Counting in Crimea - all in smoke

In Moscow, they are wondering which side Tymoshenko will turn to Russia in the moods of Ukrainian statesmen due to uncertainty with the results of the elections yesterday, a light chaos reigned yesterday. Both sides - both the leader of the Party of Regions Viktor Yanukovych and the orange - proclaimed themselves winners, and both in the evening expressed distrust of the work of election commissions. But as soon as the CEC began to count the votes, anxious notes were found in the orange speeches. Vedomosti on the calculation of votes from territorial district commissions in the east, southern Ukraine and Crimea incredibly entered Kyiv for a long time yesterday. In the evening, President Viktor Yushchenko said that he instructed law enforcement agencies to investigate the circumstances of the delay in the transfer of protocols.

“Yulia Tymoshenko won at least a psychological victory. Exit Polls data is what voters will be remembered,” Vadim Karasev, director of the Kyiv Institute of Global Strategies, told the correspondent of Gazeta.

In Moscow, meanwhile, they wondered which of their hypostases could now turn to Russia by Yulia Tymoshenko. “If she becomes a prime minister, this is not for long,” Boris Nemtsov, former adviser Yushchenko, said in an interview with the newspaper. “People at that age are difficult to change. That she is not an orange princess, and the Red Director is for sure. She will conflict with Russia for any issue.”

According to the Kyiv political scientist Vadim Karasev, now "the one who will not be in the mode of linger in the election company will not be lost and will exceed the topic of falsifications." Ukraine is tired of the elections. "Attempts to organize a new other Maidan will only push the organizers from the negotiation process, at least now," Karasev believes. Another Ukrainian political scientist, Alexei Golobutsky, did not hide his irritation by the fact that the current results had to wait so long. “What is there to count? Even with our idiotic vote counting system, it is possible to count the ballots with 20 parties much faster than it was in 2006, when there were more than 40 parties and blocks,” Golobutsky said in an interview with the newspaper. He believes that "a political game began to resolve the socialists of Alexander Moroz" so that the socialists and communists can form a coalition with the Party of Regions and pull the scales on themselves.

The leaders of the Bloc Yulia Tymoshenko (BYUT), who received congratulations on Sunday at night, decided to gather people in the capital of Monday to participate in protests. “We occupied the Mariinsky Park near the parliament. The regionals got on it. Our task is to hold this place. Perhaps it will come in handy for something for something,” Ruslan Bagmut told the newspaper correspondent, who, along with five dozens of volunteers, urgently hired orange - to live in the Park of the Verkhovna Rada on the high bank of the Dnieper.

New Julia, or Che Guevara in a skirt

Having lost the prime minister’s chair two years ago, Yulia Tymoshenko stopped her usual anti -Russian rhetoric and even visited Moscow, after which the Russian military prosecutor's office suddenly deleted her name from the list of wanted international criminals.

The then adviser to President Yushchenko, the former First Deputy Prime Minister of Russia, Boris Nemtsov, followed Tymoshenko closely, when she worked as Prime Minister, eight months and since then he called her Che Guevara in a skirt.

“It was a disaster for Ukraine and for Russian -Ukrainian relations,” Boris Nemtsov said in an interview with Gazeta. “She managed to start privatization, began to regulate prices, a gasoline crisis arose, then a crisis in the meat market, then it prevented Russian companies that worked in Ukraine. In short, Ukraine did not know the worst premiere.”

One of the analysts of another Russia, on the contrary, predicted in an interview with a newspaper correspondent that Tymoshenko may now well go towards Vladimir Putin. “She can even proclaim a refusal to join NATO, and the rest of Putin does not particularly bother,” the expert believes. “On some issues, Tymoshenko will better agree with Putin than Yanukovych, because she can mentally play along with him, which Yanukovych does not know how to do at all.”

Nationalization without annexation and indemnity

The change in the political course that awaits Ukraine in the event of the victory of BUT in the elections to the Verkhovna Rada will inevitably affect the economic course of the country. Experts joke that Yulia Tymoshenko’s premiership means one thing for the Ukrainian economy: the Cabinet of Ministers will be endowed even with the powers that he is deprived of. Obviously, in the first place a number of very powerful populist steps will be taken, the main of which will be nationalization.

Yulia Tymoshenko has repeatedly expressed her position regarding a number of enterprises, which, in her opinion, would be nice to return to state property. In particular, literally on the night after the elections, she stated that the fate of the Dnepranergo company, recently acquired by the largest Ukrainian billionaire Rinat Akhmetov from the State Property Fund, will be decided by the court. At the same time, she suggested that the company could again become state.

As political analyst Andrei Obara said in an interview with Gazeta, "the fight against oligarchs is the mainstream of Tymoshenko, and, of course, this line will continue." During the pre -election campaign, the leader BYUT repeatedly told the story of how on September 1, parents give their children portfolios and notebooks, and Mr. Akhmetov gave the son of Dnepranergo to his son. "Obviously, after the victory, the fight against Akhmetov will become one of the first and one of the most high -profile processes," the political scientist believes.

In addition to the assets of Rinat Akhmetov, who supports the main competitor BYuT - the Party of Regions, reprivatization may be assessed by another opponent Tymoshenko - Viktor Pinchuk. Being a son -in -law Leonid Kuchma and occupying a third line in the list of Ukrainian billionaires, according to Tymoshenko, he is a representative of the “criminal family”. The revision of privatization is most likely to affect the ferroalloy plants, and Ukrsotsbank, and the Oranta insurance company, and the Lugansk D andterish Building Plant. At the same time, notes an expert close to the BUT election headquarters, as in the case of Dnepranergo, the decision will be made by courts, not a cabinet of ministers. So Yulia Tymoshenko will be pure before the West and the liberal public.

It is the least to fear any attacks from the state to foreign entrepreneurs working in Ukraine, in particular, the steel magnate of Lakshmi Mittalu, who bought Krivorozhstal a couple of years ago. The fact is that opponents of Tymoshenko fought against the sale of a steel enterprise at one time. The fact that the company was eventually sold, the head of BYUT considers one of his largest achievements.

For & hooves AG

Most experts expect serious transformations in the gas industry. Tymoshenko repeatedly sharply criticized the current gas supply scheme to Ukraine and required either a review or a thorough revision of suppliers. “Tymoshenko is not in vain called a gas princess. If she again becomes the prime minister, the gas will be the sphere for which she will take it first of all, ”Andrei Okara is sure.

At the same time, some experts note that the breakdown of the agreement with Rosukrenergo (Rue) will entail not only serious penalties, but also significant economic consequences. First of all, we are talking about the future price of supplies. In 2007, the cost of a gas cocktail of Central Asian origin supplied by the Ukrgaz-Energo Rue was $ 130 for 1 thousand cubic meters. “What will be the price of 2008 will be decided during the negotiations. Therefore, it all depends on who comes to the government, ”Viktor Chernomyrdin, the Russian ambassador to Ukraine the other day. Sources in Gazprom also confirm the relationship between gas prices with the composition of the future government. According to unofficial information, changes in the Cabinet of Ministers are inflated by gas price to $ 230 per 1 thousand cubic meters.

At the same time, the expert community believes that hints of economic sanctions from Russia are not covered by personal antipathies of the head of BET. “Yulia Tymoshenko has a very extensive experience in communication both with Gazprom itself and with Russian officials who oversee energy policy. At the same time, Alexei Ivchenko, who guides Naftogaz, and Yuri Boyko, who today oversees energy interaction with Russia, provoke equal hatred in Julia Vladimirovna. Therefore, the type of relationship, today established in the gas sphere, will be changed radically. Rosukrenergo may remain either horns and legs, or horns and hooves, ”Andrei Okara is sure.

According to the source of the “newspaper” at the BUT election headquarters, one should expect not so much a revision of the current scenario of gas supplies as the change of company-operator. “The gas trading scheme will be preserved. It will only be about the replacement of Rosukrenergo, which is controlled by Tymoshenko’s opponents, a operator configured to it at least loyally, ”the political scientist said. According to him, it is possible that the new company will be an iter. “Tymoshenko was always close to this company and, on the eve of her resignation, in September 2005 lobbied for her as the main authorized gas merchant,” the expert says, noting that “good relations”, formed by the chairman of the board of directors of Igor Igor Makarov with the current president of Turkmenistan Berdymukhammedov, may become a decisive The factor when making a decision on the breakdown of the agreement with Rue.

Note that in Rosukrenergo so far remain calm. “We are not engaged in politics, we are engaged in business,” the company’s press secretary Andrei Knutov told the newspaper correspondent. According to him, the Ukrainian authorities cannot have complaints about the company's work, and therefore grounds for breaking agreements.

Nevertheless, some experts believe that the recent personnel permits in the company (the co -director Oleg Palchikov, representing the interests of the Ukrainian beneficiaries) may indicate that the Swiss trader is already preparing for a future resignation. According to some media outlets, Oleg Palchikov will create a new trading structure for gas supplies to Ukraine.

Inflation as a payment for populism

Experts note that in general, the uniqueness of the economic situation in Ukraine will be that, unlike Russia, it will be extremely free to work here to foreign investors. This is due to the fact that foreign businessmen, unlike Ukrainian, do not represent a political threat to Yulia Tymoshenko. It turns out that the investment climate with the advent of But in the Verkhovna Rada will only win.

Thanks to some populist steps, ordinary citizens will partly win. Experts are convinced that the moratorium on the sale of agricultural land will be extended. In addition, Tymoshenko is likely to implement the program for repaying deposits in Sberbank. According to analysts, this will require about six to seven years to this. At the same time, significant state resources will be involved, including a printing press, which, of course, will ultimately cause certain inflationary consequences.

What will happen to Ukraine now?

Anatoly Lysenko, President of the International Academy of Television and Radio:

The elections will pass, the fever will subside, and calmness in Ukraine depends on how we behave ourselves. Now this young state, according to Lenin, is “childhood disease of the leftist”, and, perhaps, it is correct and much more. But everything will pass, but we have nowhere to go, because the neighbors do not change. If in Ukraine it will be calm, then friendship will come by itself, it is not installed directively. I myself in Vinnitsa was born, and Ukraine is a country in which I really worry me, and I always look forward to the news from there. All the same, we can say that all of their own there. After all, we have been together for so many years.

Sergey Glazyev, State Duma deputy (faction "Fair Russia - Homeland"), Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences:

I myself am from Zaporozhye, I am there and often call up with relatives, so aware of the situation. Or, recalling the Constitution of his country, which provides for its non -block status and preservation of sovereignty, the orange camp of considerations of pragmatism and national interests of Ukraine will abandon some of the zapalno ideas imposed by the West: joining the European Union, which is unrealistic, and membership in NATO, which is harmful. And then we have a chance of further joint development and cooperation. This is especially beneficial to Ukraine: calculations show that the Ukrainian economy from the Customs Union with Russia wins twice as much as the Russian one. Either the orange will follow their American cartridges, and then Ukraine is waiting for the deepest socio-economic disaster associated with a sharp deterioration in payment balance, the devaluation of the national currency, an increase in at least half the cost of life and a sharp increase in unemployment. And what will be the way out of the catastrophic position is now difficult to say. But the new government is not formed, and we cannot predict the development of events.

Lev Leshchenko, People's Artist of Russia:

Nothing worthwhile, there is no consent. One person should be responsible for everything - both in the country and in the house - say, Yanukovych. He is an industrialist and knows how to establish the economy. In general, in such countries, in my opinion, there should not be a presidential rule. It should be parliamentary republics, and at the head - pre -people or, as it is now called. But so far there will only be a split, and these two diametrically opposite parties will defend their positions. The main thing is that this does not grow into a new round of revolutions. All this is sad, because I really do not want to move away from the fraternal republics. I can’t say that in the situation in Ukraine it is the American or some kind of Western influence, but the fact that a certain algorithm is laid out of the outside is absolutely clear to me. True, some forces in Ukraine, especially the Western, are always west and gravators. And still, the leaders of the country need to live the concerns of their ordinary citizens. But no one will think about the people until a healthy environment is being improved.

My roots are in the Sumy region, and I have a lot of relatives there. I know my pedigree since 1820, and, for example, my grandfather and great -grandfather moved from the White Church to Kharkov, then to Kursk, and then to Ukraine again. That is, there was a natural life, and there were no borders. And for a year, being a preschooler, I lived in the village in Ukraine. I still have the most amazing impressions of the cordiality of ordinary people. Then there was no conversation, they say, the Russian boy came to Ukraine, because everyone lived with one family.

Mikhail Margelov, Chairman of the Federation Council Committee on International Affairs:

There will be a search for consent. As Ostap Bender taught, consent is the product when non -resistance of two sides. The non -resistance of Yanukovych and Tymoshenko is difficult to achieve the goal. Therefore, consent will be difficult to achieve.

How voters were distributed	%
Party of regions	32.94
Blok Yulia Tymoshenko	31.65
<< Our Ukraine - People's Self -Defense >>	14.77
Communist Party of Ukraine	5.26
Litvin block	3.99
Socialist Party	3.04
Against everyone	2.67

According to the data at 20.00 in Moscow, the Central Election Commission of Ukraine processed 85.65% of the ballots. According to the news agency "Interfax-Ukraine", the Blok Yulia Tymoshenko leads in 16 regions of the country, the Party of Regions prevailed in 10 regions.

01.10.2007 / Taras Burnos, Gennady Savchenko / Kyiv, Anastasia Novikova, Evlalia Samedova, Oksana Gavshina; The survey was prepared by Alexander Sargin Material published in the newspaper No. 183 dated 02.10.2007.