Translated material
Virtuoso Gref
The government is learning not to repeat its mistakes yesterday, the head of the Mayor German Gref pleased the president with statistics. It turned out that according to the results of five months, the inflation is low, and GDP grows faster than expected. But the most amazing - industrial production in May 2006 increased by 10.6% compared to MAI 2005. And this is almost behind the facet of economic laws. However, there is a rational explanation to this fact.Prices are not rising
Inflation for the first half of the year, according to German Gref, will be 6.2-6.3%. Last year, prices reached 8%by the end of June. The pace specified at the beginning of this year said only that by December inflation would again be measured by a two -digit number. However, a miracle happened in the spring. Prices stopped abruptly and, judging by Gref’s data about inflation of 0.1% in early June, are not going to accelerate further. And ahead is traditionally defaling August and September.
Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Zhukov is sure that this miracle is quite man-made. “Nothing special happened, inflation simply corresponds to the forecast adopted by the government,” the Deputy Prime Minister proudly claims.
A sharp surge in prices at the beginning of the year is due to almost emerging tariffs for the services of natural monopolies. First of all, we are talking about housing and communal services. At the end of winter - early spring, they pressed the monopolists. The cost of utilities was frozen by President Vladimir Putin, and gasoline prices stopped after a series of meetings of Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov and the head of the Ministry of Industry, Viktor Khristenko with oil workers.
However, there is another explanation of a low level of inflation - the ongoing strengthening of the ruble course. As a result, disturbing data come from the Foreign Economic Units of the MART: there are more and more cheap imports, and more expensive exports are less and less. This option explains the decrease in inflation: the replacement of expensive domestic goods by cheap imported, the Central Bank strengthens the ruble, the prices are slowing down. It seems to be clear, but according to the logic of things, strengthening the ruble and the appearance of imported goods on the shelves are clogged nails in the coffin of Russian industry. In theory, she should just move into another world. But - Oh miracle! - In May, industrial production grew by 10.6% compared to the previous Maya. Moreover, it grew primarily due to processing industries: the production of cars (24.3%), cement production (22.5%) and steel pipes (23%), as well as meat production (18.1%).
GDP has grown. 6.2% in five months. Herman Gref even stated that "obviously, it would be necessary to adjust the plans a little." In the direction of increasing growth rates, of course.
If you continue the logical chain, it turns out that the Russian economy has an immunity against "Dutch illness" - an unprecedented phenomenon for the country, which the flow of petrodollars and, as a result, cheap imports overwhelmed.
Statistics are not lying
In the numbers given by Herman Gref and a little earlier Rosstat, there is no doubt. Guru of Russian economic science Evgeny Yasin to the question "Do you trust the Rosstat?" He answers: "Not that I do not trust - I use them." It is clear that the question is how to juggle exactly the statders.
To understand why industrial production has grown so seriously, you need to return in May last year, when a similar indicator, but already in comparison with a rather successful 2004 year, amounted to only 1.4%. Why so little? There were problems with the excessive strengthening of the ruble course - the Dutch disease was just manifested. The business lived in tax fear, tax claims were put forward to several large companies. Actually, the success of May-2006 explains the failure of May 2005. And the industry in May 2005 compared to April 2005 (and not with May 2004) fell sharply-immediately by 6.4%. The main thing: no jump or jerk has happened now. Moreover, compared with April, the growth rate of industrial products was negative: - 0.8%. However, Gref himself realizes this in this: "Such growth is largely due to low indicators of last year." Nevertheless, the first PR plan is set by the figure of 10.6%.
What is the statistics of?
The stubborn reluctance of the domestic industry is connected with the trade wars that Russia wages, primarily with Ukraine and other closest neighbors. A textbook example: an anti -dumping investigation against steel pipes from Ukraine. As for another important article that gave an increase, the release of cars, here we are talking primarily about the screwdriver assembly, and this is the real merit of the MECTR, who paid blood for each signed investments. It turns out that "Dutch disease" can be treated - there would be products sales markets (as in an autoprom) and rigid intervention from the state (as with imports of pipes and meat).