To the bottom!

Count the waves - from the same row, what to count the raven, if we are talking about marine tide. A completely different matter of the wave of crisis. Anyone who has taken them to take them is guaranteed to become a number of crisisologists and even crisis colleagues. But everyone counts in their own way.

So far, representatives of the financial authorities are becoming unfortunate combinations.

Let me remind you: on March 23, Alexei Kudrin warned of the impending second wave of the banking crisis. On April 3, Sergei Ignatiev publicly did not agree with him. In his opinion, the worst behind, with a crisis, it is time to carefully say goodbye, ahead of the economic growth. On April 6, Alexander Turbanov, CEO of the State Corporation State Corporation, again saw the ghost of the second wave of crisis. True, he is stipulated that it will be lower than the first.

That's what is curious. New waves, according to the counters, are threatened to roll exclusively on banks. They are associated with non -return of loans. As if loans on market rates can be returned in principle. An false impression arises that banks are the most affected and most unprotected part of the economy. No doubt, it was they who, together with the institutions of the financial market, took the first blow to the then global financial crisis. And they did not become a Brest fortress. The good thing that they survived, having received large -scale emergency assistance from the state, is bad that the crisis broke into the open spaces of the Russian economy. It is fundamentally important that since then the world crisis, continuing to be financial, has become a full -length economic crisis. Moreover, in Russia.

Russian intermediate results are as follows: in January, in January, in the annual calculus, according to Rosstat, it fell by 16%, in February - by 13.2%. I don’t know where the dive into the crisis was so deep. And the fact that the pace of the ongoing immersion is slightly reduced is no consolation.

So it turns out: some fall into the crisis, and the waves of the crisis are considered by others. But on April 7, the head of the Russian Railways OJSC Vladimir Yakunin spoke. “We are only at the beginning of the crisis, and we must wait for the best and more stable indicators” - this is how he commented on a slowdown in the fall of transportation (in March, railway transportation in Russia fell by 15.8% compared with 26% in February and 32% in January). “We have not yet passed the middle point of the crisis,” the head of the Russian Railways believes.

In principle, the fact that the current rate of falling transportation is two times lower than the January indicator, it is worth paying attention. But Yakunin is right. With such statistics, it would already be premature to look at the crisis, as Ignatiev advises, as Ignatiev advises. There is an old, well -known rule: in an unclear situation, we must hope for the best, but prepare for the worst. The worst in the Russian economy is not behind, if it is around, then this is the best.

The real sector is not up to the waves. To the bottom.

04/07/2009 The material was published in the "newspaper" No. 61 dated 08.04.2009.