Killer flu

The best virologists on earth gathered in Malta, trying to imagine what the next deadly influenza pandemic would look like. And they found out: the human body can cope
will not be able to deal with it, because the mutant virus is similar to the famous “Spanish flu” that wiped out
in 1918 there were tens of millions in Europe alone.

Young people will be the first victims

In terms of mortality, that outbreak was not even reminiscent of the flu, but of Ebola fever or the medieval plague. The total number of victims of the “Spanish flu” reached 40 million people, and according to some sources - as many as 50. Moreover, a significant part of the deaths occurred within the first few weeks after the outbreak of the pestilence.
The virus originated in the port cities of Europe, thanks to which it quickly spread throughout the world. He killed everyone indiscriminately - men and women, children and old people. Hundreds of fresh graves appeared in cemeteries every day. The whole world seemed to be in mourning. Funeral processions stretched endlessly along city streets and country roads.
Death came at hurricane speed. A person could be absolutely healthy in the morning, fall ill by noon, and by nightfall they were already preparing for the funeral. Those who did not die in the first days died from complications caused by the flu - for example, from pneumonia. But the Spanish flu had another very unusual feature: it often struck young people in the prime of life, which is not very typical for ordinary flu. Since then, pandemics have occurred regularly - and always claimed a huge number of victims.
The current uproar arose after an analogue of the “Spanish flu”, the causative agent of the “New Caledonian flu”, which is especially dangerous for people under 43 years of age, was discovered in Hong Kong (Hong Kong). An outbreak of this type of influenza occurred in those places in 1997 and seemed to be successfully extinguished. But four people were recently admitted to Hong Kong's Queen Mary Hospital, stricken by a virus very similar to the one defeated five years ago. An attempt to determine the source of infection led nowhere - the sick people had nothing in common. Vice-President of the Hong Kong Medical Association Luo Winlock immediately announced the possibility of an epidemic not only in Hong Kong, but throughout the world. According to him, the New Caledonian flu virus has most likely changed and will now require a new vaccine to combat it. It is unclear whether it will be created on time. The virus is currently being studied.
Russia, if the worst assumptions of doctors come true, will also not stand aside.
“The situation is very alarming now,” Mels Turyanov, the chief virologist of the Ministry of Health, shared with Sobesednik. — Although no new forms of the influenza virus, including relatives of the Spanish flu, have been recorded in Russia at the moment, we need to be on guard. Sooner or later the pandemic will come, it cannot be avoided. Perhaps we will live peacefully this year, but we can no longer vouch for the next one.
According to the chief Russian virologist, the insidiousness of the flu is that over time, resistance to it decreases. And the complications are becoming more and more serious.

The fever is breaking
off your feet

As a rule, severe forms of influenza are distinguished primarily by the suddenness and severity of the symptoms of the disease. The temperature jumps sharply to 40 degrees, a severe fever begins - the disease literally knocks you off your feet, like cholera or the already mentioned plague. Cheerful and cheerful just an hour ago, a person will go to bed, and it remains to be seen whether he will ever get out of it. The extreme stickiness of the infection completes the matter, adding more work to the undertakers.
In addition to the Spanish flu, several other types of influenza have been very successful in combating overpopulation of the planet. The so-called “Asian flu” appeared to the world in 1957-1958. The pandemic began in February 1957 in the Far East and quickly spread throughout the world. In the US alone, more than 70,000 people died during this outbreak.
In 1968-1969, a wave of “Hong Kong flu” swept across the world. Its consequences were assessed as average, since the “guest from the East” killed “only” 33,800 people. In this case, the main victims were elderly people: most of the victims were about 65 years old.
The mildest pandemic was caused by the “Russian flu” in 1977-1978. Originating somewhere in Southern China (by the way, the flu for some reason always comes from the Asian side), it raged there for several months, then spread across Japan. But no one guessed that this could be a pandemic. The alarm was sounded only when the flu spread to the territory of our Far East. Soon, domestic virologists “declassified” it and created a vaccine that, at the very least, helps to resist the monster. Thus, in areas where the infection had not yet penetrated, the disease was prevented.
But just last winter, this infection pretty much battered the Italians, Belgians and French. The strength of the “Russian flu” was its surprise. It differs from all other relatives in that the vaccine against it, immediately after the outbreak begins, for some reason practically stops working. And those who are not vaccinated in advance end up in a hospital bed, or even worse.
As you can see, there were few pandemics, but the epidemics never stopped.
“On top of everything else, the disease has one more feature,” continues Turyanov. — It has been noticed: after most people have had some form of it, the pathogen disappears. But sometimes after many years it can appear again. By that time, the generation that dealt with it will be replaced by another, completely defenseless against the virus.

The main source of infection is birds

Nobody knows for sure where the virus waits for the right moment for the next attack. Presumably, such a place could be areas of equatorial Africa. In those places, the flu circulates quite actively and, interestingly, very smoothly. The incidence of influenza there is not seasonal - a native can catch it at any time, and there are no epidemic outbreaks.
As scientists have established, the flu was inherited from our smaller brothers.
“Initially, it was not inherent in humans,” Dmitry Lvov, director of the Research Institute of Virology, told Interlocutor. “It appeared from the animal world a long time ago, tens of thousands of years ago. In England, epidemics were studied with special attention, and there it was noticed that outbreaks were always accompanied by diseases of livestock - horses, pigs. And Russian doctors who served in the middle of the 19th century on the territory of the Bukhara Emirate described an unknown type of disease that arose among nomads. They noticed that the epidemic began after one of the tribes had accumulated a lot of horses. The problem continued to be studied, and it gradually became clear that the main source of the infection was birds. By the way, the flu rages even more fiercely among them than among us. In 1961, an avian influenza virus killed almost the entire population of Arctic terns.
The forecast of the Institute of Virology does not inspire much optimism. According to Lvov, about a year ago in Eastern Siberia, specialists monitoring the circulation of influenza among animals isolated a new virus that could well serve as the source of another pandemic. It was found in the blood of muskrats. The infection, as scientists have established, is easily transmitted to mice, and therefore can easily reach humans. Fortunately, scientists still have time to create a vaccine, which means there is hope that the history of 1918 will not repeat itself.
Nadezhda Guzheva.


PS
Humanity has known influenza for at least 2,500 years; Hippocrates described a similar disease. Multiple descriptions of influenza epidemics occur in the Middle Ages. Throughout modern times, it remained a serious problem for most countries of the world. But people still haven’t learned how to really fight this disease.
The predicted mortality rate as a result of simple flu or complications in Russia ranges from 7 to 14 thousand people per year. In the event of a pandemic, up to 120 million people will become virus carriers. 60 million of them will get sick. At least 200 thousand people will die.