Catch up and overtake Germany

Every working Russian must remember that the future is formed today. Photo: Gennady Gakhkhov/Russian newspaper forgive economic leadership in Europe by 2030

By 2030, Russia will turn into the largest economy in Europe, overtaking Germany. Such conclusions were drawn in their study by PricewaterhouseCoopers specialists. Russian economists did not believe them. In their opinion, the European leadership of Russia is possible only under extremely favorable conditions, and the creation of illusions causes only harm comparable to the promise to build communism in the USSR by 1980.

Russia will be among the largest developing worlds of the world, which in the next 20 years will be supplanted from the first positions of traditional leaders - the industrial powers of the West, is approved in the report of the consulting company PricewaterhouseCoopers (PWC). In the place of the "Big Seven" (G7), which includes the USA, Japan, Germany, France, Great Britain, Italy and Canada, a new group will come - E7 (Emerging Markets), which unites countries with new developing markets: China, India, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Indonesia and Turkey.

PWC experts note that by 2019, the E7 group in its total GDP will be equal to the G7. But on equal terms, two blocks will not exist for a long time: E7 has a much larger growth potential. Since 2020, the “developing seven” will begin to overtake the G7, and by 2030 their GDP will be 30% higher than the total GDP of the current “large seven”. The growth rate of developing economies is all the more amazing, given that in 2000 G7 GDP has twice the E7 GDP. In the present, 2010, the difference between the costs of the economies of these two blocks is about 35%, the PWC report noted.

“If these forecasts come true, then China will become the largest economy in the world already in 2020, and will significantly overtake the United States by 2030,” said John Hoxworth, the head of macroeconomic research PWC. “At the same time, the Indian economy has a chance to grow even faster than China.”

He explains this by the fact that at that time the population of China will become much older in composition than today, and the share of working people will be reduced.

As economists from PWC expect, in 20 years, Russia in the world ranking in terms of GDP will reach fifth place, and in Europe it will become the most powerful economic power, overtaking Germany.

Third place by 2030 in the size of the economy in Europe will be occupied by France.

The main engine for the Russian economy will remain energy resources. "The role of Russia as a European energy superpower is obvious," the authors of the study write.

"This is science fiction"

Meanwhile, Russian economists relate to PWC forecasts extremely skeptical. “It seems to me unrealistic,” said Yevgeny Yasin, the supervisor of the state university, the supervisor of the State University, the Higher School of Economics. “This can only happen under extremely favorable conditions.” At the same time, "creating such illusions is quite dangerous," he warned.

Yasin does not believe in the fact that the well -being of Russia will be based on energy resources. "It is impossible to build the happiness of 140 million Russians for oil," the economist said.

This forecast to the head of the Capital Management Department of the Capital Management Company Kapital, this forecast recalled the promises of Nikita Khrushchev at the XX Congress of the CCP that by 1980 the USSR would overtake the volume of US production and the remaining industrialized countries and will live under communism.

“If we take into account the trends that are now taking place, this is unrealistic,” says Karykhalin about the forecast of PWC. In his opinion, even if the calculations are mathematically correct, in 20 years many events can occur that uploaded the course of development of economies.

If we consider the most positive scenario, then our country theoretically has the prerequisites for leadership in Europe: it is the volume of human and energy resources. “Miracle people have been in minerals by 2030, most likely, they will not run out, another question is how much they will cost,” Karykhalin notes.

In the direction of innovative development, on which the government relied in its concept of long -term development, nothing is being done so far. Russian raw materials companies are becoming stronger, and the innovative has yet shown too little, the economist says.

Asia, go ahead!

The optimism of researchers can be justified the long -term forecast. On a twenty -year horizon, it is difficult to make an accurate assessment. So, if a similar forecast was made in 1989, no one would be surprised at the leadership of the USSR in Europe. The basis in such studies, as a rule, are human and natural resources that are not subject to strong changes in the long term. Therefore, Russia and Asia have an advantage over developed countries.

The permutations in the ratings of the largest economies occur already before our eyes. For example, according to the results of last year, China should overtake Japan and become the second largest economy in the world. According to the numbers released the other day, China's GDP in 2009 amounted to $ 4.9 trillion, while Japan had the same amount in 2008. At the same time, according to preliminary data, the last economy fell by 6%last year. Japan will announce official data on GDP only in February.

As the head of the International Monetary Fund, Dominic Struss-Kank, said on Wednesday, in 2010 the growth of the world economy will exceed previously predicted 3%, while the administration of Asian markets will be at the forefront. The growth of this region, excluding Japan, in his opinion, will exceed 7%.

Plans of the authorities

According to the concept of long-term socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for the period until 2020, adopted by the Government of Russia at the end of 2008, the population per capita by purchasing power parity should increase from $ 13.9 thousand in 2007 (42% of the average level of states of the organization of economic cooperation and development) to more than $ 30 thousand in 2020 (70%). The average annual increase by that time was supposed to be 6.5%. At the same time, the share of Russia in the global economy should grow to 4.3 from 3.2% in 2007. However, this forecast did not take into account that in 2009 the Russian economy would go into a recession.

And when will Russia overtake the United States?

Nikita Krichevsky Professor, Doctor of Economics

I would start by the fact that today the only country that sets itself the goal of overtaking the American economy by 2030 is China. However, as a task, it can be set before any economy, but this does not mean at all that this goal will be achieved. The Chinese can reach by 2030 the same indicators that the American economy has today, but the United States can go far, they don’t like to sleep there. Well, as for the PriceWaterhouseCoopers, here, it seems to me, there is largely an element of conjuncture. I'm afraid that the company simply would not mind establishing contact with the Russian government. Whereas about our country I do not have doubts, rather fears about the future of Russia by 2030 as a whole. I am afraid that if we do not conduct modernization, then by this time, Russia as a single state in its current borders simply will simply not. Perhaps we will help to overtake the United States to China, both territorially, resourcely, and with the help of other things.

Moreover, if you return to the modernization I mentioned, then, unfortunately, no prerequisites for this have been discovered. So far, there is no plan, no structure, no directions of modernization, no financial support - nothing.

Worse, we are rapidly losing the status of a regional superpower, we lose the status of an energy superpower. Our regular consumers need our energy carriers less and less, energy conservation is developing in the world, and so on. What are we going to get ahead? Due to the development of trade? But trade is developing due to consumer demand, and consumer demand is based on the distribution of petrodollars, on the one hand, and on import supply - on the other. There is no production: in many positions up to 100% of the goods are imports. As a result, we risk remaining stripped and hungry.

Andrey Cherepanov Head of the "Project of National Development"

In fact, it seems to me that Russia is hardly destined to overtake Germany in 2030, especially if the principles of normal business on the part of the authorities are still violated. And in this case, it will turn out to get around the United States only if we can introduce some people who will strangle the business into the leadership of this country.

However, Russia is quite capable of purely theoretically to become the first economy of Europe. Our population is noticeably larger than in Germany. Therefore, if there were still appropriate labor productivity for every citizen, then why not? We do not think that the Russian will forever vegetate that he will always work weakly, to get drunk forever and hope only for oil and gas. No, a citizen of Russia is actually no worse than a German. The main thing is that they do not interfere with from above and that the oil tower does not pump out all the juices and all the desire to work out of us.

Dmitry Orlov Director General of the Agency of Political and Economic Communications

I think that the PriceWaterhousecoopers forecast only seems ridiculous, while in fact the scale of the Russian economy is such that with normal development it will largely restore those positions that were, for example, in the late 1970s. And this will be enough to become the largest economy in Europe. True, this does not mean that we will have the best standard of living or the largest volume of industrial production.

As for the United States or China, you must be realistic here. Russia is a large regional power, a serious player in world politics, but our economy is unlikely to once compare with the USA and China.

Igor Jurgens Vice President of the RSPP, chairman of the board of the Institute of Modern Development

20 years after we overtake the whole of Europe! However, here I, of course, are joking. In fact, if we use the potential given to us by fate, then everything is possible. There were no more such predictions that were made at the end of the 19th and 20th century (French, English, German). But each time, unfortunately, these were sad oracles, because we had either a revolution or war and we could not correctly create our own institutions. I believe that the Russian economy can break forward only with the complete reconstruction of our administration, society, politics, and so on.

The article was published in the publication "Gazeta", No. 11 dated January 25, 2010