Running in place

The Russian economy is growing without solving its problems on October 16 in Moscow will be a meeting of the advisory council on foreign investment, in which Russian ministers, led by the Prime Minister and the leaders of foreign companies implementing the largest investment projects in Russia, participate on equal terms. The super -task of the work of the Council is the coordination of investors' plans with the economic policy pursued by the Russian government (including its legislative initiatives). Therefore, investors are preparing a report for each council meeting that reflects their view of the development of events in the Russian economy.

At the disposal of the Gazeta there is a report “Economic situation and investment climate in Russia”, prepared by the American Commercial Chamber in Russia, the main moderator of the Council meetings of ERNST & Young and the expert institution of the RSPP. Addressers of the report are members of the advisory council, the date of its discussion is October 16.

The scheme of building a report is traditional: it all starts for health - about the economic successes achieved by the Russian authorities, and ends for the repose - about the unresolved problems and unfinished reforms noted by investors.

The main goal of the report, of course, is not so much to amuse Russian officials from the economy by recognition of their merits (they themselves care about this day and night), how to demonstrate what prevents the even greater influx of direct foreign investment.

The main achievement: "After a certain decrease in interest in 2003-2004 (the" Yukos case "is not diplomatically mentioned. -" Gazeta ") Foreign investors expect to intensify their activities in Russia, and in the coming years, when the political uncertainty and risks associated with the presidential and Duma elections must be aged."

What, it would seem, still dream? But the speakers immediately lower the reader to the ground. "The economic growth mechanism, as in previous years, was based on the influx of funds from foreign economic activity"; "An unprecedented rise in world oil prices and other raw materials resources" - that is why the Russian economy is growing.

However, her height slows down. “The most noticeable slowdown in growth is observed in mining industries (the main Russian exporters), which need significant investment,” “The effective real ruble exchange rate towards the dollar grew by 2005 by 10.5%” - that is why the growth slowed down.

Further investors already without embellishment call the fact that they do not like in Russia: “The depreciation of the main funds of the production sector, electric power industry and housing and communal services, the low competitiveness and technological lag of industrial industry, the need to develop a production base in raw materials, low efficiency of healthcare systems, education, army, government ... high differentiation of income population ". Further - "modest results of promotion of structural reforms" "in such industries as electric power, housing and communal services, health and education, army, Ministry of Internal Affairs." “Reforming is going on,” the security forces admit, “with a lag from the schedule.”

Well, what can you hope for in this situation? The government gives such an answer: it intends to "in the medium term to reduce inflation to 5-8%, and then hold it at the level of 3%."

The answer is believed by investors, incorrect, because partial: price growth is not something isolated. If there are no structural economic reforms, including, for example, “one window” for small businesses, then prices will not bake.

They do not even back: "Double -digit inflation reduces the investment attractiveness of the economy, worsens the possibilities of its lending, negatively affects the income of the population and the economy as a whole, and helps to preserve inflation expectations."

It's time to summarize. The result is a black and white picture. The white component is still an ongoing positive macroeconomic dynamics. The black component is inflation that does not subordinate to the government, the growth of imports. Bottom line: The thesis, desperately defended by the former economic adviser of the president Andrei Illarionov, is pointless, there is only its number - it is incorrect. The quality of growth of the Russian economy leaves much to be desired. There is growth, and there is no improvement that ensures the growth of the economy’s structure. So the growth is unstable. Everything, as always, is built on an increase in oil prices. And this growth threatens to turn around. If this happens, the Russian economy will finally return to the path of intensive, not extensive development. If you can.

08.10.2006 / Nikolai Vardul, the material was published in the "newspaper" No. 183 dated 09.10.2006.