The epidemic is inevitable

Developed anti -info vaccines may not help the number of poultry flu, in Turkey, up to 18 people grew yesterday, and Russian experts no longer doubt the approach of the Poultry Picku Pandemia. “It is clear that the epidemic will be, it is only unknown which flu virus will cause it,” said Gennady Onishchenko, chief sanitary doctor of the Russian Federation yesterday. According to the forecasts of scientists of the Research Institute of Influenza, the pandemic can come to Russia over the next two years. At the same time, doctors do not exclude that the vaccine developed at the Research Institute of Influenza, the production of which should begin in April, will be powerless against the virus, if it is expected to mutate.

It will be possible to state the beginning of the pandemic of "bird flu" at the moment when the virus learns to be transmitted from person to person. Today, such cases have not yet been recorded: according to experts of the World Health Organization, all those sick with "bird flu" in the countries of Southeast Asia and in Turkey infected them from birds. However, the mutation of the virus can occur at any time. One of the possible options for turning the disease from “bird” into “human” is if the H5N1 virus meets in the human body with another influenza virus. “H5N1 superficial proteins will be based on another virus that can easily spread among people, and then it will be possible to talk about the pandemic stage. Sooner or later it should happen, ”Gennady Onishchenko is sure.

The fear of the mutation is caused by fears that the existing anti -info vaccines will not help: then the pandemic can, like the Spanish at the beginning of the 20th century, collect many human sacrifices. At the moment, there are already several options for a vaccine from today's strain of "bird flu", and manufacturers of the vaccine developed in the United States are going to release more than 7 million doses. The Russian version of the vaccine should be ready for March-April, however, there are no excessive antifungal vaccinations. “It makes no sense to instill everyone from this virus. First of all, border guards, customs officers, doctors, poultry farm workers and businessmen working with countries where the birds of the "bird flu" were registered. Perhaps tourists will also be vaccinated, ”said Oleg Kiselev, director of the influenza of influenza.

However, doctors with scientists do not agree. “Scientists use the concept of“ there is a vaccine ”in their own way. It is for them if she is in a test tube. And for doctors, it is, if the drug has passed all the necessary tests, approved and available even in the district clinic of a small town of Central Russia, ”said Gennady Onishchenko. At the same time, the chief physician quite skeptically responded about the already developed Research Institute of Influenza Vaccine: "The existing drug was bred on the basis of today's strain of the influenza virus and does not take into account its possible mutation."

However, the options for future mutations of dangerous flu can be identified in the near future. Specialists of the World Epidemiological Center, located in London, said that within a few days they would finish the decoding of the genetic code of the "bird flu". “This discovery will allow you to determine in which proteins there were mutations, and then it will be possible to assume with a certain degree of probability how the virus will mutate in the future,” said Colin Blackmore, executive director of the medical research council. But, according to the specialists of the Research Institute of Influenza, the upcoming discovery is unlikely to force scientists to rush to make new vaccines. “Firstly, to assume in what proteins a mutation will occur, it is possible only with a probability of 60-70%. At the same time, superficial proteins are that we know how H5N1 is unlikely to mutate. If the shell remains old, but only the inside of the virus genes, the existing vaccines will be able to protect the person,” the general secretary of the GRIPPA Lyudmila told the newspaper. Tsibalova.

In the meantime, scientists and doctors argue, it remains to hope for old funds. Given the fact that the symptoms of "bird flu" are not much different from the symptoms of the usual annual ARIs - in the first two or three days there is a chills, sore throat, in a quarter of the sick, vomiting and diarrhea are observed - antipyretic type of paracetamol or aspirin, as well as antiviral drugs, can help in the fight against the disease: Arbidol, "Arbidol", "Arbidol". “Cycloferon”, “Herring” or “Remantadin”. “Bird flu” is a kind of ordinary flu, to which we are all used to. And death from it is explained by late appeals for medical help, ”Kiselev believes.

01/12/2006 / Tatyana Seyranyan, the material was published in the "newspaper" No. 2 dated 13.01.2006.