Two years before the crisis

The economy gets out of the government’s control of the macroeconomic indicators of Russia continues to surprise. On Thursday, Rosstat published another report according to which the effect of a warm winter, which filed the Russian industry, has been exhausted, and such fantastic growth rates, as in the first three months of 2007, should no longer be expected from it. In April, production growth has already been reduced by half. Inflation in the first quarter was gaining momentum in the first quarter. In April 2007, it was higher than in April 2006. For the government, this may be the first call: the economy ceases to obey officials.

Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin, speaking on Wednesday with a lecture at the Higher School of Economics, warned: "Russia is wasting the potential to reduce inflation obtained in the first quarter." The subtext of his warning: the government was happy to have low prices of prices, and an unreasonable economic policy can destroy all the successes of the beginning of the year. The Ministry of Finance does not exclude that inflation at the end of the year will be higher than the 8%promised by the government. "With such a pace of embezzlement of budget money, strengthening the ruble and the influx of speculative capital, we can get a two -digit number again," the source of the "newspaper" in the Ministry of Finance suggests. For the ministry, there is no surprise to inflation of 11-12%, which is primarily due to monetary factors, that is, the illiterate actions of the government and the Central Bank.

Creeps-flying inflation

The Minister of Finance Alexei Kudrin also spoke about this, speaking in the Higher School of Economics. "The main reason for the growth in inflation is the monetary factor, this is a fairly high basic inflation in 2006-2007." However, this position has opponents. For example, State Duma deputy Sergei Glazyev claims: "Inflation in Russia is non -humorous: the growth of the money mass increases the pace, and the consumer price index is reduced." In his opinion, the fault of everything, first of all, the growth of tariffs for the services of natural monopolies, ahead of the predicted inflation. Another inflationary factor, from his point of view, is the excessive bureaucraticism of the economy and even opmust value added tax.

In the Ministry of Finance, they do not agree with this: "Non-monetary factors do not play a big role. If only because Gazprom tariffs, RAO UES and housing and communal services are growing no more than once a year and prices increase only once at the beginning of the year."

However, according to the observation of the head of the Kudrin department, inflation is usually accelerated by the second six months. The exception is only two summer months, when the prices of fruit and vegetable products are reduced in the crop.

All roads lead to devaluation

In any case, the government proceed from the fact that prices in Russia are rising due to excess money. This excess will be removed by the Central Bank, however, the struggle of the Central Bank with inflation causes an unpredictable strengthening of the ruble. In monetary policy for 2007 and 2008, inflation indicators are rigidly fixed, however, the forecast of strengthening the national currency is from 0 to 10%. Translated from the bureaucratic language, this means that the Central Bank does not know how the ruble will strengthen, and are not responsible for negative consequences.

Meanwhile, strengthening the ruble causes an influx of capital. It is profitable for foreigners to invest in Russia until the dollar is getting cheaper here. And this, in turn, leads to a repetition of the situation before the 1998 crisis. Not in the sense of a global default (he is not yet threatened with Russia), but in the sense of unpredictable consequences. Speculative capital migrates, guided by expectations. In anticipation of strengthening the ruble to Russia, currency is imported, which makes the ruble even stronger. The next link - even more currency flies to the stronger ruble, and the government no longer controls the course policy. When there are too many currencies, and the course prospects of the ruble can be rethought, investors can panic. For example, sharply take out super -fluid assets from Russia. And then the ruble will drop sharply. In any case, it is already impossible to predict the consequences of excessive strengthening. It is only clear that little will depend on the government.

The growing corporate debt of state -owned companies also burden the situation. Rosneft, Gazprom loans, Russian Railways and RAO UES, taken in foreign markets, are foreign currency. Their total volume has already exceeded $ 300 billion. In the Ministry of Finance, this figure is considered critical. In the case of devaluation of the ruble of state -owned companies, they will not be able to pay on loans. And it will be their default, which may well spread to the state.

Industrial fall

However, everything can go according to a different scenario. The Central Bank will redeem the currency that flowing into Russia and in response to the reduction of the dollar will turn on the printing press. This, however, contradicts the declared "foundations of monetary policy", but in an extreme situation (namely, this situation is already developing - the gold and foreign exchange reserves are growing too quickly) can happen anything. Then large -scale inflation will return to the country. It is possible that you will have to forget not only about the unambiguous consumer price index, but even about 20%inflation. The ruble will begin to weaken sharply, from a social point of view, this will lead to shock. But the industry will receive additional incentives. Now the opposite is true. While the ruble is strengthened, this is beneficial to citizens receiving salaries in rubles and having a loan in foreign currency. “But for industry, strengthening the ruble and the unwillingness of the Central Bank to see this problem create difficult conditions - imports are much more competitive,” says Sergey Belyakov, deputy chairman of the RSPP committee on budgetary and tax policy.

The government to the fact that the domestic producer is put in unequal conditions with imports, the Olympic is calm. According to the calculations of the director of the macroeconomic forecasting department of Mart Andrei Klepach, the strengthening of the ruble will still end in two to three years. When the wrapping of the balance of the trade balance occurs, the volume of imports will catch up with the volume of exports. In these conditions, the Central Bank will no longer need to sterilize the currency - the outflow of capital from the country will begin. And the ruble will lose weight again.

Industry devaluation will no longer be able to help - by that time it simply will not be. The trend is visible now: only objectively protected from competition with the import of the industry is shown growth. For example, construction. Against the backdrop of warm winter, the construction eliminated the total industrial production index at 8%. In Mart, a new round of growth was delighted. However, all of April was put up in places: the growth of construction volumes entered the schedule, and the growth of industrial production fell to 4.6%that had already become familiar in recent years. In the future, it can only contract.

Is the strengthening ruble beneficial to you?

Oksana Dmitrieva, Doctor of Economics, Professor, Member of the Party "Development of Entrepreneurship", member of the State Duma committee on budget and taxes:

As an economist, I look at this professionally, and not based on personal interests. The strengthening ruble is unprofitable to domestic production. Its strengthening is anti -stimulus in relation to economic growth and, by the way, anti -stimulus in relation to structural shift in the direction of processing industries, which we cannot carry out in any way. So this is a brake for the economy.

Ruslan Khasbulatov, Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Head of the Department of the World Economy of the Plekhanov Academy:

This is too little a question to talk about all Gref's policy. Strengthening the ruble in relation to the dollar and the euro means increasing prices that grow faster than salary and pension.

When my pension and salary, without devaluation, give me the opportunity to live with dignity, this is the strengthening of the ruble. And due to the fact that our market of goods and services is absolutely unregulated, we have not objective inflation, but subjective.

I spoke back in 1992-1993, when all the dogs were lowered to me that in the classic market, as in the USA, France, England and Japan, there are no unregulated goods and services. I have been engaged in market economy for 30 years. Try to go beyond and appoint some price for your product. A commission will come right there and say: this is your unscrupulous profit and unscrupulous competition. And that's it - you will fly right away! They will take a license and set such a fine that you will become bankrupt.

And to an ordinary person, the strengthening of the ruble, that weakening. Prices are rising, and this Gref does not mean.

Mikhail Delyagin, Director of the Institute of Problems of Globalization:

Personally, he is unprofitable for me. Many people who pay for my consultations think in dollars. And it is clear when they pay rubles, but at the Central Bank rate, the payment is becoming less and less. On the other hand, I, as a normal person, pay my employees in rubles and has long untied this business from the dollar. It turns out that I earn less, but I pay more.

And yet. I live in Moscow and, like many Muscovites, I buy significantly more imported goods than most Russians. And these goods are getting more expensive as the ruble strengthens.

As for the fact that our ruble strengthening helps to reduce inflation ... Theoretically, the main cause of inflation is the total and mass abuse of the monopoly position with which the Ministry of Economic Development does not fight. Yes, and the services subordinate to him like the FAS are fighting weakly. There is such a situation that the strengthening of the ruble is a little restrained by the increase in prices. But this is completely inconspicuous against the background of the invalid increase in prices, which is provoked by mass abuse of the monopoly position.

Igor Jurgens, Vice President of the RSPP:

A strengthening ruble is a blow to a batch of export and, accordingly, in many mining industries, which are so far a kind of airbag. But, on the other hand, the strengthening ruble is a gift from the import of import. Indeed, during the restructuring of industry, including when importing expensive and high -tech equipment, this is very important.

Therefore, I am philosophical about this issue. Moreover, on the horizon, planning in a couple of years, and the ruble can both strengthen and fall. Estimates of various kinds of economists, depending on the situation, vary from 15 to 30 rubles per dollar in the future. Upon receipt of such a number of dollars to the country, strengthening the ruble is one of the powerful ways to curb inflation. But besides inflation, there is what I said above. And I agree with Gref.

05/17/2007 / Andrey Lavrov, the survey was prepared by Alexander Sargin Material published in the "newspaper" No. 88 dated 05/18/2007.