The mayoral election campaign is in full swing in Moscow. The current head of the administration, Yuri Luzhkov, is running together with his deputy Valery Shantsev. Vice-Mayor Shantsev is a candidate to succeed Luzhkov if he tries to run for the post of president or head of government in 2000. Shantsev now firmly declares: he is no longer a communist. Apparently, he was “reforged.”

Another contender, Sergei Kiriyenko, has also changed, and today he makes speeches that no one would have expected from him a year ago.

Sergey Kiriyenko:

For me, what the Moscow government is doing today and the Kremlin government that is in conflict with it are no different at all. A dispute between two families. What difference does it make which family comes to power? The methods are the same, the principles are the same. First, the Moscow authorities dump dirt on Yeltsin, then Yeltsin’s... Two heads of the same dragon, no different from each other.

Mikhail Sokolov:

The Moscow City Election Commission, after several niggles, gave the former prime minister the opportunity, together with the famous architect Vyacheslav Glazychev, to begin collecting the signatures necessary for registration.

But a couple of LDPR nominees, Alexei Mitrofanov and Andrei Brezhnev, were unlucky. An ally of the leader of the LDPR and the grandson of the secretary general did not receive the right to collect signatures and are planning to sue.

This is the situation in Moscow.

The beginning of the election campaign in St. Petersburg for the elections of Duma deputies and early elections of the city governor was marked by extraordinary events. A significant part of the deputies of the Legislative Assembly of St. Petersburg challenged the calling of the gubernatorial elections in court. Our correspondent in St. Petersburg, Viktor Rezunkov, talks about the forensic and criminal aspect of the St. Petersburg elections.

Victor Rezunkov:

Yabloko deputies are challenging in court the law on postponing the gubernatorial elections adopted by a group of deputies of the Legislative Assembly and signed by Governor Vladimir Yakovlev. “Yabloko” stands firm and intends to reach the Supreme Court.

Because of this uncertainty, the election campaign took on the form of a sluggish process. Only six people declared their desire to fight for the governor's seat. Three of them are known. This is a member of the Legislative Assembly Igor Rimer, the author of the bill on postponing the elections and an ally of Vladimir Yakovlev in the Fatherland - All Russia bloc. This is another deputy, Sergei Andreev, who already participated in the gubernatorial elections in 1996. And this is the well-known Vyacheslav Marychev, a constant participant in all elections, without exception.

The other three who collected the signature sheets from the City Election Commission (and according to the law - until November 22, in order to register as a candidate, sixty-five thousand signatures of St. Petersburg residents must be collected) are unknown people.

Governor Vladimir Yakovlev himself is in no hurry to register. In order to take part in the elections, he must go on vacation. One of his main opponents, Yuri Boldyrev, is also in no hurry to register, he is waiting for court decisions.

If the courts recognize the legitimacy of the decision taken by deputies on October 8 to postpone the elections, ex-mayor of St. Petersburg Anatoly Sobchak will also put forward his candidacy. “The government,” he said, “that engages in illegal actions bordering on such a crime as forgery, does not have the moral right to represent the second most important city in Russia.”

On October 20, Viktor Novoselov, a deputy of the Legislative Assembly and one of the main initiators of postponing the elections, was killed in St. Petersburg. Viktor Novoselov is a controversial figure in many ways. He was the main contender for the post of Chairman of the Legislative Assembly. And in the assembly itself, Viktor Novoselov always actively defended the interests of the governor of St. Petersburg. However, at the same time he played his own game. This is what the chairman of the St. Petersburg branch of “DemRussia” Ruslan Linkov says.

Ruslan Linkov:

As far as I know, Viktor Novoselov was indeed associated with the criminal circles of the city of St. Petersburg for quite a long time and, in general, it was no secret to anyone that right next to the Legislative Assembly, Mr. Novoselov held his meetings with the leader of the Tambov criminal group, Mr. Kumarin, in the Adamant restaurant. And he went to these meetings without hiding at all, and even emphasizing his close acquaintance with Mr. Kumarin.

Viktor Novoselov played a very serious role in the Legislative Assembly. After the elections in 1998, the Legislative Assembly of St. Petersburg became very criminalized, and Viktor Novoselov practically played the role of such a coordinator of this criminalized part of the deputies of the Legislative Assembly. He actively participated in the implementation of the law on postponing the date of elections for the governor of St. Petersburg, practically fulfilling the task of the governor of St. Petersburg, but at the same time playing his own game.

In my opinion, Viktor Novoselov has found a new figure for the post of governor, more interesting for him and for the criminal world, and, quite simply, in this game, apparently, he has gone very far.

Victor Rezunkov:

Ruslan Linkov does not name the name of this mysterious figure, which Viktor Novoselov once bet on. We will find out this name if the gubernatorial elections take place on December 19.

Mikhail Sokolov:

The Yabloko electoral association, led by Grigory Yavlinsky and Sergei Stepashin, was registered by the Central Election Commission, having received the right to conduct a campaign. Sergei Stepashin is a guest of the “Elections-99” program.

- Sergey Vadimovich, when Gennady Seleznev decided not to fight with you in St. Petersburg, was this unexpected for you and did you have the feeling that the communists just like that, very competently escaped from the blow where they were losing?

Sergey Stepashin:

Yes, there was a feeling. Moreover, when I moved forward in the 209th, negotiations were underway with me. I personally talked with Seleznev... Well, there were walkers, including from his team, about how...

Mikhail Sokolov:

Disperse.

Sergey Stepashin:

How to break up, yes. Therefore, on the one hand, it was somewhat unexpected, because it seemed that everyone had already decided, there was a congress, you remember. Gennady Nikolaevich then wrote a letter that he asked to be left in 209, as an exception. Therefore, I was already “lined up” for a serious political struggle in two hundred and nine.

That is, an expected surprise, I would formulate it this way. And the communists, indeed, acted quite competently. And they saved their face, and they found the Moscow region. Well, life will show, everything is still ahead.

Mikhail Sokolov:

Sergei Vadimovich, now who is your main rival there, in civilian life?

Sergey Stepashin:

I don't even know. Candidate...

Mikhail Sokolov:

They said Yuri Boldyrev might go.

Sergey Stepashin:

No, Yuri Boldyrev will be elected in a different constituency - where he has always been elected. This is the Moscow district, this is his home district, he lived there, lives there, and his voter is there.

And I just don’t know the rest very well right now. I know that the famous Yuri Shutov was there...

Mikhail Sokolov:

Left too?

Sergey Stepashin:

Left. I don’t know whether Yakubovsky will be there. We'll see who else will be there.

Mikhail Sokolov:

Sergei Vadimovich, are you not afraid of a clash, so to speak, with the party in power in St. Petersburg, with the party of Governor Yakovlev, due to the fact that Yabloko is now very harshly opposing Yakovlev?

Sergey Stepashin:

Yes, I feel that this already exists today, and based on the monitoring of those television programs and programs that are now broadcast on St. Petersburg television, including about me, certain passages are beginning to appear there, that I am applying for some posts and positions there, and that I have no time for voters.

Yes, apparently, I won’t get an active ally there. Therefore, I will work on my own, with my team. I have my own headquarters, a headquarters headed by Yabloko, and here I will rely mainly on my own strength.

Mikhail Sokolov:

Sergei Vadimovich, the very scandalous elections for the governor of St. Petersburg were called... What is your opinion about this?

Sergey Stepashin:

I think this is a shame for the city. This is how to twist the hands of deputies of the Legislative Assembly, manipulate the quorum, people, put pressure on them, shape public opinion... Therefore, you know that a fairly large faction has now been formed in the Legislative Assembly of my hometown, St. Petersburg.

Today I just met with representatives of St. Petersburg, they came to us here in Moscow. Artemyev is there, Shishlov, Mikhail Amosov. So, twenty-four people are, in fact, more than half of the deputies of the Legislative Assembly of democratic orientation, who act very harshly in relation to the arbitrariness that is happening in the Duma. This is the first, in the Legislative Assembly.

And second. I know that the material has now been sent to the city court. Then, if there is no corresponding decision from the city court, well, the court decides itself, we cannot replace it, then the materials will be sent to the Supreme Court.

I would very much like for our court in St. Petersburg and the Central Election Commission to put an end to the possibility of using this kind of technology in the elections, both Duma, and especially presidential, next year. Here, in St. Petersburg, again we must prove that we have power in the country, that we are a legal state.

Mikhail Sokolov:

That is, elections should take place on time in 2000?

Sergey Stepashin:

Yes. Moreover, the most interesting thing is that Vladimir Anatolyevich Yakovlev, when he fought with Sobchak, appealed to the people of St. Petersburg - to the Leningraders then - precisely with this: why early elections? Let's get it done on time. Stop messing with the city, stop deceiving the townspeople.

Mikhail Sokolov:

Sergei Vadimovich, well, if the Supreme Court nevertheless recognizes this calling of elections as legal, is your opinion whether Yabloko should participate in these elections or not?

Sergey Stepashin:

We agreed to return to this issue. Today there was a meeting on this very issue, after the court decision becomes clear, after November 19th.

Mikhail Sokolov:

One more question, it is also connected with St. Petersburg. Governor Yakovlev actively advocates that the legislative bodies of Russia be moved to St. Petersburg, so that, indeed, the city becomes the second capital. Do you support such a plan or not?

Sergey Stepashin:

There's something interesting about this. I think it's probably interesting. Maybe the Federation Council... Because the State Duma and most of the deputies, working in Moscow, still have the opportunity - in the good sense of the word - to go around the offices and advocate for their native land, for their voters. Traveling from St. Petersburg to Moscow, of course, will be quite difficult.

But the Federation Council - probably, when the governors could meet in Tavrichesky, it would be interesting. Maybe some other government institutions - say, the Academy of Sciences, the Ministry of Justice - could be moved to St. Petersburg - this could probably be done, because we would still like for the city to acquire a different political and economic face through this.

Mikhail Sokolov:

"Yabloko" and Stepashin. So, “Yabloko” separately and “Yabloko” with Stepashin - what is the fundamental difference?

Sergey Stepashin:

Well, this is not a difference... rather, it is a movement forward. Firstly, Yabloko is leaving a fairly corporate organization and entering into a political alliance with a fairly independent person who has worked a lot in the executive branch. This means that we are going to power. This means that Yabloko and Stepashin are moving from a constructive position to the question... not only of saying what and how... but also of doing it ourselves in the government, in municipalities, provinces, and so on.

And thirdly, this is, of course, a certain expansion of the electorate. Not just apple. These include representatives of law enforcement agencies and the military. My last trip to the Caucasus showed that with the arrival of me in Yabloko and our union, the electorate who would now be ready to vote for the two of us has seriously changed. This is good.

Mikhail Sokolov:

You could become the leader, so to speak, of such a more center-right coalition. It didn't happen. Nevertheless, many believe that you are a bridge between Yabloko and the right. Is that so?

Sergey Stepashin:

For me this bridge exists. Moreover, many of my friends, with whom I was unable to create a coalition, work there; we have an agreement on a number of districts. In St. Petersburg, we agreed in almost all districts not to interfere with each other, but even to support each other. Although now we are competing. But we compete with partners, not with political enemies or opponents. There is a bridge.

Mikhail Sokolov:

And, perhaps, the last thing. What result do you expect for Yabloko in this campaign, according to the party lists?

Sergey Stepashin:

In the top three, there is a hundred percent opportunity to reach second place. For this you need about fourteen to fifteen percent.

Mikhail Sokolov:

But aren't you being modest? You can also go to the first one. If there is such a campaign of throwing mud at each other, excuse me...

Sergey Stepashin:

You noticed correctly. If there had been no mud-slinging campaign, if there had been no political terror in the media, I think it would have been possible to come out on top... Well, there should be equal conditions. Well, and then, frankly speaking, the communists still have a fairly stable electorate, this is a lot of people... This is a protest electorate of those who are not happy with life. We're not doing well right now, so...

Mikhail Sokolov:

But do they go to the polls?

Sergey Stepashin:

And they go to the polls, absolutely right. This is the most politically active part of the population. If all the young people came - those who are today from eighteen to thirty - we would take first place, one hundred percent.

Mikhail Sokolov:

We talked with the former Prime Minister of Russia, number two on the electoral list of the Yabloko association, Sergei Stepashin.

The Yabloko electoral association was registered with minor losses, but Vladimir Zhirinovsky is forced to present the Central Election Commission with a new bloc, without the formal participation of his LDPR party, a bloc named after himself. What have you lost - a deposit or something more? - I asked the bloc leader Zhirinovsky.

Vladimir Zhirinovsky:

It's hard to say. Because they even gained something. Because today everyone knows how much Yavlinsky earns a month - four hundred thousand rubles, let them evaluate him now. These... were the same complaints against everyone.

Mikhail Sokolov:

Are you hurt?

Vladimir Zhirinovsky:

We suffered in the sense that we are forced to spend more energy now, but the people all see that we are neither pro-government nor pro-Kremlin... because no one defended us. We were trampled, so to speak, and now we are moving... Bloc... thank God that we gave the bloc a name that everyone understands, that Zhirinovsky’s bloc is the LDPR.

Mikhail Sokolov:

Have you lost your deposit?

Vladimir Zhirinovsky:

Yes. And a deposit. Same. The law is imperfect. I understand that when a party gets less than five percent, give a deposit in favor of the state... But when the party was not allowed to participate in the elections, in this case, why a deposit? A deposit is required if you take part in elections... Also... this is another nonsense of the law. If we didn’t take part, why should we give the deposit to the state?

Mikhail Sokolov:

Veshnyakov said that since you did not file a lawsuit, it means that you recognized the claims as justified.

Vladimir Zhirinovsky:

Why? No.

Mikhail Sokolov:

It was necessary to sue.

Vladimir Zhirinovsky:

So it was necessary to sue - then we will not take part in the elections. Elections are more important to us. The court is not going anywhere. You can go to court at any time. And the elections are all, now, on Sunday, everything ends. All. And no one else will take part in the elections. So let's say nothing for now...

Mikhail Sokolov:

The right has problems too. Workers of the Union of Right Forces mixed up the folders with signatures, and the signatures from Tambov ended up in the Samara folder, and so on. Because of such carelessness, the Union of Right Forces is on the verge of dropping out of the election campaign. His chance is to make a two-million-dollar deposit at the last hour, if signatures still rejected by the Central Election Commission are revealed. But the Kiriyenko-Nemtsov-Khakamada bloc also faces internal problems.

The leaders of the Union cannot clearly formulate their attitude towards the authorities and the Chechen war. In addition, they may be squeezed out by Sergei Shoigu’s Unity bloc. Number three on the list of the Union of Rightists, Irina Khakamada, denies this.

Irina Khakamada:

This “Unity” is perceived by the party in power, and we have been in the opposition for a long time. Secondly, these people are more like representatives of “Fatherland - All Russia” or “Yabloko”, and the three of us seem to represent a different generation, and this is very noticeable.

Mikhail Sokolov:

And what about the attitude towards the existing government now?.. Putin’s policy is becoming so aggressive, active - does it not change for you?

Irina Khakamada:

No, the attitude towards the authorities does not change, in the sense that we are in opposition on many key issues, but at the same time we support Putin in relation to Chechnya, because there is simply no other choice.

Mikhail Sokolov:

But human rights activist Sergei Kovalev, who is on the federal list of the Union of Right Forces, considers Vladimir Putin’s policies extremely dangerous. He is sure that a big war has begun in the Caucasus.

Sergey Kovalev:

What is happening in Chechnya is a new war, these are not anti-terrorist actions. Terrorists cannot be fired from cannons or bombs thrown at them, this is obvious. The precision of these strikes is well known to all of us from the last war. The actual difference between the campaign in Chechnya and the campaign that NATO waged in the Balkans recently... is a fundamental difference... It’s in vain that our generals refer to NATO. NATO fought with the Serbian army, and not with any terrorists, and therefore one can have different attitudes towards this military campaign.

But when you are at war with an army, it is natural to bomb infrastructure or industrial facilities that are important to defense capabilities. When you're fighting terrorists, it's completely pointless, right? And so, the peaceful victims were not long in coming.

Now. If our fatherland intends to fight a rebellious territory that has declared its independence, such campaigns have happened. But then, please don’t lie, but say honestly: not with any terrorists, with Chechnya, which wants to be a separate state. Here comes the war.

And then please explain to me what you did with those agreements that you yourself signed and were so proud of at the end of the last military campaign? Tell me honestly, stop lying. And then we will analyze what corresponds to the law here and what does not.

Mikhail Sokolov:

It is known that Anatoly Chubais, the chief of staff of the Union of Right Forces and, to a lesser extent, the leader of the union Sergei Kiriyenko are targeting Vladimir Putin as a potential presidential candidate in 2000. This version is confirmed by the head of the Tver list of the Union of Right Forces, Sergei Yushenkov.

Sergei Yushenkov:

I come to the conclusion that most of Putin’s actions - actions, not Putin’s words - in principle, find understanding in the Union of Right Forces. Putin’s desire and desire to restore order using, I emphasize, legal methods is a matter of respect. If, say, the elections take place today, or, say, not today, but let’s hypothetically assume: that’s it, the presidential election campaign has begun, I do not rule out that the Union of Right Forces would indeed support Putin in the presidential elections.

Mikhail Sokolov:

This was the opinion of Sergei Yushenkov. Meanwhile, his potential opponent Sergei Kovalev notices an important component of today's events in Chechnya: with the help of war, Vladimir Putin is being created to look like a capable prime minister capable of becoming Boris Yeltsin's heir.

Sergey Kovalev:

For me, as a person who respects the principle of the presumption of innocence, it is not at all obvious who is the author of terrorist explosions in cities. It is very likely that there is a “North Caucasian trace” there, very likely. It is impossible not to check this version while investigating this.

There is some probability, and a considerable probability, that these explosions have a “Moscow trace.” I would really not like to believe in this version, it is just as unproven as the Caucasian version, but it cannot be left unchecked.

But what is absolutely obvious is who is using these explosions. It’s not Chechnya that uses them. Moscow uses them. 100% used, very effective. And there are no questions here. Then the following questions come to mind: why are all three of the last prime ministers appointed in Moscow originating from the KGB, huh? Is this by chance or not by chance? I'm afraid it's not a coincidence. And the question of where they are trying to turn our political evolution, Russia, is completely obvious to me. They are powerfully and purposefully pushing, so to speak, in the direction of so-called sovereignty, this is how the KGB understands statehood and the search for a “firm hand.” That's all, actually. This is transparent, it is simply visible to the naked eye.

Mikhail Sokolov:

But Putin is promoting this, in fact, his campaign...

Sergey Kovalev:

Yes, and this is why Putin’s rating is growing, unfortunately. And I’ll even tell you when it will fall. When will the use of ground forces in Chechnya begin, and the “cargo-200” will go. Then, so to speak, the Moscow man in the street will scratch his head and think: “Maybe Putin is not so good?”

Mikhail Sokolov:

This was the opinion of State Duma deputy Sergei Kovalev.

As we see, within the Union of Right Forces there are completely opposite points of view. And how the Russian right will be able to find ideological unity on such a difficult issue and show voters a common position remains a question.

The main events of the pre-election Russian autumn turned out to be closely connected with the political life of the United States of America and Europe. Scandalous revelations of Russian corruption were actively promoted by Western publications and television channels. The Mabetex case, the Skuratov case, the Bank of New York case, in which a structure associated with both the Kremlin and the Moscow City Hall turned out to be involved. There are information wars going on, and a new war is going on in Chechnya.

How is the election campaign in Russia seen from the West? We are talking about this with a guest at the Moscow studio of Radio Liberty, Ariel Cohen, a leading expert on Russia at the Heritage Foundation.

- Mr. Cohen. The corruption scandal that is happening around Russia, when one side accuses the Yeltsin family of certain illegal operations, the other side accuses the Luzhkov family of similar operations - how does it affect the election situation in Russia?

Ariel Cohen:

Well, I think it doesn't quite have the effect that people in America expect it to have. In America, these kinds of scandals involve billions... well, even if it were thousands... but if this happens, so to speak, in violation of the law, this in itself is a colossal scandal. And normal Americans... by the way, and the British (I also talked to them a lot about this), expect that this kind of dirt, compromising material, destroys political reputations.

In my opinion... Having talked with Russians, I think that people simply shrug their shoulders and, in general, no one pays much attention to this. That is, at the level of expectations, the population understands that since a person has access to power, he can steal, or even will steal. And he will steal until, so to speak, he is grabbed by the hand and caught. All this is understood in Russia completely differently than in the United States.

There are global norms of legal behavior of power, democratic power, there are legal norms and customary norms of transparency of power. The people must understand that if they elect someone, then these people must work for them, for the voter. They do not have the right to engage in activities that they do not have the right to engage in - according to the law.

Maybe it sounds crazy now, on the air, and maybe everyone will laugh at me very loudly now. But I think that Vice President Gore, who said that these are relics of the damned past, is simply ridiculous. Because then we can say that the murders of Indians or blacks, for which, by the way, are now sentenced to death in the States, are also relics of the damned slaveholding past. This is nonsense.

Second. Strobe Talbot - I just started reading his testimony in Congress - said: "Yes, indeed, there were isolated cases of corruption, but, in general, this is the price that we want ... We, the United States, are ready to pay for transformation, for reforms in Russia." This, too, I believe, is neither fair nor correct, because, as a donor of aid that flows, as it were, from the pockets of taxpayers, the United States has every right, just like the International Monetary Fund, to demand a full account of how, where and in compliance with or violation of what norms this aid was used. And if violations occurred, then the Fund, the World Bank, and the US government have every right to demand an investigation and, perhaps even, if such legal norms were violated, have the right to demand punishment for those responsible.

Mikhail Sokolov:

Mr. Cohen. You spoke about a certain moral aberration, so to speak, in the minds of citizens, that they do not perceive criminal acts as they should be perceived. This aberration now, in the real pre-election situation in Russia - who is it really working for when the elite exposes each other?

Ariel Cohen:

I think on some intellectuals from the sixties, who have not yet died out, so to speak, and on some other, perhaps eccentrics. Because... I say that neither people close to power, nor the elite, so to speak, highbrow, nor... taxi drivers perceive moral aberration, bribery and embezzlement as something outside the norms of behavior.

Mikhail Sokolov:

What are the chances of the main political forces? At least the latest polls show that the Communist Party, Fatherland - All Russia, and Yabloko are guaranteed to get into the Duma.

Ariel Cohen:

I think that this is, in general, true. Maybe people of some other orientation will run in the single-mandate elections. It’s possible that some of the right will get through the single-mandate elections, and it’s possible that some pro-government elements will also get in if they organize their election campaigns well.

Mikhail Sokolov:

But the new Unity bloc, led by Sergei Shoigu, does it have a chance of ousting the Luzhkov-Primakov bloc?

Ariel Cohen:

It all depends on how fearlessly and conscientiously those governors who will be part of this bloc will work. If they are not afraid that Luzhkov will later “punch them in the brain”, if he wins and if, moreover, he later becomes president - he or Primakov - and the time of reckoning does not come... then if they provide work, and if they have a mechanism, the election machine works, then perhaps they will break through to five percent. Although we are now talking about an unborn child.

Mikhail Sokolov:

There is a leader.

Ariel Cohen:

Shoigu.

Mikhail Sokolov:

Yes.

Ariel Cohen:

Well, again - Shoigu... I don’t know how much he is perceived in Russia today as a charismatic politician. He is perceived as a fairly intelligent minister.

Mikhail Sokolov:

Professional.

Ariel Cohen:

Professional. Master of his craft. To some extent, this is a person from the same circle from which Putin and Stepashin emerged.

Mikhail Sokolov:

Well, Putin’s rating, as we see, with the increase in tension and “various” terrorist attacks, has grown literally before our eyes.

Ariel Cohen:

The growth of Putin's popularity in an extreme situation still does not pull Putin into the presidential race, in which Primakov or Luzhkov, or maybe even both of them, and Zyuganov will participate.

That is, much more time must pass before we can say with confidence that Putin is coming out at least in second place. Because, as it were... who will be in the second round - a lot will depend on this. Does Zyuganov advance to the second round today? It's not clear. Maybe it comes out, maybe it doesn’t.

So, it seems to me that it is too early to talk about Putin as a real candidate.

Mikhail Sokolov:

Well, Boris Nikolayevich often changed his opinion, on the one hand, on the other, and the Kremlin team has made so many mistakes over the years - we know that.

Ariel Cohen:

Undoubtedly. No, I think there will be a bet on him. I think it will be promoted. It is clear that this did not happen to Stepashin. And who do they actually still have left? It is not clear who they still have left. To bring Lebed, as they tell Boris Abramovich Berezovsky that he wants Lebed... I find it hard to believe that this team... is so, so to speak, lacking the instinct of self-preservation, to bring Alexander Ivanovich from themselves.

That is, Alexander Ivanovich himself can break down this door, somehow. But for the Kremlin team to do this, I find it hard to believe.

Mikhail Sokolov:

Well, isn’t it possible that such a combination is now experimental: Putin-Shoigu? If one doesn’t succeed, and the other successfully passes the Duma elections, another castling is possible, sometime in the winter.

Ariel Cohen:

And the bet is on Shoigu?

Mikhail Sokolov:

To Shoigu, yes.

Ariel Cohen:

Remember the parliamentary elections of 1995? On one side there was Rybkin, on the other - Chernomyrdin, and neither one nor the other succeeded. And everything looked pretty bad. In this sense, I am not an optimist. Still, a politician must have an image, some charismatic qualities, money, and a team. If all this is not there - together, it is as if it is a whole that is greater than its component parts. This must somehow merge into some kind of derivative, which then, so to speak, draws out this politician.

Of course, the Luzhkov-Primakov bloc has its own problems. But it also seems to me that after all, the people are pretty tired of Yeltsin’s team, and there will still be a protest vote.

It seems to me today that any connection with the Kremlin worsens the candidate’s chances, and being in opposition improves his chances.

Mikhail Sokolov:

From your point of view, now Primakov naturally has the preferable chances? For now, in the current situation?

Ariel Cohen:

Are we talking about the presidential campaign or the parliamentary ones?..

Mikhail Sokolov:

About presidential ones.

Ariel Cohen:

In the presidential elections, most likely, Evgeniy Maksimovich has quite high chances. But, again: the age factor works against him. It seems to me that with people under thirty, maybe even up to thirty-five, for whom memories of the Brezhnev period are either non-existent or they are not positive - for them, in general, Primakov is not a figure of the MTV generation, he is not even a figure of the generation of, say, thirty-year-olds. So I don't know how attractive he is to them.

You just need to look at the polls, raise the demographics, just look at the profiles of those among whom Primakov is popular.

Mikhail Sokolov:

On the other hand, these people, to a large extent, do not go to the polls, while people of the older generation still go in a disciplined manner.

Ariel Cohen:

Then it works... Then it works for Evgeniy Maksimovich, of course.

Mikhail Sokolov:

If the Primakov-Luzhkov connection remains, there is no guarantee that after the Duma elections...

Ariel Cohen:

Primakov does not have his own car, he does not have an electoral machine. I don’t know how he can go to the presidential elections...

Mikhail Sokolov:

Without Luzhkov?

Ariel Cohen:

Without... without a car. It could even be a communist car, in principle. This could be the Kremlin's car.

Mikhail Sokolov:

Chechnya. A war could break out, indeed, quite large-scale...

Ariel Cohen:

In my opinion, it has already flared up.

Mikhail Sokolov:

War and elections. Who benefits from this and who loses, again, in December?

Ariel Cohen:

It all depends on how the war goes.

Mikhail Sokolov:

Who wins?

Ariel Cohen:

Yes. If the war goes well for the government, - oh, naturally, it is good for the government! - then Putin’s chances, so to speak, increase. Then, perhaps, even Yeltsin can say: “You see, in 1994-96 it was bad, but now we have corrected ourselves, we have taken into account the mistakes.”

If the war is going badly, and especially if, then, there... let’s say, the same Grigory Yavlinsky may begin to criticize, maybe Luzhkov and Primakov will begin to criticize... In any case, as soon as, God forbid, of course, zinc coffins begin to appear, then it will be very, so to speak, convenient to attack the government then.

Another thing is... I am also trying to understand who took the initiative to escalate this war - is it only the Chechens, or only the militants? Or was this somehow fueled by the Russian side? After all, low-intensity conflicts can be played out at the pinpoint level of commando operations, some targeted strikes, espionage and sabotage activities, and so on. They can be played at the strategic bombing level...

Mikhail Sokolov:

Which is exactly what happens.

Ariel Cohen:

Which is exactly what happens. And, on the other hand, the answer to this is explosions of civilians, that is, terrorism.

And we have seen, from the Arab-Israeli conflict to Vietnam, how differently these kinds of conflicts could proceed. Let's say, the operation in Kosovo, where colossal force was used, mobilized NATO armies... This is like one level. It seems to me that Russia today does not have such resources for such a level of operation.

On the other hand, it seems to me, again, that at the level of expert specialists, so to speak, at the surgical level, not enough operations were carried out in order to send masses of infantry. And even more so, untrained infantry, young infantry that does not know how to truly fight in difficult conditions.

You know, I talked to many experts in the United States, the military, and they say that this kind of operation, in the mountains, against militants, and so on, is several orders of magnitude more difficult, psychologically and physically, than a conventional war. Are Russians ready for this today? Are mothers ready for this, right? Are the young guys ready for this? I'm not at all sure about this.

Mikhail Sokolov:

It seems to me that, to a large extent, what is happening, this escalation of fear, terror, and so on, is working for parties like Zhirinovsky’s LDPR, which have long proposed... well, some completely crazy, tough decisions. It turns out that they are right.

Ariel Cohen:

Yes, but who takes them seriously, even...

Mikhail Sokolov:

Well, you can take five percent from this. Hysterical.

Ariel Cohen:

Yes. I don’t think that the war in Chechnya was provoked by Zhirinovsky, it’s just that he doesn’t have the strength or resources to do it.

Mikhail Sokolov:

It's more of a gift to him.

Ariel Cohen:

Present. On the other hand, you know, if, again, we apply such conspiratorial thinking: who is Zhirinovsky working for, who benefits from Zhirinovsky today? Again - to the government, this is a pro-government party, in essence. Moreover, if this works for Zhirinovsky, then to some extent Zhirinovsky’s electorate and the communist electorate are close. By taking away votes from the communists, it works for the government.

I spoke with one of the communist members of the Duma, he says that "we do not expect to receive as much as we received in 1995." Even they understand this.

Mikhail Sokolov:

This is true. Moreover, they quite often walked alongside the authorities and were, through Primakov, in the government, so they too were discredited during this period.

Ariel Cohen:

Well, besides, I still don’t see how such a classically old force, an ideologically outdated force, like the communists... Well, this... this is pure the beginning of the twentieth century.

Mikhail Sokolov:

Are you saying that they haven't modernized...

Ariel Cohen:

Absolutely.

Mikhail Sokolov:

...neither towards social democracy, nor towards some kind of nationalism...

Ariel Cohen:

Well, they tried towards nationalism. I don’t know whether they succeeded or not, but at the same time they seemed to remain, and the old symbols remained - Lenin, the hammer and sickle, the red flag - it doesn’t work, it’s all gone so much that I don’t see how they can remain competitive as a political force.

Indeed, they will remain on their own there... I don’t know, they will have, let’s say, instead of twenty-five percent... there will be twenty, and then there will be fifteen, and then seven, as in France. And that's how they slowly leave the stage, obviously.

Mikhail Sokolov:

Perhaps one more topic. It’s like we looked at how the pieces stand on the chessboard now. Well, let’s imagine a situation where this chessboard suddenly turns over, all the pieces are discarded, and Yeltsin has already done this...

Ariel Cohen:

1993

Mikhail Sokolov:

Well, for example. And another option is that now the Russian President has approved the draft union treaty between Russia and Belarus. Is it possible that between one election and another the country will receive some kind of referendum on the creation of a union state, the head of which, in one way or another, will be Boris Nikolayevich Yeltsin?

Ariel Cohen:

Well, then the electorate should know that Lukashenko will follow Yeltsin, since he will be second in importance in this scenario. I think that, after all, Russians, no matter how nostalgic they are for the times of the past, no matter how much they are ready to accept a figure such as Yevgeny Maksimovich Primakov, who, in general, even under Brezhnev, even under Gorbachev, could really become, say, a general secretary - he seemed to be in the circle from which this kind, this caliber of figures... You can say... there... I don’t know: “Primakov is Andropov today,” although they say that Putin is Andropov today.

Such nostalgia may work for Primakov, but this nostalgia is not so serious that the people want Lukashenko, so to speak, to become king.

Mikhail Sokolov:

Although it is popular in the provinces.

Ariel Cohen:

But Moscow will not accept him.

Mikhail Sokolov:

Moscow - yes. But the feeling of nostalgia for a large union state, for the Slavic brotherhood, can certainly be exploited in such a situation. No?

Ariel Cohen:

Can. In Washington, by the way, the scenario you described for a union state headed by Yeltsin is called “playing Milosevic.” When Milosevic's powers ended, when he was the president of Serbia, he had to go somewhere, and he did not give up power, did not want to give up - he became the president of the union Yugoslavia.

Will Boris Nikolaevich agree to this? I would like to hope not. Still, Boris Nikolayevich often, in general, had some kind of democratic instinct at work, I think, to a greater extent than his any opportunistic considerations.

Mikhail Sokolov:

Can we rely on Boris Yeltsin’s democratic convictions, and that’s all?

Ariel Cohen:

I think not only. I think that we can certainly count on them, but still there is a certain political elite in Russia that wants or does not want to continue the democratic form of government, which is outlined in the 1993 Constitution. Although there is an understanding that perhaps the president has too many powers, and that this Constitution needs to be changed peacefully, as they say...

Still, I would like to hope - at the level of personal hope - that parliamentary elections will take place, presidential elections will take place, a normal civilized transfer of power will take place. And at the same time there will be no blood, no suppression, or any other “passion-faces”.

Mikhail Sokolov:

We spoke with Ariel Cohen, a leading expert on Russia at the American Heritage Foundation.

This week the election campaign has also intruded into internal parliamentary life. In the State Duma of Russia they started talking about the creation of a new deputy group and about the money that is involved in this story. I will try to analyze what the emergence of a new group can change in the current election situation.

“People's Deputy” is the name of the newly created parliamentary association. The main characters are former number two in the LDPR Alexander Vengerovsky, zemstvo activist Elena Panina and member of the Russian Regions group, Tyumen resident Gennady Raikov.

The official reason for the implementation of the new project is the coordination of the actions of independent, non-party members of parliament who are seeking the abolition of elections based on party lists in the future. There is a desire not only in the next, but also in this Duma to officially create a group of independent deputies, ostensibly in order to transfer to the new non-party members their legislative initiatives to create the institution of an independent prosecutor or introduce the recall of deputies.

It is unofficially reported that about fifty deputies have now signed up for the creation of a new group, and thirty-five are needed for registration. The group will demand a seat in the Duma Council, whose dictatorship Mr. Raikov is tired of.

Defectors from the LDPR, the NDR, and the People's Power group Nikolai Ryzhkov, who is clearly upset, are being attracted to the new endeavor...

Nikolay Ryzhkov:

The deputy group is official... I believe that it is unrealistic, and unnecessary, and all this is harmful.

Mikhail Sokolov:

But in fact, we are talking, first of all, about the collapse of the “Regions of Russia” group, from where most of the independent recruits are recruited. The leader of the group, Oleg Morozov, one of the organizers of the Fatherland - All Russia coalition, has recently spoken virtually from the party positions of this association.

Other “regionals” not connected with the Moscow mayor’s office or Yevgeny Primakov were clearly annoyed by this. Others, judging by the statements of Oleg Morozov, were helped to make a new choice.

Oleg Morozov:

It’s a very funny sight, because there was experience in creating all sorts of parliamentary groups in the last parliament. With a striking pattern, those deputies who switched to these groups lost the elections miserably, and no one got into the new parliament. In my opinion, this is a certain loss of face.

When a deputy group is created fifty days before the elections, a lot of questions and a lot of suspicions generally arise - what it is, why it is being done and who pays for it.

I don’t think that after this action there will be no less than thirty-five of us. That is, the group will remain.

Even, let’s say, a clinical case - the group broke up. There are so many active deputies in the group, and each of them knows how to use the podium so professionally, that at least we won’t lose the podium.

It seems to me that the time is too short and the distance is too short to use the podium in the other direction. That is, this group that, for some reason, will start to fight with us, or there... with “Fatherland - All Russia”... well, they simply won’t get a platform, they won’t have time.

Mikhail Sokolov:

And who pays for this?

Oleg Morozov:

You know the answer to this question: those who fight with Luzhkov and Primakov, Shaimiev, Morozov pay.

Mikhail Sokolov:

Things are not so harmless. If we remember 1995, before the elections, with the help of the creation of new groups, for example, Stability, Russia's Choice was bled dry, and the united democrats did not get into the State Duma.

The participants in the creation of the People's Deputy group formulate their goal clearly: it is necessary to force the Duma supporters of Luzhkov-Primakov to open up. Vladimir Semago speaks.

Vladimir Semago:

I think that this will push the “Russian Regions” to the idea of throwing out the legal, new flag “Fatherland - All Russia”. The “Russian regions” will have to take on the “post-presidential” function of representing the Primakov-Luzhkov bloc here in the Duma.

Mikhail Sokolov:

Indirectly, the blow is dealt not only to the Primakov-Luzhkov bloc, but also to the Communist Party faction. The new group will include not only former member of the Communist Party faction Vladimir Semago, but also a number of other recent allies of Zyuganov, in particular, the leader of the Spiritual Heritage movement Alexey Podberezkin and a number of his like-minded people.

A support center for independent deputies is being created. They promise to hold an all-Russian meeting of independent candidates for deputies of the new Duma on October 30. And what about the funds, I asked Vladimir Semago.

- Tell me, who finances your project?

Vladimir Semago:

Unfortunately, there is no such direct source of funding. But there is a conviction that if we unite now, perhaps someone will participate in the project in order to support people not only morally, but also financially.

Mikhail Sokolov:

Presidential Administration?

Vladimir Semago:

I don't think. This would be very cool, because this is the most pleasant thing, for example, for me, for a moral person, to receive money from an immoral source and use this money. This, as you remember, is how it was in that campaign in 1995, when they said: “Take the sausage, voters, and vote for the communists.” This is the same option. For me it would be absolutely beautiful. I speak pragmatically, because if the Kremlin gave money for me, I would be incredibly pleased.

Mikhail Sokolov:

But you are on your own, you claimed?

Vladimir Semago:

In principle, those people with whom I talked about the issue of financing... this will, of course, be an extremely complex issue.

Mikhail Sokolov:

The highly moral organizers of the People's Deputy group deny direct ties with Sergei Shoigu's bloc and the Kremlin administration, but what is happening in the Duma is very similar to the creation of the Unity bloc. Then the coalition "Fatherland - All Russia" had a double, a second party of regions. Now a new Duma structure, competing with Morozov’s “Russian regions”, can be formed.