This is not a bravado

The DPRK can conduct nuclear tests on Sunday passions around the North Korean nuclear crisis are heating up every day. The diplomats of world powers condemned Pyongyang immediately after the statements of the DPRK government that the country was going to conduct nuclear weapons tests. The longer the world talks about the North Korean "nuclear threat", the more sharp the speeches of politicians become. Alarm and forecasts of analysts are alarming. There are fears that the nuclear trials that the DPRK can conduct will entail serious changes in the political picture of the whole world. So, some South Asian powers can revise their military doctrine and seriously think about developing their own nuclear arsenal.

Yesterday, Christopher Hill, assistant to the US Secretary of State, made a speech at the University of the University of John Hopkins. The statements of the diplomat against the DPRK were designed in the best traditions of the fiery “anti -terrorist” rhetoric of US President George Bush, to which some Asian countries are already accustomed. According to Hill, North Korea "can either have a future or nuclear weapon, but not at the same time."

“We will not coexist with nuclear North Korea. This is unacceptable for us, ”said US Secretary of State. According to Hill, Washington has already sent a closed message to the representatives of this country at the UN through diplomatic channels.

Hill leads the American delegation in six -way negotiations on the North Korean nuclear program, in which the DPRK, South Korea, Russia, China, the USA and Japan participate. His latest statements clearly testified that the United States is not going to put up with the DPRK nuclear ambitions, all the more concessions. “If the North Korean authorities believe that by launching missiles will be able to enter the nuclear club, then they are deeply mistaken,” Hill added. In turn, Pyongyang continues to declare that it will resume international negotiations only if Washington cancel the sanctions introduced against the DPRK.

The reaction of Russia and China was calmer. Representatives of both countries continue to urge the world community to avoid the escalation of contradictions around the North Korean nuclear problem and solve the conflict diplomatic means. Nevertheless, Moscow and Beijing have repeatedly expressed their concern about Pyongyang's plans.

As the director of the International Center for Koreuding of Moscow State University, Professor Mikhail Pak, said in an interview with the correspondent of the Gazeta, the current DPRK regime may well reinforce his “nuclear threats” with real actions. “The North Korean authorities can act as you like,” the professor believes. “It is likely that they will go to these trials, given that the DPRK has already launched missile launches ... The North Korean regime is unpredictable and is trying to extend its existence in all possible ways.”

Professor PAK believes that the current DPRK authorities are not afraid to face international sanctions. “The DPRK may be in complete isolation, but the regime will successfully act in these conditions,” he said. “Such regimes are tenacious and can exist autonomously for a rather long time.” “It is still difficult to predict the actions of the DPRK, but at the moment one can say one thing: with nuclear trials, this hopeless regime is trying to hold out as long as possible in the political arena,” Pak added.

When the North Korean government begins to test its nuclear weapons. Despite all the statements of the DPRK authorities, US special services have a special opinion. According to their calculations, Pyongyang will receive nuclear weapons only by the end of next year. “If we talk about how much time it takes North Korea (for the development of nuclear weapons. -“ Gazeta ”), we don’t know if their plans for conducting nuclear tests are a real basis,” one of the representatives of the US special services on the basis of anonymity told the American newspaper The Washington Post.

In the meantime, some analysts suggest that the DPRK may begin nuclear trials on Sunday - on the day of the appointment of the DPRK leader Kim Jong Ira, the head of the labor party. There are also assumptions that the tests can begin on Monday - on this day, an official vote on the candidacy of the new general secretary, which the Minister of Foreign Affairs of South Korea, is most likely, will most likely become an official vote on this day.

The number of the Korean newspaper Choson Sinbo, published yesterday, published in Japan, thickened the paints around the DPRK nuclear threat. “This is not a bravado, but a real plan that will be carried out,” the author of one of the articles of this publication assured readers. Chospon Sinbo believes that the North Korean policy of “deterrence of the United States” will soon receive real development in nuclear weapons tests. The actions of the Government of the DPRK indicate the desire of the country's leader Kim Jong Ira "to establish a strong world on the Korean Peninsula."

The results of nuclear tests are unpredictable, analysts say. So, Alan Dupont, an expert at the Sydney Institute of International Policy, told Reuters as follows: “This will surely force Japan to think about a nuclear military doctrine, especially since the most warlike prime minister is now in the country in the country.”

The authors of the report sent by the Republican Party by the State Intelligence Committee after testing the DPRK of their ballistic missiles on July 4-5 this year were also shared by the same opinion. The report warned that the DPRK nuclear tests could push not only Japan, but also South Korea and Taiwan to the development of its own nuclear program, which would become a serious threat of stability in the region. While experts are building forecasts, the DPRK government does not give any comments about the plans for the development of its nuclear program. Only one thing is clear: the North Korean regime is not going to listen to the threats of the United States and the exhortations of the world community.

05.10.2006 / Igor Kryuchkov, the material was published in the newspaper No. 182 dated 06.10.2006.