Final analysis

Fradkova and Kudrina separated Kopeikin yesterday's scandal in the White House on the Krasnopresnenskaya embankment inevitable.

Symptoms

It is not a matter of personal relations between the Minister of Finance Alexei Kudrin and the deputy head of the government of the government Mikhail Kopeikin, although they never nourished warm feelings for each other. Kudrin complained about Kopeikin almost from the moment he was appointed to his post in 2000 - then not the current Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov, but his predecessor Mikhail Kasyanov. In March 2003, at the expanded collegium, the Mayrs invited to her Kudrin (then he was also Deputy Prime Minister) in harsh colors demanded from the prime minister to stop rewriting by the government apparatus of the Ministry of Finance papers, as not corresponding to the letter of the Government Law and unprofessional in spirit. True, three years ago the surname Kopeikin was not publicly named. The former "speaking head" of the government, Alexei Volin, once joked on this subject: "Kopeikin is a doctor of economic sciences, and Kudrin is just a candidate."

The essence of Kudrin’s disagreement is not so much with Kopeikin, but with Fradkov is not limited to the mechanism of using the stabilization fund. The main thing is discrepancies about the economic course. The Minister of Finance has once again outlined his credo: "Reducing inflation is the best way to support the economy." The prime minister, on the other hand, focused on stimulating GDP growth, bearing in mind that the latter is no less reducing inflation than the necrosis of oil -burners in the stabundide. True, the prime minister did not say about who will engage in long -term investments with two -digit annual inflation.

Diagnosis of Kudrin

There are actually two programs in the government: from Kudrin and from Fradkov.

The Minister of Finance offers to start strictly “target inflation”, that is, to clearly declare that the main goal of the government is to reduce inflation (in 2008 to 5.5%). This, according to Kudrin, will solve all other economic problems: an increase in savings, a decrease in loan rates, getting rid of excessive pressure of money (“deposits of 7%, but there are no real projects”). Together with the liberalization of the movement of capital and the entry into the WTO, a decrease in inflation will stimulate GDP growth. Everything else, according to curls, from the evil one. In many ways, this is why the minister is so rigidly protecting his mechanism for using the stab fund, which is not a savings fund for him, which must be preserved from inflation, placing its funds in highly profitable papers, and in fact the only means of combating inflation. The main thing is to withdraw “hot” money from the turnover, and not to increase it in the accounts of the stab fund. It is no coincidence that Kudrin brought the calculations according to which inflation last year would be 18-20%, not 10.9%if there were no stab fund. In addition, he also defended his tax policy, according to which the tax press on business cannot be sharply facilitated, otherwise a new portion of “hot” Neftedollars will appear in the economy. By the way, the Minister of Finance yesterday assured that in fact, the tax press became easier despite the official figures - in 2004 the revenues of the expanded government amounted to 33% of GDP, and in 2005 - 36%. According to his calculations, everything is not so simple. If you exclude taxes on the supervisors of oil workers and the surcharges of Yukos, then the expanded government last year allegedly got only 29.3% of GDP, while in 2004 - 31.1%. The reason is the decrease in the USN.

The diagnosis of Fradkov

The prime minister did not set out his economic program in detail. Yesterday, the Minister of Economic Development and Trade was done for him (which, by the way, after the government meeting, he supported not Kudrin, but Kopeikin in the dispute about the placement of the stab fund). Herman Gref, after summing up the 2005 results, cited a detailed plan for stimulating GDP growth through additional measures, which were nine. The contribution to GDP growth in almost every of them is estimated to tenths of a percentage.

The first measure, of course, is the national projects. Gref calculated that presidential initiatives can provide an additional GDP growth of 0.17-0.26 percentage points in 2008-2009.

Then new oil and gas projects. It is necessary to master the East Siberian and Timano-Pechora oil and gas provinces, build the Eastern Siberia pipeline-the Pacific Ocean and reset the NDPI for new deposits. GDP growth - up to 0.15%.

Further, the beloved and suffered in the long struggle with Kudrin, the brainchild of Gref is special economic zones . In the medium -term perspective, this is 0.1%.

Up to 0.17% of growth will provide an already created investment fund and the Russian Bank of Development, which have yet to be filled with serious money.

To earn another 0.2-0.3%, Gref proposes to increase the share of expenses for federal and departmental targeted programs affecting high-tech industries.

The improvement of tax administration in 2007 will give, as Gref is sure, 0.1%, and in subsequent years - another 0.15%. Under the improvement of tax administration, Gref means only an accelerated VAT refund, but a decrease in its rate is not provided.

Another 0.1% will give small business. Finally, Gref promises to expand companies access to financial resources and improve government administration and state department.

In total, Gref counted from 0.99 to 1.23% of additional growth. Thus, in 2008 or a year later, GDP growth may approach 7.2% per annum. And this figure is enough to doubling GDP, however, not by 2010, as the president set the task, but at least by 2012.

But Fradkov is enough to present to Vladimir Putin a different economic program from the Kudrinsky. It is no coincidence that yesterday the prime minister demanded from the ministers public discussions about the stab fund to stop and begin to implement it, the Fradkovsky course.

How to protect the stabund from inflation, the newspaper correspondent was explained by the deputy head of the White House apparatus Mikhail Kopeikin

“It is known that if the means denominated in the national currency lie without movement and are not used in any way, then their purchasing power will decrease over the corresponding period of inflation. This is the first -year student of any economic institute. It is unfortunate that the Minister of Finance does not know these economic basics.

As for the calculations, they are prepared on the basis of well -known techniques, which over the past 50 years no one but A.L. Kudrina, did not refute.

In addition, the materials sent to the Ministry of Finance taken into account the loss of budget, designed without taking into account the influence of other factors. These materials by A.L. There are, therefore, he either did not read them, or there is a certain distortion of facts.

In addition, in connection with the non -use of the funds of the stabilization fund for 2004 and 2005, in connection with the non -use of the budget, in fact, the same volumes are indicated by the Accounts Chamber and a number of independent expert centers.

At the same time, the government never learned from A.L. Kudrin, how the budget earned billions of dollars, doing nothing at the same time. ”

Employers will answer for salary delays

Yesterday, the government approved the amendments to the Criminal Code and the Code of Administrative Offenses, tightening responsibility for delaying the payment of salaries, pensions, benefits, scholarships and other payments provided for by law. “Despite the improvement of the situation with repayment of wage arrears in recent years, this problem is still one of the most relevant,” the explanatory note to the bill is noted. Indeed, according to Rosstat, the total wage arrears in Russia in January 2006 increased by almost 25% and by February 1, 2006 amounted to 7.186 billion rubles. At the same time, the debt due to underfunding from budgets of all levels amounted to 417 million rubles and raised compared to January 1, 2006 by 219 million rubles, or 2.1 times. In total, 1.1 million people, or every 25th worker, had a wage arrears on February 1.

After the bill is adopted yesterday, delays with the payment of salaries to their employees will cost employers much more expensive than now. So, the fines established by the Criminal Code for delayed salaries for more than 2 months increase from 100-200 minimum wages (from 10 to 20 thousand rubles) to 120 thousand rubles, and in cases that have entailed grave consequences-from 300-700 minimum wages (30-70 thousand rubles) to 120-350 thousand rubles. At the same time, it was decided to increase the minimum amount of the fine provided for by the Code of Administrative Offenses for "violation of labor legislation and labor protection", from 5 to 10 minimum wages (from 0.5 to 1 thousand rubles).

03/02/2006 / Konstantin Smirnov, the material was published in the newspaper No. 36 dated 03.03.2006.