Well, a very low start

The production of machines and equipment in January-February decreased by 26.4% Rosstat published the results of industrial production in February. They harmoniously complement data on prices. If inflation has already fulfilled the six-month norm in two months, exceeding 4% (the budget-2006 Law is recorded at the level of 8.5%), then industry is getting closer to braking: in January-February 2006, compared with the first two months of 2005, it increased by 2.7%, and in February it was only 1% of it in relation to February 2005 and on February 2005 and 0.7% compared to January 2006.

So far, the political resonance in the White House and in the Kremlin is caused only by inflation, which is not succumbing to the government, but it is quite obvious that the statistics of Russian industry should cause no less alarm. In general, a classic picture of "Dutch disease" is formed: inflation, like a slowdown in industry, cause high oil prices primarily.

To the "art" of January in Russia are already used to it. This New Year's month clearly does not have shock work. The more alarming the results of February. In February 2005, in annual calculus, industry growth amounted to 4.1%, about the same analysts were also expected from February this year. Interfax even conducted a survey, which showed that the expected growth in industry in February in annual calculus was 4.4%; In fact, we repeat, growth was only 1%.

By the way, there is an occasion to return to the topic of monthly indices. When calculating the growth rate of inflation, the government refused for this method for an understandable reason: in this case, inflation in 2005 would be at least 12.7%. If, in addition, the account method is resorted to in relation to industry statistics, it turns out, firstly, that since September last year (see schedule), Russian industry has been demonstrating the stopped growth rates. Secondly, in the monthly indices of the January indicators of the Russian industry of 2006, they show a fall in relation to December 2006 at 16.5%.

Actually February statistics of this year are no less characteristic. Processing industries reduced their results in the annual calculus by 0.1%, while oil and gas condensate production increased by 1.3%, gas production by 2.5%, iron ore by 6%, and coal by 5.7%. In finished products, the record holder is the production of steel pipes (+9.2%), the production of gasoline (+5.7%) is in second place, despite the finished rolling of ferrous metals -1.3%.

2006 has just begun, but so that its prospects cause serious concerns. Already in 2005, statistics warned: with an increase in GDP of 6.4%, industry increased by only 4%. The clearance in 2006, most likely, may increase even more. Then it will no longer be a clearing, but scissors that can easily cut out of GDP growth the most important thing is the growth of industry. Whatever government economists say, these scissors demonstrate one thing: the growth of Russian GDP occurs due to the growth of oil prices, that is, due to the increase in export value. And this is evidence of the extreme instability of the macroeconomic situation in Russia.

The government is in alarm. They directly say about the "economic decline in January-February 2006." It is expressed in a fall by 25.6% in the annual calculation of the key index of manufacturing machines and equipment. Experts admit that such a development of events "can only be partially explained by adverse weather conditions and a decrease in electricity supply." "Government experts explain the growth of the production of machines and equipment" either by declining export growth or a decrease in competitiveness in the domestic market, "and this, in turn, is explained by" a slowdown of investment in fixed assets (growth in January-February 2006 by 1.6% versus 7.2% in 2005 in 2005) with absolutely reducing construction work (in January-February 2006, a reinforced concretion 5.4% against growth of 5.2% in 2005). "

03/20/2006 / Nikolai Vardul, the material was published in the newspaper No. 47 dated 03.21.2006.