Change of course

Aleksey Kudrin admitted that the government has no economic policy yesterday officials, businessmen, scientists and adviser to President Andrei Illarionov at the conference "Ruble and Economic Growth in Russia" tried to agree on how much the dollar should cost so that the Russian economy feels good. The discussion ended in the Kremlin.

Square root from GDP

The reason for the conversation was - the first Minister of Finance, Aleksey Kudrin, who received the word congratulated the audience on the fact that the real exchange rate of the ruble before the end of the year will reach the 1998 pre -crisis level. Congratulations, however, sounded somewhat ambiguous. “We took the advantage that our economy received from the devaluation of the ruble,” Kudrin recalled.

Only since 2002, the real ruble exchange rate in relation to the “dollar/euro” pair grew by 17%. “We are negotiating in negotiations with the WTO, what import duties we have - 10% or 15%, and here, we can consider that we immediately reduce the barriers by 17%,” Kudrin explained. Indeed, the strengthening of the ruble reduces the competitiveness of Russian industry, but with such an influx of petrodollars alternatives to strengthen, the Ministry of Finance admits. Another thing is the pace. For the next three years, the average nominal rate planned by the government should amount to 28.6 rubles per dollar, strengthening the real exchange rate - 4.2% in 2006 and 3.7% in 2007 and 2008. True, economic authorities regularly do not fulfill their promises: this year the strengthening amounted to 10% instead of 8% initially laid down in the budget.

The reason is simple - the Central Bank, which the task is to fight inflation, does this by strengthening the ruble.

What is the threat of business, said Alexander Livshits, deputy general director of Rusala. "The ruble is strengthened faster than the economy. 68% of the investment of the enterprise is carried out at the expense of its own funds, and the strengthening of them eats. It is not the doubling of GDP, but the extraction of a square root from it." The Ministry of Economic Development, by the way, yesterday confirmed such fears, reducing the forecast of industrial growth by 2005 from 4.6% to 4.1%, partly due to the fact that Russian goods lose imports in competitiveness.

Choosing Kudrin

In these conditions, from the point of view of the Ministry of Finance, the main task is by 2008 to reduce inflation to 4-5%. While the government is in no hurry to fulfill it. “We weakened the budget policy,” Kudrin admitted, first of all, indicating the excretion of the cut -off price for the stab fund from $ 20 to $ 27 per barrel, which made it possible to sharply increase government departments. “I voted against,” the minister recalled. “The desire to spend more understandly - we have low pensions and salaries,” Kudrin agreed, but you can do this in two ways: either get into a stabund and disperse inflation, or not touch oil money and increase expenses by strengthening the tax burden and reducing economic growth in the near future. "This is the choice between the left (Kudrin seemed to almost add:" turn ") and the right." That is, either divide everything now and lose in the future, or be patient and wait until the economy will increase expenses at the expense of the money actually earned, and not brought by the oil wind. “But this choice is largely political,” the minister said.

In fact, Kudrin admitted that such a choice has not yet been made, that if there were working president, government and parliament, it sounded somewhat strange.

Turn from Illarionov

Andrei Illarionov, the presidential adviser on economic issues immediately proposed to make the “right”, or rather, “ultra -right” turn. It is possible to defeat inflation, from his point of view, only by completely changing the economic policy. Control over government agents should be cruel: the cut -off price should not be lifted, but reduced to 15-17, and preferably to $ 12. And from the subordinates of the budget that do not enter the stabund, it is necessary to create another "Foundation of Future Generations", which will go to finance the transition to the funded pension system. In addition to budgetary, the state must also control the expenses of state -owned, such as Gazprom and Rosneft, prohibit them to take new loans and cancel the process of actual nationalization of a number of private companies, which is “financed by increasing tariffs, which ultimately leads to an increase in inflation”. And in general, the adviser reminded, the monopolies must eventually reform and privatize.

True, Illarionov recognized the unreality of such a program in the current situation, but, in his opinion, "in the future this program will be sure to implement in Russia."

It's time to decide

But Kudrin’s opinion that the fight against inflation is the main task for the government was supported by the president yesterday. At a meeting in the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin called on the government to end public discussions and finally submit an anti -inflationary plan. “Terms such as strengthening the real exchange rate of the ruble, for an ordinary citizen, sound quite deaf,” said Putin, “but the understanding that the increase in inflation eats the real incomes of our citizens, the price of prices undermines the economic base of the Russian family - this is understandable to everyone.” Perhaps, with the help of the Kremlin, the government will still decide on its economic policy.

10/26/2005 / Andrey Litvinov, the material was published in the newspaper No. 204 dated 10/27/2005.