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There is no gasoline?
Gasoline prices in the Russian Federation are hit by records: Primorye and occupied Crimea without fuel
The situation at gas stations in the Primorsky Territory remains complicated. There is no fuel not only at gas stations along the highway, but even in many settlements. The influx of tourists from the Khabarovsk Territory provoked a fuel crisis on the federal highway "Ussuri". Residents of the Primorsky Territory complain of huge traffic jams at gas stations.
To eliminate the fuel deficiency, additional tanks with fuel are sent to individual districts of Primorye.
In Crimea and Transbaikalia, gasoline is sold on coupons. According to the inhabitants of the annexed Crimea, the AI-95 gasoline disappeared from most of the gas stations, and on those where it is still there, sales are carried out "mainly on coupons from enterprises."
Due to attacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, gasoline prices in Russia have taken off by 47%since the beginning of the year.
According to the results of the trading at the St. Petersburg Production and Syrgist Exchange on August 18, the AI-92 brand for the national index, which reflects the weighted average fuel cost for all large refineries, up to 71.516 thousand rubles per ton, and AI-95 up to 80.43 thousand. The previous AI-92 record was set almost two years ago.
The critical situation is formed in the season of the upcoming harvest, there are no fuel supplies for independent market participants, Kommersant sources note.
Industry experts say that gasoline prices will rise. According to the forecasts of the Doctor of Economics, professor of the Institute of International Economic Relations Lyudmila Krivko, in September, a liter of AI-92 will cost 60.55–72.10 rubles, AI-95-61.00–78.50 rubles.
In parallel with the fuel crisis in the Russian auto industry, its crisis is developing: the largest manufacturer of AvtoVAZ cars needs urgent assistance. The company has a collapse of sales, so since the end of September, AvtoVAZ is going to transfer the plant in Togliatti to an incomplete working week with a reduction in employees' earnings.
When will gasoline begin to get cheaper? Will the authorities can cope with the fuel crisis and establish affairs in the car industry? We discuss in the program "Facial to the event" with economist Vyacheslav Shiryaev .
The government extends the ban on export in order to save the prices, and is waiting for autumn: with the end of the vacations, the demand for fuel will fall. Reuters sources believe that in some regions there will be a shortage. In Primorye, motorists complain about gas stations. What happens to gasoline prices?
Gasoline prices in the Russian Federation are hit by records: Primorye and occupied Crimea without fuel
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The Bell writes that the state will reduce prices, but there are several conditions: if you prohibit export to friendly countries, force companies to sell gasoline more on the exchange, and not directly suppliers, or if you purchase Belarusian gasoline. The economic observer Vyacheslav Shiryaev answers:
“Nothing will help dramatically.” 15% - the norm of the sale of gasoline on the exchange. Suppose it will be made 17, then 20%. It is impossible to organize gasoline through the exchange by 100%: there are long contracts, vertically integrated holdings, conditionally, when Gazpromneft produces oil itself, then it processes oil itself and sells gasoline itself at its own gas stations. This is impossible. The government is seriously limited to making more than trading in gasoline through the exchange.
Forbid driving on cars?
As for the measures related to the reduction in demand after the vacation season, what can the government do when it ends - prohibit driving on cars? There is no solution that would avoid holding into gas prices. The more this is, the more deficiency, the longer the queues will be. The only way to deal with queues is always to release prices. If the government stops restraining prices, they will be able to balance. Removing the hands leads to the fact that the gas station becomes unprofitable. They will close the gas stations and say: "We will stand, we will not work at a loss." Any measures of the state, when it intervenes in market processes, lead to deficiency and queues.
The other day, Putin, by his decree, allowed the American company Exxonmobil to produce oil on Sakhalin. Condition: The company should ask other countries to lift sanctions from Russia, and purchase imported equipment itself. Can an American company return gasoline to the neighboring Primorsky Territory?
- No, these are not related processes. Oil on Sakhalin has always been developed as part of a product division agreement. You are letting a foreign company into your territory to produce oil. This is not your oil, this is oil of another company. And she will decide which plant, in her own Exxonmobil, in which country to process this oil and to whom to sell gasoline. In any way, it is impossible to solve the gasoline crisis, except by stopping the war, if the attacks on oil refineries stop. Each plant has several primary oil refining plants. And somewhere one installation is knocked out, about two. According to my calculations, no more than 10% is knocked out over August, these are the blows of Ukraine on Novokuybyshevsky, Saratov, and the Ryazan refinery. The oil product market is sensitive to the slightest reduction in supply: the price can fly into space even with a reduction by 15-20%. If the strikes continue, and if the factories are knocked out in the factories where one installation is knocked out, they will achieve the second, or reach other factories, a jump in prices can be even more shocking.
This is the vulnerability of Russia
Oil refineries are distributed unevenly in Russia. In Siberia, there is, for example, an Omsk oil refinery. The European part has its own plants, which supply the European part. The European part is more than half of the consumption of all gasoline in Russia. You can throw some volumes, but the logistics of gasoline, transportation over long distances, makes it even more expensive. Ukraine felt for a sore point, it knocks out gasoline in the most important consumption region, in the European part. This is the vulnerability of Russia. If Russia had oil refineries beyond the Urals, then it would be easier. But usually oil refineries are set closer to consumers. Ukraine showed the ability to knock out European oil refining capacities, there is no reason why Ukraine cannot do this. In addition to one: Putin stops the war, and the attacks on the oil refineries of the European part cease.
Can the industry be saved by export restriction?
- There is already a ban on unfriendly countries. And export to friendly countries will not change the situation. The purchase of fuel in Belarus will not be able to solve the problem, because Belarus has a budget deficit. They earn much more on export abroad than they can in the Russian market. If you put pressure on Belarus, she will say: "Okay, I will supply you with gasoline at domestic prices. But then give a loan, close my deficit." And they now have a seriously growing deficiency of payment balance, Belarus imports more than export. Russia cannot be painlessly asking for gasoline from Belarusians, it can only pay in charge of this. Therefore, she does not. In general, a resume: Putin does not have a solution. Russia does not have a solution to this problem. Only stop the war. Either agree with Ukraine, conditional air truce: Russia does not hit in Ukraine with long -range missiles, drones, and so on, and Ukraine stops attacking the refinery in Russia. But we can only judge this in fact: mutual blows will stop or not.
AvtoVAZ returns from vacation, but it seems that his problems are not solved. Details in our plot:
Vyacheslav Shiryaev continues:
- AvtoVAZ first in the first place in losses in the auto industry. The Russian automaker is not competitive when there is a problem with demand, and this demand was artificially supported by preferential lending, in fact, on artificial respiration. And real incomes of the population are reduced, there is no money to buy domestic cars. They are expensive, do not comply with the standards, for this money people are not ready to buy. Without normal competition, technologies that have gone along with Western manufacturers, the Russian automobile industry is doomed to roll into the abyss and to become a weight at the feet of the federal budget, which will plug these holes. It is necessary to stop AvtoVAZ until their entire storage site is cleared. 60,000 cars, in my opinion, it accommodates. They do not want to admit it. And if they reduce the revenues of workers by 20%, if reduction begins, they will never receive them back, it is difficult to recover then. Therefore, they milk the budget.
Not needed at such prices of a machine that constantly break
Reducing taxes is actually direct assistance from the budget, and the budget will not receive money. If you free AvtoVAZ from taxes, the federal budget will be very painful. AvtoVAZ has the only chance to reduce production, dismiss people, and achieve a reduction in costs. But the company exists in an uncompetitive environment, and the monopoly position makes them even more ineffective, that is, they do not save, do not optimize costs, they simply milk the budget under the guise that “we are a national treasure”. In the nineties, they rushed with AvtoVAZ, and until Renault came and bought, did not make an effective platform on which relatively cheap cars began to be produced. With the departure of Renault, AvtoVAZ has no ability to develop new cars that conquer the hearts of consumers and make them return with a wallet to car dealerships. Only violence is forced to buy people. So, “let's force taxes to buy cars.” Yes, it is not necessary at such prices of a machine that constantly break. Only pressure and artificial support mechanisms can allow to take place afloat. But ordinary people will pay for all this - inflation, increasing taxes. The national treasure, AvtoVAZ, which is the subject of memes and jokes, is doomed without Western partners, and will pump money from the pockets of Russians. Before the war began and expelled Renault, everything was good at AvtoVAZ, he did not give the distress signals. Probably, they will give them something from the budget and will be reanimated, we saw all this in the nineties.