, another step has been taken. At the end of last week, it became known about the resignation of the President of Alros Alexander Nichiporuk and the expected appointment of the general director of the Alrosa investment group, Norilsk Nickel, Sergei Vybornov. Without doubting the coming association of the two companies, analysts diverge in the assessment of the deadlines: before or after the presidential election of 2008.

Alexander Nichyporoku will officially announce the reasons for his resignation from the post of President of Alrosa at a press conference. The candidacy of Sergei Vybnunov as his replacement looks logical: on the one hand, he is close to the government of Yakutia and to the Square President Vyacheslav Sttyrov, who was re -elected with the support of Vladimir Putin, and has experience in Norilsk Norkel, which is especially important in the light of the future merger.

The course for the construction of "Alrosa" to the rank of the State Mining Empire was announced in June 2005. Then the Minister of Finance Alexei Kudrin, speaking at a meeting of Alrosa shareholders, said: “In order to withstand competition with developed countries and violently growing China, Russia must in an accelerated pace into economic circulation richest ore and energy resources of the Far Eastern region. This is a priority national task, and the state will solve it, based on large companies that it controls. In the mountainous sphere, Alrosa is the only such company. That is why the Government of the Russian Federation is taking actions to strengthen its position in the company. Thus, conditions will be formed for the creation on the basis of Alrosa by the National Mining Company, which could effectively implement state policy in the field of mineral development both in Russia and beyond the benefit of shareholders and all of Russia. ”

The sensational “divorce” of friends and business partners Vladimir Potanin and Mikhail Prokhorov also fits into the logic of solving a “nationwide problem”. The conclusion of Prokhorov from Norilsk Nickel explains some analysts with the complete loyalty to the authorities of Vladimir Potanin. “Hitting one is always easier than two,” says Vyacheslav Zhabin, analyst IR Brokerkreditservice. The thesis, however, is controversial. Many believe that Prokhorov did not interfere with any merger, and speak only about a fictitious "divorce".

“In fact, between Potanin and Prokhorov there is a“ divorce ”, but only its imitation,” says Stanislav Belkovsky, director of the Institute of National Strategy. “Prokhorov was never an obstacle to the merger, but formally, because of the recent scandals, it became it.” According to the analyst, against the backdrop of Prokhorov’s Kurzhavel adventures in France, the transaction will cause a negative resonance in the world, because “Alrosa”, controlled by the Russian state, acquires property from the custy oligarch in this case. So the “divorce” of Potanin with Prokhorov, according to Belkovsky, is an exclusively image, pure formality and “dancing of the peoples of the Coverer”. “If it weren’t for the scandal, there would have been no“ divorce, ”he continues. - This is a combination in order to “hide” Prokhorov. In fact, nothing changes: Potanin and Prokhorov remain partners of 50 to 50 in the business that is now transferred to Prokhorov and which will remain common. ”

This is partly confirmed by the competent source of Gazeta, who asked not to name his name. “The decision on the transfer of Norilsk Nickel“ Alrosa ”was made“ upstairs ”and agreed for a long time,” the source says. - Potanin and Prokhorov left the “pole” as a squeezer.

Vyacheslav Zhabin from Broker Creditservis is inclined to see in the current tendency to crush the state for all non -ferrous and strategically important metals. “Look at the ferrous metallurgy: the volume of smelted steel is 1 billion 250 million tons per year,” says the analyst. “And aluminum, for example, the market volume is 30 million tons per year.” That is why the Kremlin is not interested in ferrous metallurgy: industry enterprises really and effectively contribute to GDP. But in non -ferrous strategic metals, the state wants to get full control. The first swallow was the VSMPO Avisma - one of the world's largest Titan manufacturers. The next milestone will be Norilskell. "Well, how not to control the half of the global Palladium market!" - says Zhabin.

Analysts do not converge only in terms. According to Stanislav Belkovsky, "the completion of the transaction can be expected until the end of the current half of the year." Vyacheslav Zhabin does not agree with him. “Before the 2008 elections, no one will make such a purchase,” the analyst says. “The capitalization of Norilsk Nickel is $ 30 billion, and if they pay them to Potanin now, the current government risks being accused of what has benefited the next oligarch.”

Is it possible to assume that what is happening in Alrosa is another evidence of the course for the creation of state corporations - Champions?

Mark Urnov / Chairman of the Board of the Center for Political Technology, President of the Expertise Foundation

From my point of view, yes. The issue of this has long been discussed on the sidelines. The absorption of either Alrosa is very likely to be some other structure, or the creation of a “champion” corporation based on the company itself. And the closer to 2008, the more intensively the process will go - all this is a reflection of global restructuring the economy and redistribution of property.

Flun Gumerov / President of the jewelry company Almaz-Holding, member of the Higher Council of the Association "Guild Jewelers of Russia"

No, hardly. I do not think that something will change dramatically, and I believe that Nichiporok has fulfilled his task. And also the state, probably, thinks. He had to increase the share of federal property, and he did it. Of course, today the influence of the federal government is many times more than before the arrival of Nichiporuk. Now, apparently, other tasks are set. And managers from year to year, unfortunately or fortunately, are also changing.

In general, there was talk that the state wanted to increase its share, say, by increasing the authorized capital of Alrosa by the infusion of Smolensk "Crystal" there. But they did without it.

Norilsk Nickel today is a private company, although the press often writes about a possible merger of it and Alrosa, including by transforming property. But how the basis it has, we must ask the owners. I think it would be best to answer all the questions Alexei Kudrin, as the chairman of the supervisory board.

Nikolai Kuryanovich / State Duma deputy

That is how this can be explained. The time of distribution on preferential conditions through collateral auctions and other incomprehensible schemes that were practiced in the 90s are coming to an end. The authorities impose its hard hand on everything that brings unconditional profit and is profitable by definition.

But here this fact is doubtful (and this applies to state corporations at all): under the guise that there is a state -ownedness, the owners of the remaining shares are people who are not known to the general public. That is, the same government officials, only through some dummies. Under the guise of supposedly nationalization, a narrow layer of state oligarchs takes everything to their hands.

The political conclusion is the redistribution of property, the strengthening of the muscles before the responsible elections. And this is all against the background of the fact that a strict reformatting of the entire political space in Russia is coming. As a stroke, you can add that the people should not be seduced: he will not get anything anyway. Instead of Nichiporuk, there will be some Nikiforok, for example, that's all. And also a political subermination: what is happening is an excavation of additional powers (in the form of financial preferences) in the regions. That is, the rigid attachment of everyone to Moscow, so that the regional authorities could not finance the locals - in a good way - nationalists and patriots.

04/04/2007 / Vladimir Stepanov, Oksana Gavshina; The survey was prepared by Alexei Smirnov, the material was published in the "newspaper" No. 20 dated 05.02.2007.