Assessment for the client

Banks control risks using scoring the main way to manage credit risks remains the creation of general principles for their evaluation and analysis. Moreover, the methodology should be as detailed as possible as possible. Of course, a universal technique that can approach any business does not exist. You can only talk about general -scale methods of analysis of information. For example, in one of the rapidly developing sectors of the Russian financial market - consumer lending - the most relevant is the banks of their potential bore customers.

In world practice, there are two main methods for assessing the risk of lending: the subjective conclusion of experts or credit inspectors and automated scoring systems. If the first methodology does not raise questions, then on what principles scoring works - it remains incomprehensible to most of the non -specialists.

Scoring is called a certain “mathematical or statistical model”, with the help of which the bank determines the likelihood that the potential borrower will return the loan on time.

Skoring is mainly used in lending to individuals. Actually, it has a whole system of express credits. In the most simplified form, this model represents the sum of certain characteristics of the client: gender, age, marital status, income, place of work and others. The higher the total amount, the higher the reliability of the client is considered. Then the indicator of each client is compared with the “threshold value”. According to experts, this threshold is a break -in line and is calculated from the relationship, how much bona fide customers need on average in order to compensate for losses from one unscrupulous debtor. For those customers who have an indicator exceeds the threshold value, the loan is issued. For those who are below, no. However, the scoring system is constantly developing and banks can introduce not one, but several threshold values on which the loan amount depends, its term and interest rate.

Russia has its own path

Despite the fact that foreign scoring systems have a story in several decades (the first system appeared in the 40s), in Russia they took root with difficulty. Techniques running out in the West did not work in our country. “Indeed, if for Russia to use a scoring card used to assess the creditworthiness of the borrower from the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, then this card will most likely be inoperative due to the non-consumption of Russian factors. We are talking, for example, about things such as the form of confirmation of income, the form of organization of the employer and other factors characteristic only for our country, ”says Dmitry Spryskov, head of the market risks of the International Moscow Bank.

Russian features are associated with the specifics of the economy: its increased dependence on raw materials, still a significant share of gray revenue schemes. “There are two key differences between Russian and Western scoring systems. The first is that in the West information about the credit history of the borrower, its solvency banks receive from credit bureaus. While this system is just starting to work with us, ”says Natalia Khakhalina, deputy director of the department of retail banking products. In her opinion, in order for the activities of our credit bureau to become effective, it will take another year or two.

The second difference is the amount of information about the income and solvency of the borrower. “In the West there is a clear full -fledged statistics on income of any categories, there is an understanding of how wages will grow. It is more difficult for us to determine both the level of income and the prospects for their change, ”continues Natalia Hakhalina.

To whom to give?

According to Yevgeny Zaitsev, an expert on the Finam investment company, banks are trying to keep their scoring models a secret. “No one talks about their model for assessing risks and making a decision on issuing loans,” he says. It is no accident that the refusal to the client is not accompanied by any explanations. However, in the West, there are still some general restrictions. So, in the United States in 1974, a law was adopted that forbidden to refuse to issue a loan due to race, skin color, national origin, religion and even such characteristics as a client received consumer rights to defend them. And in the UK, the legislation allows restrictions on age and family position, but prohibits refusing a loan on the basis of disability.

What is guided by domestic banks is incomprehensible. For example, it is believed that one of the main arguments for obtaining a loan is the confirmed white income of the client. The higher it is, the greater the chances of a loan. However, in the sector of express credit, this rule does not always act. Often, banks refuse wealthy customers, realizing that they will most likely pay off their loan ahead of schedule, which means that the bank will not be able to earn on them. According to bank employees who are actively involved in express crediting, the ideal candidate for a loan is the employee of the state-owned enterprise with "income not too much, but stable." “We know the specifics of the Russian retail lending market and those exclusively Russian characteristics that can affect the return of the loan and the probability of the client’s default. Therefore, we initially followed the way that we will build a scoring model ourselves, ”says Dmitry Spryskov. “Our experience shows that in the West much greater importance is given to quantitative models, analyzing a significant amount of data using powerful information systems. In Russia, many players are content with simple models, in some cases only two or three factors are taken into account. In addition, the subjectivity of individual managers plays an important role, which is minimized in the West, ”says Evgeny Zaitsev.

Despite the fact that scoring was originally created to evaluate credit risks, now it is more wider in other areas, for example, in marketing to determine the target audience for a particular product, when evaluating the customer’s loyalty to the organization, and even when working with debtors, scoring helps to determine which way of influence will be the most effective and convince the client to repay the debt.

03.10.2006 / Evgeny Mazin, Lena Tikhomirova, the material was published in the newspaper No. 180 dated 04.10.2006.