Heavy bowels

Throughout the world, the introduction of new oil and gas fields of delay in the development of the largest oil and gas fields can increase due to the growth of companies and technical difficulties. This, in turn, can lead to a significant increase in oil prices. Such a warning is contained in the last report of Citigroup. Analysts argue that the most slowly developing projects include projects operating on the basis of an agreement on the division of products (SRP). Entering the projects of the state only complicates the situation.

Slow down epidemic

International practice shows that Russia is far from the only country that reduces the rate of development of the most complex and promising deposits. Among the main delayed projects, Citigroup calls the giant Kazakhstani Kashagan field. The delay in its development is already three years and is explained, as you know, by the dissatisfaction of the state by the work of the project operator - the Italian ENI, as well as the lack of political sympathy for the company.

Gorgon is also experiencing problems with the launch of its Australian project by Chevron. The start of development of the field is scheduled for 2011, but, apparently, this date will not be final, the Citigroup analysts reported. The Norwegian Statoilhydro also faced significant delays, which repeatedly postponed the development of one of the most famous deposits in the North Sea - Snochvit. A tangible blow to the oil and gas industry was also transferred to the launch of the Thunderhorse deposit in the Gulf of Mexico, the Indonesian gas project of Tangguh of the British BP and the Nigerian Bonga deposit of Shell.

According to analysts, the result of such slowness will be a decrease in production volumes, which will inevitably lead to an increase in oil prices. It is noteworthy that high energy prices make the development of complex deposits with profitable, projects are launched, but they are faced with delay, as a result of which oil prices are growing even more. Thus, paradoxically, the decision on the development of the least affordable deposits negatively affects oil pricing.

What is the reason

Citigroup analysts explain the reason for the delay in projects by increasing the complexity of field development, technical and financial unpreparedness of companies. There is another explanation of this trend. According to an analysis conducted by the Cambridge Association of Energy Research (CERA), one of the reasons for the non -compliance with the planned deadlines for the delivery of some oil and gas projects is the lack of highly qualified specialists. By 2010, employees' deficiency can reach 10-15% of the amount sufficient to implement projects. “We already know projects for which not a single company is taken due to the lack of appropriate personnel, therefore, in the near future, the presence of qualified personnel will turn into a serious problem,” said the representative of CERA, FACTER.

According to CITIGROUP experts, the reports of the division of products between companies and governments also contributed to the tightening of the deadlines. Project expenses based on SRP are growing faster than ordinary projects. Another risk factor is the transition of control over projects from large international companies to local state -owned companies, the Citigroup report noted.

End of the era of light oil

The opinion of foreign colleagues is shared by the Russian expert community. “SRP projects are really less effective than ordinary ones. The fact is that large deposits automatically fall into the category of strategic and are supervised by government agencies. The course of their development is controlled by a state, which often determines the beginning of development in accordance with its own necessity. As a result, operators have to adapt to the country's economic schedule, which does not always correspond to their own schedule of companies, ”says Alain Rosenthal, director of the Department of Investment of the NKG 2K Audit - Business Consultations.

Director of the Scientific and Consulting Company "SRP-Expertise", one of the developers of the Law on the SCP Mikhail Subbotin is convinced that purely theoretically working in the SRP mode is more profitable than on a license. “This mode allows you to ensure the flexibility of the tax regime and an individual approach to the development of each deposit. However, it is necessary to separate the SRP mechanism itself and the mechanism that exists now in Russia, ”the expert warns. According to him, private companies today are deprived of guarantees for the return of funds invested in the project.

In Russia, there are two main reasons for the delay in the implementation of large oil and gas projects. “The first is objective. Today, the lightest deposits have already been mastered. The development of new subsoil requires unique technical solutions, ”says the expert. The second reason is exclusively national. “In our country, there are a number of problems of a legal and tax nature. We could solve them, but we do not do this, because the price of energy is the one in which the legislators are disconnected, ”the expert jokes.

According to Mikhail Subbotin, an improvement in the situation could contribute to the refusal of dominance in the state -owned industry. “The introduction of a moratorium on the acquisition of state holdings of private companies would force state corporations to send money to solve investment problems, and not to increase their own assets. But talking about such a ban is seriously ridiculous today. The only option is to stimulate private companies. To do this, it is necessary to change the legislation of both tax and subsoil user, repair the law on SRP. Otherwise, the Western fears that Russia cannot be a reliable supplier and provide the market in planned volumes, ”the expert says.

05/05/2008 / Oksana Gavlyn, Evlalia Samedova, the material was published in the newspaper No. 81 dated 05.05.2008.