Zero growth

The Ministry of Economic Development and Trade of Russia has trained Gref to Metallurgists "The Forecast of Socio-Economic Development of the Russian Federation until 2005". According to this document, the annual production growth in metallurgy will be 1.5-2%. But even such low rates of development are possible only on condition that the consumption of metal products in the domestic market will increase.

This year, according to the forecasts of the Ministry of Economic Development, the volume of steel production and rental will grow by only 1%in Russia. Approximately the same pace of output awaits the steel industry in subsequent years - until 2005. Nevertheless, according to preliminary calculations contained in the program of restructuring the metallurgical industry, the volume of production should increase by 15-20%compared to 2002. As the representatives of the ministry explain, this will be possible to achieve in two ways: the modernization of production capacities and the growth of metal consumption in the domestic market.

Everything is quiet in the domestic market

The metallurgists themselves no longer associate their future unambiguously with foreign markets. “From 1992 to 2001, we have almost doubled the experience of how we from 1992 to 2001 - from 12.5 to 24.5 million tons, will not be possible,” said a representative of one of the largest Russian companies. “Therefore, it remains only to hope for Russian consumers.” However, there are also difficulties in the domestic market: the level of consumption this year is unlikely to exceed 5%.

So far, only shipbuilders and machine builders increase metal purchases. At the same time, the demand for ship steel is clearly pronounced seasonal. In the forecast of the ministry, the main reason is by no means high growth rate of metal consumption in Russia is called the “extremely slight renewal of fixed assets in almost all sectors of the domestic economy”.

Responsible for growth

According to the forecasts of German Gref, in 2002, Russian metallurgists will produce 47.5 million tons of rental. And in 2005 - only a little more: about 48-49 million tons. According to analysts, there is no need to expect at least any significant production growth at all. “There is certainly a tendency to some increase in the demand for metal rolling in the domestic market,” said Vasily Nikolaev, analyst at Troika Troika Dialog. - However, all these forecasts come down to the fact that the economy is generally waiting for and whether there will be economic growth in Russia in general. As for the Ministry of Economic Development, in any case it will talk about the growth of production, because, in fact, it is responsible for it. ” According to the analyst IK 'Prospekt' Nikolai Ivanov, there are still chances:

'I am not waiting for any surprises from machine -builders who suddenly take and increase the purchases of metal. Another thing is that the demand for metal structures in the construction industry is growing steadily. Since the construction only unfolds and will grow in the regions, it makes sense to talk about the growth of consumption of metal products in a much larger volume than 5%.

REFERENCE

In 2001, 47.1 million tons of rental were produced in Russia, and the smelting of steel amounted to about 58 million tons. More than half of Russian metal (about 25 million tons) is supplied to foreign markets.

08/15/2002 / Dmitry Ponomarev