Leni economy

Salaries are growing faster than the labor productivity yesterday, the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade (MART) posted on its website the traditional monitoring of the current situation in the Russian economy (this time in January-February 2007). Almost all published macroeconomic indicators demonstrate a powerful spurt.

Indeed, GDP since 2000 (then it added 10% in 12 months) not at such a pace - 8.4% in January -February 2007 compared to the same period last year. Industrial production also for the first time in the last seven years has been ahead of the growth rates of GDP - plus 8.6%. Thus, it was, as noted in the study of Mart, "overcame the tendency to slow down the growth rate of industrial production at the end of 2006." And now, the director of the consolidated department of macroeconomic forecasting by Andrei Krypach has more reason than in August last year (see the newspaper of September 19, 2006), when the industry overcame the decline, to argue that Russia is still not infected with the Dutch disease virus. In other words, an excess of petrodollars no longer suppresses, as previously expected, Russian industry.

The basis of its growth in winter was not predicted a year ago by no one of government economists a sharp surge of investments - 21.2%. Whereas a year ago, the growth of investments in fixed assets was almost invisible - 2.7%. That is, seven -time investmentation, which is also recognized in the mayors, is explained largely by the low base of the previous period. But more important is another. The state remains the main accelerator of the investment. According to Mart, the share of state investment is non -resident - 19.8%.

But the fact remains. Russian macroeconomic indicators will largely chop like yeast in the last two to three months. The construction is especially impressive: the total increase in January -February 2007 amounted to 25.4%, and the growth of housing in February was as much as 72%. The construction boom (by the way, as they again recognize in the mayors, caused in many respects warm in winter), it also provided the lion's share of Promrost: cement in February 2007 produced more by 51.1%than a year ago, brick - by 20.7%. Here, by the way, we note that the local production of cement and brick in Russia cannot be suppressed by any increase in imports. Although imports, in turn, grow faster than export: 33.1% against only 0.3% (that is, on the verge of statistical error). We also add that the rate of inflation, as well as rising prices in industry, has also slowed significantly.

In general, in the government they are already beating in the litaurus. There is something to report to the president, including about the doubling of GDP. But there is also a spoonful of tar, which can make all this barrel of honey inedible.

GDP growth is based on how repeatedly emphasized in the mayors, on investment, as well as consumer demand. The latter is in many ways replacing an export accelerator now. Real cash income over the past two months increased by 12.7%. The average monthly salary is even more - by 17.5%. Plus, a consumer loan is growing. Everything would be fine. Moreover, all accelerating imports even extinguish inflation by increasing the supply of goods. But, as calculated in Rosstat, labor productivity is more and more lags behind money payments. In January 2006, the gap was not so large: the salary increased by 8.5%, and labor productivity was 7.7%. In January - respectively, at 14.9 and 7.9%.

We are talking about an extremely dangerous situation: workers receive an increasing salary for the same volume and quality of products, especially in the budget sphere. In other words, the quality of growth in Russia has not advanced either on the iot and continues to completely depend on world oil prices (oil -eater ensures the monetization of the Russian economy). The current generations actually live at the expense of future. And no stab funds will correct the situation until the macroeconomic indicators serve the election targets.

Would you trust anyone?

Evgeny Bushmin / Chairman of the Committee of the Federation Council on Budget

The stash is what could be used at any time when it is necessary. Therefore, I would not invest in long -term projects, but would keep them in quite quickly sold securities. Moreover, most likely these would be obligations of a limited list of advanced foreign states. I would also like to note that I do not see the difference between, say, by the obligations of the United States and dollars, because it is printed and placed in the market both, and the yield of securities is incomparably higher. As for Russian securities, they need to place the Future generation fund in them. In addition, there you can implement some projects, because this fund is no longer a conservative preservation, but development.

Valery Fadeev / Co -Chair of Business Russia, Director of the Institute of Public Design

The most reliable way to use this money is their investment or use as insurance funds for investment. All decisions, of course, must make private capital, and state money must help these decisions, reduce risks. Money only then becomes value when they are invested somewhere, while they are stored somewhere, the risks are still very large. Moreover, in the current unstable and extremely uncertain economic situation in the world.

Leonid Gozman / Deputy chairman of the Federal Political Council of the ATP

I am not a specialist in this matter, so I would entrust his decision to those who understand him and who causes trust in me personally. For example, it seems to me that this is a direct case of the Minister of Finance, and with his decision I would agree in advance, since the minister is now, in my opinion, just brilliant!

Vladimir Klimanov / Director of the Institute for Reforming Public Finance

Firstly, the decision on where to send money is a political decision. You can direct them for current needs - maybe the country needs them so much! Secondly, we are now objectively obtaining overpromitations from oil, which will subsequently fall, so having some kind of reserve would be extremely useful. Third, if this reserve really exceeds the necessary volume, then part of it should be directed to investments: long -term and aimed primarily at the country's internal needs. That is, probably, you should not send funds to any export pipelines, but we must focus on the development of roads, power plants, social infrastructure and maintain the development of future territories. In addition, of course, it is necessary to extremely limit the spraying of financial resources through social programs and current needs.

03/26/2007 / Konstantin Smirnov, the survey was prepared by Alexei Smirnov, the material was published in the newspaper No. 54 dated 03/27/2007.