Disputes in the dark

The Ministry of Industry and Trade, METARO and Gazprom diverging in the views on the electric worshiping long -term development plan of the Russian electric power industry is almost ready. It remains to coordinate only technical details to relevant departments. This was announced on Thursday after a meeting of the Government by the head of the Ministry of Industry, Viktor Khristenko, referring to the finalization of the general scheme for the placement of energy facilities until 2020. According to him, the scheme will be included in the government over the next two weeks and will be approved before the end of the year. Nevertheless, gas is not enough gas.

The debate of forecasters

As it turned out, the heinsham has already been agreed with almost all interested parties, even with a “national treasure”. However, oddly enough, the Ministry of Economic Development has not put its visa on the document. The point of inconsistency with the department of Viktor Khristenko is in the difference in the forecasts of electricity consumption in 2015. The Ministry of Industry and Trade insists on 1426 billion kWh per year, and the mayors of 1380 billion. For comparison, now the energy consumption is almost 1000 billion kWh. The difference of only 3% turned out to be fundamental.

The METRAR rests on the fact that the Russian economy will be much more energy -efficient than the Ministry of Industry and Energy predicts. According to Mart, Russian enterprises will learn to rationally spend electricity, which will lead to a less high growth rate of consumption. Such a conclusion is not accidental - in its forecast of the socio -economic development of the economy until 2020, the Elvira Nabiullina’s agency focuses on an innovative script. In fact, the MECTR suggests that the construction of about 8 GW of energy can be excluded from the Secretary General. However, the fact that further - in 2020 - the forecasts of both ministries converge for 1700 billion kWh, that is, apparently, the forecasts of both ministries will still have to be built, but several years later.

In the Ministry of Industry, Mart's criticism is perceived calmly. According to Khristenko, it is still necessary to build power plants, since they are designed to provide the economy with electricity during peak load hours. “For example, if it is a winter frosty day, and the country is on the rise,” Khristenko explained on his fingers. Nevertheless, if the forecast of Mart is still justified, in the Ministry of Industry, this will only be happy for this. “If energy efficiency will grow faster than we think, then you can get out of operation outdated capacities,” said the deputy head of the Ministry of Industry Andrei Dementyev. “The task of the reform is to make everyone forget about the electric power industry,” he adds. Nevertheless, even according to the plans of the Ministry of Industry, to forget about the energy deficit will be completely possible only in 2010.

Gas is not enough for everyone

But not everything is as simple with the Secretary General, as officials try to prove it. The Ministry of Industry and Environment still has an unresolved main problem of placing energy facilities - gas. Recall that it was the dissatisfaction of Gazprom by the Secretary Gensham that became one of the reasons why its adoption was delayed for almost six months. As a result, at the end of the summer it was announced that 20 planned power plants (according to the Secretary General) would work not on gas, but on coal. But besides this, even some of the already constructed capacities may be without fuel.

“Disagreements with Gazprom concern five objects, and are associated with both gas volumes and the terms of its supply,” Viktor Khristenko said on Thursday. In the Interregiongaz, the Gazeta correspondent was only able to confirm that the terms and volumes of gas supply to the Kirishi State Enterprise (the Leningrad Region, the installed capacity of the station - 2.1 GWs) and the Kostroma GRES (3.6 GW) were not agreed. Apparently, the problem with gas supplies to the second block of the North -Western TPP (power is 450 MW) has not yet been resolved. The Interregiongaz explained that the disagreements of the Secretary General are associated with “complex reasons”. However, it is clear that the most important of them is a lack of gas.

Here you can find a forecast compromise. Thanks to Gazprom, now there is no need to exclude new objects (8 GW) from the plans for the construction of energy facilities: about the same amount of Gigavatt of the already built stations will be idle without fuel.

It turned out that Gazprom thinks in unison with Mart and proposes, in turn, more economically to expend energy to power plants themselves, and then demand the same from consumers of electricity. To solve the problem “It is possible by entering more efficient equipment while maintaining the use of gas within the framework of issued limits,” the Interregiongaz believes.

Nevertheless, the Gensham with reservations will nevertheless accept. According to Andrei Dementyev, it will be possible to make possible corrections to the document already in a working order, it will be adjusted every three years. And if necessary, it will be possible to make amendments to the investment program of Gazprom, unless, of course, the government allows this.

What economic reform would you entrust the political party in power?

Vyacheslav Glazychev / Chairman of the Commission of the Public Chamber on Regional Development and Local Self -Government, Doctor of Art History

There are three fundamental things. Firstly, under the system, when, in addition to the presidential administration and the governors approved by meetings, the party controls the regions, the “40 to 60” proportion does not comply with the needs. Therefore, for starters, it is necessary, at least, to align the relationship of the center and regions. Secondly, I always believed that VAT is generally imperfect, and in our conditions it becomes too corrupt agent. From this point of view, a much more effective means is sales tax. It is necessary to do everything as it was at the end of the Gorbachev era, when the amount of tax was printed for each check. This allows you to deliberately differentiate it as primarily a local tax - after all, they earn not everywhere, but spend everywhere. At the same time, the underfinance of the 131st law is obvious to absolutely everyone, including the president. Finally, thirdly, it is worthwhile to indicate the moment, however, it is not necessary to do this for this second, the transition from a flat tax scale to a reasonably progressive one-if we talk about taxes on individuals.

Evgeny Gontmamer / Head of the Center for Social Policy of the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Doctor of Economics

I would entrust her to the optimization of the number of state employees. Let the party in power decide the fate of 15 million people who work in this area. Should there be 15 million, and maybe 20 or 10 million? How to evaluate the results of their work? What should these people have a real salary? And where, finally, to get money for it? All this is very subtle and professional work.

Oganes Oganyan / Chairman of the Federation Council Committee on Economic Policy, Entrepreneurship and Property, Doctor of Technical Sciences

No, because I am a member of another party. We have our own economic program. Why should I promote the party in power?

Irina Rukina / Chief Researcher IREI, Doctor of Economics, Member of the Presidium of RAEN

I would start with the return of a 50 percent investment benefit that would go to update the fixed assets of enterprises. After all, we are always talking about reforming industry, that we need to get off the oil needle, but without installing the latest equipment, conversations are meaningless. Further, I would entrust the party in the authorities of the power related to energy. Since the 1930s, we have been operating such a thing as “installed capacities”. When the company saves electricity, it does not remain saving, but on the contrary it is punished. When the enterprise makes an overspending, it is also punished. To get away from this, the power engineers introduced the so -called double tariffs. However, in fact, these are penalties that are obviously great for small and medium -sized businesses. In order to stimulate the reform of the energy conservation, and this is the most innovative issue, it is necessary to cancel the above concept: savings must be encouraged, part of it should remain the company for development - I recall, somewhere by 2020 about 20 GW of electricity will not be enough. The third question is due to the fact that small and medium -sized businesses are not protected from numerous inspections: there is a serious pressure of tax and law enforcement agencies. Entrepreneurs today must prove that they are not to blame for anything. But this should not be.

Victor Danilov-Danilian / Director of the Institute of Water Problems of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Doctor of Economics

No, because there is no one to deal with serious economic issues. I do not know a single figure of this party to whom I could entrust something.

11/01/2007 / Evgeny Belyakov, the survey was prepared by Alexei Smirnov, the material was published in the "newspaper" No. 206 dated 02.11.2007.