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War
1543rd day. The largest US bank predicted the “Finnish scenario” for the future of Ukraine. Kyiv will lose part of its territories, but will retain sovereignty
Since February 24, 2022, Meduza has been broadcasting live about the Russian-Ukrainian war. We publish your letters every day because we are sure that we need to continue talking about the war. Share with us your thoughts about the war. What feelings are you experiencing? How does war affect your life and your attitude towards the world? If you have a story related to the war, tell it . The feedback form is at the end of this article. A review of the previous day can be read here .
Ukraine
The JPMorganChase Center for Geopolitics has published a report ( .pdf ) with five scenarios for the future of Ukraine. According to analysts, a full-scale Russian-Ukrainian war will most likely end according to the “Finnish scenario.” The authors of the report consider this scenario to be the basic and most likely scenario at the moment (50%).
The “Finnish scenario” is essentially a repetition of Finland’s path before the country joined NATO. In 1944, the country ceded about 10% of its territory to the USSR, and then for decades maintained its sovereignty and orientation towards the West, despite the lack of formal Western security guarantees and foreign troops on its territory. In 2022, after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, Finland joined NATO.
“While no analogy is perfect, we see a similar outcome for Ukraine—one in which sovereignty and Western orientation are preserved, but the world does not become completely just or safe,” the report’s authors note.
The “Finnish” option, according to JPMorganChase, will look like this: Ukraine cedes part of its territory, but retains its sovereignty and strategic direction. The country is rebuilding its army, investing in industry and gradually integrating into Europe economically and politically. At the same time, formal membership of Ukraine in NATO remains impossible in the near future. Also, Kyiv may have to engage in some “strategic self-restraint” so as not to provoke Moscow. But over time, Ukraine strengthens its own deterrent capabilities and deepens its orientation toward the West—eventually joining the EU and, potentially, NATO in the coming decades.
The first report with scenarios for the future of Ukraine was presented by the JPMorganChase Center for Geopolitics in 2025. At that time, analysts considered the “Georgian option” to be the basic option for Ukraine. Under this option, in their opinion, Ukraine, after the war with Russia, would not receive reliable security guarantees, would remain unstable - and over time would find itself in Russia’s sphere of influence. Now, the analysts themselves note, they are revising their base scenario “for improvement.” The Georgia scenario is now estimated at 30% by JPMorganChase.
Among other scenarios, as last year, “Belarus” and “South Korea” are considered the least likely (5% each) - the worst and best scenarios for Ukraine. The probability of the “Israel” scenario in the new report is estimated at 10%. Below is a brief description of each of them:
- "Belarus". The United States is ending support for Ukraine, and Europe cannot compensate for the departure of a key ally. Russia wins the war, achieves the fulfillment of its maximalist demands, effectively turns Ukraine into a vassal state, and also splits the West.
- "Israel". Ukraine receives long-term military and economic support from the United States without the presence of foreign troops on its territory. It will have to remain a militarized state, constantly ready for a new war.
- "South Korea". Ukraine is seeking NATO membership or security guarantees from the United States. European troops are stationed on its territory to contain Russia. In this scenario, 80% of the territory of Ukraine, which remains under the control of Kyiv, will receive a stable and democratic development trajectory. The war with Russia, like the conflict between North and South Korea, remains frozen.
As the authors of the report note, the outcome of the war can be changed by a number of factors, many of which are not in favor of Ukraine. For example, the developing conflict with Iran could divert Western attention, resources, and political capital at a critical time for Kyiv.
War in photographs. Memorial near a house in Kyiv destroyed by a Russian strike
War through the eyes of Meduza readers
How we choose letters
Meduza's readers live in different countries and have different attitudes towards the war. We publish your letters to see this event through your eyes. Our editors try to present all points of view, even if they do not coincide with the editorial position. However, in accordance with the Meduza code, we do not publish messages that contain “hate speech,” justify the murder of civilians, or express direct support for an aggressive war.
Nadezhda (Russia) . I am an adult, from the USSR. She lived in the holy confidence that Russians and war are incompatible at the genetic level. This means that both now and initially did not support this nasty war and the nasty guarantor.
The country has been reduced to bare b****. There is no industry (with the exception of the military-industrial complex, for now), no agriculture. Complete dependence on imports. We are boosting the Chinese economy. But they decided to teach another sovereign state how to live. Honestly, if I had the opportunity, I would leave the country - and I’m not sure that I would miss Russian birch trees. I'm scared to realize that we are killing people and dying ourselves. It’s even more painful because it’s unclear when and how this will all end. Destroyed settlements, dead citizens, mutilated participants, who, when and if they return, [it is unknown] what else they will present to us. We will be hated for a very long time, and our children and grandchildren will not be able to wash themselves off. For what purposes?
The Z-position of many Russian citizens is even more surprising. People, don't you see what's happening? The stated goals have been achieved exactly the opposite. How to live with this?