Dr. Ulunyan, please tell me, the depression of the population of Yugoslavia, about which, for example, Aiya Kuga speaks of in his report from Belgrade, you expected such emotions, or, like many, did you think that Kosovo Serbs really begin serious criticism and serious performances against the Miloshevich government?

Artem Ulunyan:

Most likely, now only the first stage of the formation of the exile movement is underway. Of course, people are disoriented. Honestly, from the very beginning it seemed to me that it would be difficult to expect any organization from them. But, as problems will arise, and they have already begun to arise, in particular, with the issue of restoring Yugoslavia - the West refuses to help Yugoslavia under the current regime, there is a real possibility of involving exiles, or forced immigrants, as they say in Russia, in serious political movements. And the question will stand already quite pragmatically, from the point of view of these refugees - they will be interested in which of the opposition leaders will be able to ensure their rights. Ultimately, politicians within Serbia will be able to saddle this movement. As you know, the refugee movement in many Balkan countries was the basis for many radical political movements. It is enough to recall Greece of the 20s, after the Asian disaster, and in Bulgaria it was also quite common.

Savik Shuster:

But, on the other hand, the Kosovo Serbs may even profitably return home, unless, of course, all safety conditions are met, because the EU is ready to pour huge capital there - 500 million euros per year - this is still serious money.

Artem Ulunyan:

Yes, of course, but the question here is not only about money, but also about the life of these people. And here it is very important to know if they can get along with those Albanians who have returned. And at the moment, it seems to me, it is very important to consider their relationship with the political leadership of the Albanian movement and KOA, led by Khashim Tachi, which guaranteed their return. If this happens, which, it seems to me, can be counted with a probability of half a half, then various options are possible. There were cases in the Balkans when regional features won the national. And Kosovo can in this case become such an example.

Savik Shuster:

Politicians in Kosovo, including those whom we consider moderate, continue to insist on the provision of Independence Province. They say that there is a legal basis for such a decision, because at the end of the three -year transition period, which the Albanians themselves call the period of the international protectorate, a referendum must be carried out. The ambitions of these politicians are supported by the fact that the majority of the Albanian population advocate independence. Freedom's questions of Radio Freedom in Skopier was answered by the adviser to the president of the unrecognized Republic of Kosovo and the leader of the temperate Kosovars Edita Taher.

Edit Taher:

Firstly, we, the Albanians, as a non -Slavic people, do not see the reasons for remaining in the Yugoslavia - the Slavic state, especially after all the oppression, murders and genocide, which the Milosevich regime has committed over the Albanian people. Secondly, experiments on the creation of Yugoslavia were undertaken in this century three times, and all of them turned out to be unsuccessful. New international investments in this project are obviously meaningless. It is unlikely that the international community acts wisely, adhering to the principle of the territorial irreversibility of Yugoslavia in this case, because the peoples of the former Yugoslavia proved: when the principle of territorial integrity conflicts with the will of the peoples, the will of the peoples invariably turns out to be stronger. We, Kosovo Albanians, will also achieve independence.

Savik Shuster:

How great are the disagreements in the leadership of the Kosovo Albanians? Is it possible to actually carry out the demilitarization of the COA?

Edit Taher:

Political and military figures Kosovo are united in an effort to achieve independence. Independence as the ultimate goal of our movement and the international protectorate as a transitional option. All disagreements in the Albanian environment are imperious in nature, but in the face of the international community we act as a single delegation of representatives of the Albanian people. Coa is a key military factor in Kosovo, and its future evolution is associated with the choice of an intermediate political status of Kosovo. If this decision will include the right to hold a referendum on the independence of Kosovo, and if there is no binding to maintain the territorial integrity of Yugoslavia, then the Coa is ready to enter the transformation process.

Savik Shuster:

The adviser to Ibrahim Rugova Edita Taher answered the questions of Radio Liberty. Dr. Ulunyan, please tell me, this is such a rather conflicting situation. On the one hand, the Chechen analogy suggests itself, on the other hand, KOA signed an agreement on demilitarization. On the third party, Kosovo leaders are returning to the document in Rambuya, where demilitarization is provided, but, on the other hand, a referendum on the status of Kosovo is also provided. In principle, the situation is very confusing, isn't it?

Artem Ulunyan:

Yes, that's right. Moreover, many analogies, it seems to me, can play their role here. In particular, both the Chechen version and many others who have already existed in the world in one way or another and, perhaps, were even realized. But I see here several possible options for solving this problem and how the situation can develop. The first is the simplest: this is the conservation of the whole situation within Kosovo, while preserving Kosovo as part of Yugoslavia and the creation of local authorities in the dominance of the Albanians. Of course, all this will happen under the control of the peacekeeping contingent. How long it can continue - no one can answer this question. The second possible option for developing the situation is more complicated. In particular, now we can talk about the first stage. The situation is stabilized, questions are already raised about creating their own Albanian administration, maybe even with the participation of those Serbs that can be acceptable for the Albanians, under NATO control, under the control of peacekeepers. But this is only the first stage. The second stage of this situation is, of course, a referendum. No wonder there is such an active struggle on the issue of sectors. In particular, between Russia and the West. This is a rather serious question. This has a perspective, in the sense that the third stage of this situation can occur. In particular, after the referendum on the independence of Kosovo, the question immediately arises of the inviolability of the boundaries or, let's say, the loss of the sovereignty of Yugoslavia over Kosovo. There will immediately arise a lot of all kinds of problems. I do not even exclude that at a certain stage it can even become a military problem, because when the peacekeepers entered Kosovo, they talked about the preservation of Yugoslav sovereignty and the inviolability of the borders. There is another third option, which, it seems to me, also cannot be excluded. This is the existence of a constant explosive area in the Balkans, where everyone will try to seize their piece, to achieve some power. Given that the Albanian movement is heterogeneous, even some specific regionalization is possible, when each of the leaders try to seize their part and establish their own orders, while the peacekeepers will not be able to reconcile them. It should be borne in mind that there will be conglomerates of the Serbs living there, who will also try to create some kind of formations, and the picture arises quite non-sufficiently, since sooner or later people will take up weapons. Therefore, it is already necessary at this stage to think about what will happen to Kosovo, precisely from the point of view of international law.

He was a Moscow Balkanist, an employee of the Russian Institute of General History, Dr. Artem Ulunyan.