A drug economy

The MECTR and the World Bank predicted Russian instability usually in December summarize the results of socio-economic development, but this year everything is different. Yesterday, the Ministry of Economic Development published the next clarifications of the forecast for the results of 2006 and 2007. And yesterday the World Bank report on the economy of Russia was presented.

Free cheese

The Martial document is almost the first reaction of government officials to reducing oil prices. As the previous estimate, the annual price of a barrel of Urals oil brand should amount to $ 65. Autumn fall forced forecasters from the German Ministry of Gref to change the forecast indicator by $ 61.2. All other changes are a consequence of the oil recession. "A decrease in the export assessment of goods in 2006 by $ 7 billion is mainly associated with a decrease in the forecast estimate of oil prices, which led to a decrease in the growth rate of general export prices to 118.8% against 124.2% of the initial forecast," the document says.

The government and the President will be pleased with the revision of the export export of oil towards reduction. At the same time, not only the cost component is reduced, but also the physical volume - “due to the fact that more raw materials are sent for processing than planned,” the officials of the Ministry of Economic Development write. However, already at the beginning of next year, a favorable trend may disappear, since the export fee for oil has been significantly reduced from the beginning of this month and the companies will probably try to compensate for the lost profit in foreign markets. This should affect inflation, which by the end of the year should still be below 10%. In fairness, we note that a more accurate indicator - the default - is approaching 20%, and it, unlike the consumer price index, which Rosstat calls inflation, reflects the cost dynamics of a much larger amount of goods. You cannot call nine -percent inflation success if you look at the strengthening of the exchange rate of the ruble. In the forecast of Mart, the strengthening of the national currency is also adjusted towards the increase - and, of course, this has a lot of negative consequences. It turns out that without strangulation of industry by a weak dollar and, as a result, the government will not be able to do anything with the growth of imports with inflation.

Officials and experts sometimes try to deploy the Dutch disease in the other direction.

Nefteedollars are already boven into the economy, and consumer demand continues to grow and even move forward GDP. The forecast of the annual volume of the wage fund is increased by 1.2%. And the growth of GDP, driven by these factors, will not be 6.6%, as previously planned, but 6.8%.

But to satisfy a high need for goods and services will be imported. It, unlike exports, will grow at a higher pace than previously expected.

Russian industry will increase the volume of products by not 4.7%, but by 4.6%. According to Mart, no increase in the production of building materials (also, by the way, a consequence of consumer boards and the growth of real estate demand), nor the growth of oil products production did not compensate for the lags in all sectors of mechanical engineering, in the chemical industry, the production of wood. The mayors explain this by the pressure of imports, while the report of the World Bank speaks of something else.

Mousetrap

The successes of the Russian economy are rather luck than the merit of the government, according to John Litvak, chief economist in Russia. The analysis of the statdresses led him to the fact that a more powerful rise in the economy than expected, led to the absorption of the growing money supply and expenses. In addition, in the structure of the money supply, deposits and accumulations grow faster than cash circulation, which does not promote inflation. So far, the trend is favorable, and by the end of the year, Litvak, like the Scientific Director of the State Unitary Enterprise Evgeny Yasin, predicts the seven percent growth of GDP. In this, he is even more optimistic than German Gref.

But unlike the Russian minister, the World Bank does not see a complacency picture in the medium and long term. The WB pays much attention to the issue of energy supply of the Russian economy: "The rapid increase in consumption and a high degree of production of existing deposits determine an additional increase in prices and the possibility of deficiency." But his experts do not understand why the Russian government limits the possibilities for investment in the fuel and energy systems from abroad and thereby force companies to raise tariffs. For the processing industry, this is a limiting factor. Criticizes the WB and the government course of the state -owned economy. The result of this may be "difficulty entering competitive markets, corruption, unfair competition." And the state’s reluctance to solve these problems can lead to deplorable consequences. "If there is no sharp drop in energy prices, then the current model of economic growth may be stable," the report said. It is emphasized that the matter is not at all "in abundance of resources, but depending on them."

12/05/2006 / Andrey Lavrov, Alexei Dadevich material published in the newspaper No. 224 dated 06.12.2006.