The Central Bank "devoted" bets

A decrease in the refinancing rate of the Central Bank will inevitably lead to a decrease in deposits in deposits in September, the First Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank, Alexei Ulyukaev, promised to reduce the refinancing rate if inflation is 10% following the results of this year. However, even then it was clear that the increase in prices by the end of the year in any case would exceed this value, and therefore everyone relaxed. However, at the end of last week, the Central Bank suddenly decided to reduce the rate from 13 to 12%. For bankers, the decision of the financial regulator was a complete surprise, and now they are in a hurry preparing to reduce deposits.

The Bank of Russia made the decision to reduce the refinancing rate from 13 to 12% last Friday, and today, December 26, it comes into force. This is the first change in the rate over the past year and a half - the previous decline occurred in June 2004.

The fact that the Central Bank can reduce the rate was talked at the beginning of the year. This would be logical: the inflation forecast in the budget at the level of 8.5% allowed the financial regulator to lower the rate by at least 1%. However, reality did not want to comply with budget standards in any way, and therefore most experts have already agreed in the opinion that a decrease in the rate this year was not expected. This idea was confirmed in September and the deputy chairman of the Central Bank, Alexei Ulyukaev, saying that the regulator will raise the rate in case of holding inflation within 10%.

However, apparently, some of its reasons forced the Russian Bank to be raised by the end of the year, despite the failure to fulfill the forecast for inflation. Perhaps in this way the Central Bank is trying to slow down the traditional surge in inflation in the winter-spring period.

Tax press

The impact of the refinancing rate on the Russian economy is minimized due to the fact that the refinancing mechanism (lending to the banking system by the central bank) does not work. However, one segment of the financial market responds to a reduction in the rates of the rate - rates on bank deposits are inevitably reduced.

Despite the fact that there is practically no real refinancing (i.e., banks cannot occupy cheaper financial resources from the Central Bank), the base rate directly affects deposit rates. The mechanism of this influence is spelled out in the Tax Code.

According to the Russian tax legislation, if the interest rate on the deposit is higher than the refinancing rate, then the amount of excess is taxed on individual income, and the tax rate will not all be known 13%, but 35%. Thus, the state is trying to limit the possibility of citizens to receive unreasonable superpathies.

Bets are already lower

However, in many banks, deposits rates are at a level significantly lower than the refinancing rate. This is especially true for large banks, which, due to their relative reliability, usually do not give customers more than 10% per annum. There is a certain economic logic in this - large Russian financial structures have the opportunity to occupy in international markets at 6-8%. What is the point of paying the depositors more?

On the other hand, smaller banks are forced to hold bets as close as possible to the refinancing rate. Accordingly, they will be forced to reduce bets. They will be followed by large players - again, due to their hypothetical reliability, they can attract customers at a lower percentage.

To say how much the bets will decrease is still difficult. For most bankers, the decision of the Central Bank was a complete surprise. The Chairman of the Board of the Russian Development Bank, Sergei Ivanov, told Gazeta that “apparently, it would be necessary to reduce the betting bet following the Central Bank, although, frankly, we are more guided by the market in this matter.” “Unfortunately, the Bank of Russia accounting rate is not a market indicator, but rather an illustrative factor in our economy,” he said. “But given how many inconvenience to our customers all these tax deductions will be delivered, we will most likely lower it.”

Are Russian banks becoming more reliable?

Anatoly Aksakov / Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Credit Organizations and Financial Markets:

"Of course, after the introduction of the deposit insurance system (SSV), our banking system became much more reliable and transparent, especially since joining the system was not so simple. The proof of this is the behavior of banks that have not entered the system. The same banks that have not yet been accepted into the system are still trying to become its participants."

Vitaly Vantsev / First Deputy CEO of OJSC "Vnukovo Airport":

"It is difficult for me to talk about the reliability of banks. I work in a completely different field. But, in my opinion, from a client point of view, our banks have certainly become more reliable. Some of them have become even super -readgeon. I think this is the first ten. However, I have already chosen Sberbank for myself and for my enterprise."

Anna Kamenkova / Actress:

"To my great regret, I have no relations with banks and therefore I can’t judge if they became more reliable. Although, of course, I really wanted the banks in our country to be as reliable as possible. Suddenly I still have to deal with them?"

Dmitry Rogozin / State Duma deputy:

"In order for the banks to become reliable, a reliable economy is needed. And what can we talk about if we have been built exclusively on the oil industry? I think that large scandals and bankruptcy are still waiting for our banking system."

Maria Gaidar / Member of the ATP:

"I think that the banking system in our country is moving to become more reliable. The number of banks is growing, their money reserve is increasing. These are the right signs of recovery of the banking sector of the economy."

Alexey Navalny / Deputy Chairman of the Moscow branch of the Yabloko party:

"Banks have undoubtedly became more stable. This is a consequence of the stabilization of our economy. But the nervousness, the feeling of unsteady soil under their feet still remains. Many bankers still feel like on a powder barrel. And when it passes, I do not know."

Vera Stepanenko / Deputy of the Moscow City Duma:

"The fact that the economy becomes more stable from year to year, does not cause doubts. The universally recognized fact is that we are going to the level of 1998. However, this is probably the fears: after all, the banking crisis happened then. So people, guided by past experience, are afraid, for the most part, to lay out all their funds in bank accounts. I keep their money in the bank, in my opinion, it is completely stored at home. It is not serious.

12/25/2005 / Damis Polandov, Nadezhda Pomerantsev, the material was published in the newspaper No. 245 dated December 26, 2005.