The recession is progressing

Andrei Klepach issued a crisis of an advance Minister of Economic Development Andrei Krypach on Friday said: "The recession in Russia has already begun and, I am afraid, two quarters will not end."

It is no coincidence that Cleepach’s remark about two quarters. The recession is ascertained when the fall of the economy lasts at least six months.

According to forecasters from the department of Elvira Nabiullina, in November a significant drop in industrial production is expected. It will continue in December, and then at the beginning of next year. According to Klepach, the industrial decline in November - December will inevitably worsen the general results of 2008. If the initial forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development proceeded from 6.8%of GDP growth, and specified in early August-from 7.6-7.7%, then last Friday the cloth carefully summed up that economic growth in 2008 would be below 6.8%. He refused to name a more accurate figure. However, it is already known that the GDP growth even in nine months amounted to not predicted by the Ministry of Economic Development 7.7, but 7.3%.

Following the results of the whole year, according to it, will not grow by more than 1.9%. Such a figure can only be obtained with a real decline in industry, since at the end of 10 months an increase of 4.9%was recorded.

Andrei Klepach - the first of the senior officials publicly recognized the fact of a recession in Russia. In addition, it is he who has access to all economic indicators. His immediate superior Elvira Nabiullina has not yet talked about this, just like the Deputy Prime Minister, the head of the Ministry of Finance Alexei Kudrin. President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin also reassure the business community and citizens with forecasts, according to which GDP growth in Russia, although it will slow down, will still be about 3%.

12/14/2008 / Konstantin Smirnov