Oil - to the barrier!

In the next few weeks, oil prices can reach $ 80 per barrel on the eve of the past weekend World oil prices after short stability continued to increase. The reason for this was the message of the International Energy Agency (IEA) that in 2008, global oil demand will increase by 2.5% to 88.2 million barrels per day. As a result, the price of August futures for WTI brand oil in the Electronic System of the New York Model Exchange (NYMEX) on Friday at 12.30 Moscow time amounted to $ 72.87 per barrel, which is $ 0.37 higher than the final quota of the previous day of trading. The cost of Brent oil futures for August on the ICE Futures London Exchange on July 13 increased by $ 0.18 to $ 76.58 per barrel.

According to the IEA report, it will be possible to smooth out the situation only by modernizing oil refineries. This will avoid deficit in the market due to the processing of heavy varieties, which can lead to a decrease in prices. But modernization cannot be carried out in a short time.

Recently, almost weekly consumers and oil manufacturers have been exchanging statements about the shortage of raw materials in the market and geopolitical problems, which lead to a constant increase in prices. At the same time, oil importers accuse the OPEC of insufficient levels of raw oil production, and the organization of oil exporters claims that high oil prices are associated with a speculative game, geopolitical factors and problems in the processing industry, but not with the level of production of raw materials, which is quite enough on the market. And it seems that they are closer to the truth.

Be that as it may, at the moment, industry analysts are more and more inclined to the opinion that in the near future oil prices will reach their historical maximum. According to Alexander Demyanovich, the analyst of the National Reserve Bank AKB, this is facilitated by all short -term and medium -term factors. “Firstly, oil reserves in the United States are lower than expectations. Secondly, the situation in Nigeria is heating up. Thirdly, Iran will soon launch new centrifuges, and again there will be strict statements on both sides of the conflict. In addition, fighting in the gas sector, as last year in Lebanon, are possible. Finally, a month and a half later in the USA there is a season of hurricanes that can reduce production in the Gulf of Mexico, ”the expert notes.

The head of the analytical department of Brokerkreditservice, Maxim Shein shares the point of view of his colleague. “In fact, in the near future, oil prices will grow and remain higher than $ 70 per barrel. But today it is definitely impossible to talk about historical maximums. Oil is getting more expensive, and the dollar is falling. Although it is worth noting that in the current conditions, the historical maximum would not interfere with the oil workers. After all, the cost of oil production is growing. There is simply no economic sense to extract oil and sell $ 40. In addition, today the prerequisites for increasing demand are evident, ”said Maxim Shein in a conversation with the newspaper.

The expert of the oil and gas sector NKG “2k Audit - Business Consultations” Lazar Shamis, in turn, emphasized that

OPEC has already made statements that she could not stop oil prices. “A number of factors influenced the growth of quotations: news from Nigeria, and fighting in Gaza, and the season of hurricanes; This caused a semblance of panic on the market. The price either drops, then rises, the lag is quite large - up to $ 1. Moreover, on different exchanges are traded in different ways: Ice is growing, and Nymex is falling, ”the expert noted.

According to Lazar Shamis, after the weekend, when NYSE does not work, some more increase should be expected. “Prices are likely to fluctuate in the region of $ 74-77 per barrel for several more days and can reach a maximum of $ 78-79, but next week they should be stabilized or even fall. $ 80 per barrel is a serious psychological barrier. US reserves are growing, and if at least one factor disappears, for example, gas, then the price will fall, ”said the analyst.

In the medium -term perspective, experts believe, you can wait for local Rostov against the backdrop of news from Nigeria and Gaza, but in general, before the beginning of autumn, the price will range in the $ 75 mark.

As for Russia, the domestic oil prices and oil products will change slightly. “In August, export duties will increase again, respectively, more oil will be processed within the country, so the price of gasoline will remain at the same level. In addition, there will be a seasonal decline in consumption, which will also be a brake of price growth. I think that the administrative factor will play. The state will again not allow oil companies to significantly increase oil prices. It is possible that the FAS will also be more rigidly monitoring the market, ”concluded Lazar Shamis.

07/15/2007 / Irina Kezik, the material was published in the newspaper No. 127 dated 07.16.2007.