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Presenter Lev Roitman

Lev Roitman:

Moscow Mayor Yuri Luzhkov has never yet stated unequivocally about his intention to run for president of Russia. This is his difference from Grigory Yavlinsky, Alexander Lebed, Gennady Zyuganov. However, polls show that the popularity of the Moscow mayor is growing in the all-Russian presidential direction. In the list of the most influential Russian politicians, Yuri Luzhkov is second after Yevgeny Primakov. But here everything is clear - Yevgeny Primakov is the Prime Minister of all Russia. How can we explain the growth in popularity, and therefore electability, of the Moscow mayor, if we are talking about the presidency? This is what we are talking about today. Participants, all by phone: Director of the Center for Liberal-Conservative Policy Arkady Murashov; journalist Ilya Milshtein, Moscow weekly “Novoe Vremya”; and professor-historian Andrei Zubov, who, I hope, will try to understand the figure of Yuri Luzhkov in the Russian historical context.

The popularity of Yuri Luzhkov, the mayor of Moscow, is steadily growing on a nationwide scale. How can we explain this?

Arkady Murashov:

You know, Luzhkov has every chance, of course, to be elected president in Russia. Firstly, he is one of the few candidates who sincerely wants this, who feels his messianic destiny and is ready to sacrifice a lot in order to achieve his goal. Secondly, resources - of all the Russian oligarchs, Luzhkov, perhaps, has the greatest potential, the greatest resources are put under arms and it will be very difficult to resist him here. Finally, the third, most important thing is that Luzhkov fits unusually well with the Russian mentality and mood. This summer we did a sociological survey, which, frankly speaking, surprised me and confirms this. The thing is, among the questions that were asked, there was one: in which country would you like to live? And so, as for goal setting, it is absolutely clear here - 2/3 of people answered that they would like to live in a normal Western country, like European or the United States of America. 30% of citizens said that they would like to live in the former Soviet Union. Nobody would like to live in modern Russia. But when asked: what do you think the government should do to live like in a normal Western country, the majority of citizens answered that it should nationalize enterprises, raise taxes, increase social benefits, and so on and so forth. That is, exactly the opposite of what should be done. And in this sense, Luzhkov fits this mentality unusually well. On the one hand, who would argue that Moscow is truly the most advanced, most western city with beautiful shop windows and an abundance of goods. On the other hand, the Moscow government is one of the most socialist, so to speak, in terms of its degree of influence, in terms of the degree of pressure it exerts on the Moscow economy. And the myth that is now gradually forming, or has already formed in Russia, is that if we had a president or mayor or governor like Luzhkov, we would live like in Moscow. The second or third reason is very important: Luzhkov has now become a leader for the regional elites, for his fellow governors. Now, if you look at what almost every governor in Russia does, he seems like a mini-Luzhkov, he does approximately the same thing as Luzhkov, based on the principle: the winner is not judged. He creates commercial structures, a regional bank, and takes over the entire economy of the region or region. I rightly believe that by doing so he will create the basis for victory in all subsequent elections. And if in the dispute for a piece of the federal pie, each of the governors is a real rival to Luzhkov, then in the struggle for power in the entire country, Luzhkov is their leader, their leader, their leader. And since the elections in Russia are far from being free, the administration’s influence on the election results and on the vote count is very significant, then, of course, we must evaluate Luzhkov’s chances as the best. To be honest, I think that Luzhkov will win the future presidential elections in the first round.

Lev Roitman:

Thank you, Arkady Nikolaevich. If, of course, he eventually categorically and unequivocally declares that he intends to take this presidential path, but at the same time, when you, Arkady Nikolaevich, say that he has become an object of imitation for regional leaders, then they are not able to follow the Russian leader in everything, they are not able to collect, imagine in Ryazan or in Tula, for Ryazan and for Tula, taxes from all-Russian financial commercial institutions, as well as monopolies that have their headquarters in Moscow, where they pay taxes - this is probably the financial peculiarity of Moscow, and, perhaps, one of the reasons for its stunning successes against the Russian background.

Ilya Milshtein:

There is only one thing I would disagree with, I would argue with Arkady Nikolaevich, that Luzhkov really wants to become president of Russia. I have a feeling that no one in Russia now wants to become president, except for the most inveterate demagogues, but with the exception, of course, of Grigory Yavlinsky, who is not a demagogue at all. I think that Yuri Mikhailovich is wonderful and happy in Moscow, he has perfectly settled into the Moscow elite, regulated relations with the Kremlin, and remained independent all these years. In general, he is doing great, and he is the right person in his place, of which there are so few in Russia, despite all the shortcomings and even vices of the Moscow power pyramid. I think that Luzhkov stated quite frankly, and it makes sense to listen to these words, that he will not stand for election if he sees that people worthy, from his point of view, are coming to power. He promised to aggressively support these people. And if unworthy people come, he said, then I will exhibit myself. The unworthy, I think, are Lebed, to some extent Zyuganov for Luzhkov, that is, people who threaten not Russia, but actually his Moscow power. Behind Lebed stands Berezovsky, behind Zyuganov there are various comrades who will remember Yuri Mikhailovich in 1993 and some other events in Russian history. This is what Luzhkov is afraid of. He is afraid of losing Moscow, and in order not to lose Moscow he may have to become president of Russia. I would like to say one more thing: in general, Luzhkov arose from the terrible political lack of fish that we see in Russia today. Yuri Mikhailovich, with all his merits, is naturally not a national leader, not even the national leader that, say, Yeltsin was in 1991, which is so difficult to believe today. Luzhkov is one of those small, in general, politicians who today have grown to their full gigantic height, because time somehow pushes them forward, but there are no real national figures.

Lev Roitman:

Thank you, Ilya Milshtein. You mentioned Yeltsin, and by the way, Yeltsin comes after Luzhkov in the latest list of the hundred most influential Russian politicians. But, it must be said that this list was compiled before Boris Yeltsin appeared from his dacha in the Kremlin for three hours and acted on the principle - I’ll disperse everyone, I’ll show everyone who’s boss here.

Andrey Zubov:

In principle, I very much agree with both Arkady and Ilya. Indeed, Yuri Mikhailovich is a man whom many in Russia are waiting for and want to have as president. It seems to me that the ancient complex of Russian consciousness is being reflected here - this is attention and love for a person who is capable of equipping and organizing life. It’s as if people now, and often in Russia in general, suffer from some inability, an inability to organize themselves. We remember how our recent hero of the day, Solzhenitsyn, was sad that despite all his attempts, no effective self-government is taking shape in Russia and is not expected to take shape in the near future. And this is a sign of such folk asthenia. But if you don’t know how to organize yourself, you can’t organize yourself, then you need to look for someone who can organize you. In this sense, Luzhkov, in my opinion, is an attractive figure, attractive because, on the one hand, he showed himself to be a master, and regarding his management, however, people say this: of course, he does not forget himself, but at least he gives to the city. The trouble is that they say about others: they don’t forget themselves, but they give Russia little. This is perhaps one aspect. The second aspect is that he is really seen in his affairs, and in matters not only and not so much political, where from time to time he makes political statements that cause very great doubts and embarrassment, as he is seen, first of all, in his practical administrative and economic activities, where something is actually being done. And I think that in this regard, Luzhkov fits into that category of Russian types of political state images, types of arrangers-creators, activists. However, such a person always evokes fierce envy, and at the same time causes terrible fear. Because in a society with such an asthenic syndrome, an active person who wants to do something fundamentally and actively is dangerous, dangerous for those who also want to live well, but know little how to do anything. And in this sense, I would disagree with Arkady that for other governors he is a leader. The fact is that it can hardly be considered that in the eyes of the majority of governors, Luzhkov is some kind of leader, rather the opposite. And in this sense, we see the same Lebed as a rival, because Luzhkov, if he has now developed Moscow and actually does not allow anyone to interfere in his domain, and has laid a firm hand on the largest city in Russia, then for any person who has the slightest understanding (I know that people in the administration understand this, both local and Moscow), that when and if Yuri Mikhailovich becomes the President of Russia, then this is some kind of spineless free spirit of sovereignty and semi-sovereignties that exist now, and which Luzhkov seems to indulge, enters into horizontal agreements with certain other subjects of the Federation - all this will end. He will be the same kind of strong, decisive and, within reasonable limits, autocratic master for all of Russia. Therefore, for local authorities who prefer to distance themselves from Moscow, President Luzhkov is rather not his own man in the highest position, but rather a rather large and serious danger.

Lev Roitman:

Thank you, Andrey Borisovich. Well, Goethe once said that architecture is music in stone. Well, probably, what he did with Moscow, rebuilding it, restoring it, decorating it, is what everyone can see, and you said, Andrei Borisovich, that Luzhkov is an activist, so what everyone can see in Moscow is, quite possibly, all-Russian taxes frozen in stone.

Arkady Murashov:

The fact is that you absolutely correctly pointed out the main reason for Moscow’s prosperity. This reason is that the tax burden falls unevenly, the distribution of taxes: Moscow gets the money that is earned by the whole of Russia. After all, Luzhkov is the only mayor or governor in the country who is not tormented by the problem of where to get money, but is tormented by the problem of how to spend it. If for other governors tension with money is a harsh reality, depending on the Federal budget, then for Luzhkov getting involved in another project to buy or build something is a normal routine. As for the prospects for the development of Moscow in such an economic situation, then, of course, it could be much higher. That is, if it weren’t for the Moscow government, I think the situation in Moscow would have been much better. This is despite the fact that a long-term cardinal problem, for example, replacing worn-out utility networks in Moscow, is solved very poorly, and collapsing walls or roads have already become such an everyday reality. But, I think that Luzhkov is still a leader for the governors, they internally feel like they belong to him, because they don’t care to live in Russia, and, despite the fact that Luzhkov, being a governor once again, is now a competitor for them and may even be to some extent an enemy who draws on their resources, then as the father of the entire nation he completely satisfies them, he is spiritually and ideologically close. And I think that Luzhkov has an excellent chance of collecting all the “leftist” votes and many “rightists” will vote for him out of old memory, thinking that he is a reformer, a marketist, and so on. Well, we, in fact, have 8 years of Luzhkov’s presidency left to find our consolation in the proverb “Don’t swear off money, but don’t swear off prison.”

Lev Roitman:

Thank you, Arkady Nikolaevich. I remember the time when in the former Soviet Union they hoped for the closure of closed distributors, believing that the deficit that accumulated in these distributors for the elite would be enough for everyone. Not enough. Isn’t it the same today with hopes on the business executive, on the activist Yuri Luzhkov, when everyone hopes that what he did in Moscow, using all-Russian taxes, can happen under the presidency of Yuri Luzhkov in Russia with all of Russia, but this will not result in any more taxes, probably, there will simply be fewer of them for Moscow.

Ilya Milshtein:

I don’t think that the confused, embittered, but most of all confused Russian population is putting their faith in Luzhkov, that anyone, having lived all these years in Russia, believes that some person, be it Luzhkov, Yeltsin, Yavlinsky, Gaidar or anyone else, can seriously change something. All or most of my fellow citizens, I think, have already become accustomed to the fact that this crisis, this all-Russian default, has been going on for quite a long time. And if they choose Luzhkov, it will be as the lesser of two evils. In fact, he is better than Zhirinovsky, he is better than Zyuganov, there is nothing to even argue about. As for the governors, who, I also believe, will support him, I would agree with Arkady Nikolayevich here - they are not afraid of him at all, he will not become the master of all of Russia, the situation in the country is not the same, he simply cannot, like Yeltsin, send troops everywhere where the governors have seized sovereignty. And in this sense, it completely suits them and will suit them. I think that there are some tacit agreements there that he will try to change for the better, but he will not take away power from them, demand in a poor country that they tear off pieces from their population for Moscow, for the center. And in general, in the situation that is developing in Russia today, Yuri Mikhailovich has a lot that can attract our confused and confused population. He attracts patriots for xenophobia, for Crimea, for left-centrism, although no one knows what this means on Russian soil. Democrats remember that he was with them in all truly crisis times, in all acute conflicts he was with them. And in this sense, he, although far from being the worst candidate, can suit many people. I would still say that today our conversation is shaping up in such a way that we are electing Yuri Mikhailovich for president, as if I had no longer even heard doubts that he will pass, but I would like to remind you that there is still quite a lot of time, if Yeltsin is more or less healthy until the year 2000, and, of course, the situation can change in any direction.

Andrey Zubov:

Of course, a lot can still change in a year and a half, Ilya, and I believe that we, first of all, should look at one more political figure - the current Prime Minister, and his position here is not entirely clear. But in conclusion, I can only say one thing: in Russia, after all, a lot depends on the individual, and personalism in Russian politics has always been very great, this is traditional. And I think that Luzhkov’s policy now is precisely the policy of increasing personal charisma and personal respect. Besides this, he can really give little to Russia, especially now, but he constantly promotes his personality as a person. It’s this personalism in Russian politics - the one who is now the brightest and most characteristic, and the personality most suitable for Russia, wins. And perhaps Luzhkov and the mysterious Primakov, who is always unclear why, but receives the sympathy of people, these are, perhaps, the two individuals who have the greatest prospects in the immediate Russian politics.

Lev Roitman:

Thank you, Andrey Borisovich. And I note that Yevgeny Primakov never said that he was going to apply for this position, although, again, who knows?