"Powerful screen"

Is Putin’s falling ratings a chance for the systemic opposition, or is it better for it to keep a low profile?

The Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation has certified the federal list of candidates of the Yabloko party for the elections of State Duma deputies, as well as the list of candidates for single-mandate electoral districts. The party itself considers its admission or non-admission to the elections themselves to be a political decision.

Before the Duma elections, the Kremlin intensified its campaign against Yabloko. In June, the court sentenced the deputy chairman of the party, Maxim Kruglov, to seven years in a general regime colony in the case of disseminating “fakes” about the Russian army. Deputy Chairman of the party Lev Shlosberg is a defendant in two criminal cases: about “discrediting” the army and about spreading “fake news.” On May 27, the court extended his period of detention.

Elections to the State Duma will be held from September 18 to 20, 2026. Documents have now been submitted to the CEC by all parliamentary parties - the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, United Russia, Liberal Democratic Party of Russia, A Just Russia and New People, as well as several non-parliamentary parties, including not only Yabloko, but also the Russian Party of Pensioners for Social Justice, the Rodina and Communists of Russia parties.

According to the head of the Central Election Commission, Ella Pamfilova , this year her department is preparing to put up a “powerful barrier” against “enemies” in the elections.

Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin's ratings are falling again. According to the state-run VTsIOM, the approval rate for the president’s activities is 66.0% compared to 66.9% a week earlier.

The fuel crisis is in full swing, problems in the economy are growing, and a full-scale war is already in its fifth year. At the same time, Putin himself openly said at the United Russia congress that the party’s task is to fight “to victory.”

Can these Duma elections be considered a “referendum on war”? Will the systemic opposition be able to capitalize on Putin's falling ratings, or is it a dangerous game? We are talking about this with politician Maxim Reznik and political analyst Sergei Shelin .

The authorities allowed the only Russian political party to participate in the elections to the State Duma of the Russian Federation, which is going to them with the anti-war slogan “For Peace and Freedom.” At the same time, dozens of Yabloko activists who publicly spoke out against the war were detained or arrested. State sociological services VTsIOM and FOM again record a drop in Vladimir Putin’s rating and an increase in Russians’ anxiety about the war.

Why did the Russian authorities decide to allow the Yabloko party to participate in the elections, and whether they will allow it to represent Russians opposed to the war, argues political analyst Sergei Shelin :

I would not take the outcome of these elections too seriously - the Russian State Duma has never been the center of decision-making

– I am glad that Yabloko is on the way to participate in these State Duma elections. Although this issue, as I understand it, has not yet been finally resolved. Of course, I would advise any Russian who may participate in elections in Russia to vote for Yabloko. But I would not take the results of these elections too seriously, based on the fact that the Russian State Duma has never been the center of decision-making. The results of how people vote are unlikely to translate into changes in regime policy. As for the positions of the United Russia party, at whose congress Vladimir Putin called for continuing the war, this party cannot have any opinion of its own. This is a fake structure. Her position is Putin’s position.

As far as one can judge, Putin is now secretly bargaining with someone, but is trying to continue the war. Perhaps he is not very well informed about its progress, or maybe he simply does not feel sorry for anyone. And he is going to continue it at least until the fall, until these notorious elections. And then everyone is waiting for different turns of events - starting from some mobilization measures after the elections, because it is inconvenient to do this before them, to some attempts to finally stop the war. I do not rule out that the outcome of these elections will be taken into account by the authorities to some extent, but I do not think that voting for Yabloko can somehow change the situation. I’m afraid that the Russian public has forgotten about this party, and now it has low ratings,” believes Sergei Shelin.

Will Russians hear the anti-war slogans of the Yabloko party if it is actually allowed to participate in the autumn elections to the State Duma, and will the Russian authorities take their votes into account? Politician Maxim Reznik says:

This special election operation has the usual purpose of demonstrating the unity of the nation.

– Participation in these elections is an act of specific people and the party as a whole. This is happening in conditions when obvious signals were given to Yabloko, criminal cases were opened against activists, people are in prison, including deputy chairman of the party Maxim Kruglov. It was obvious that Yabloko’s plans to speak out under the slogan “For Peace and Freedom” were absolutely perpendicular to the plan of the Kremlin and dictator Putin. This special election operation pursues the usual goal - it is necessary to demonstrate the unity of the nation, it is necessary to demonstrate unity around the flag, to demonstrate that the war is being fought in the name of the people and in general, despite all the difficulties, the people share this idea.

The question of this whole procedure, which is called elections, is whether people will be able to find an opportunity to express their attitude to what is happening through voting. This is the main result of this entire procedure. It is clear that the numbers will be drawn in advance. The more you draw, the more complex the classifiers work, but they have worked out these mechanisms a long time ago. But if, as a result of this procedure, no unity of the Fuhrer and the nation is demonstrated, but it is demonstrated that the king is naked and the people want peace, then participation in these elections has a completely practical meaning. Of course, the Central Election Commission and Ella Pamfilova have nothing to do with Yabloko’s admission. This is an absolutely politically planned story. How the party will be able to fit into this direction, and what public demand there will be for this, we will have to see in the near future,” says Maxim Reznik.

In addition to the ruling party "United Russia", the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia, "A Just Russia", "New People", "Yabloko", the Democratic Party of Russia, the Greens, the Communists of Russia, the "Party for Justice!", the Progress Party, the Russian Party of Freedom and Justice, the Pensioners Party, "Rodina", the Cossack Party of Russia, the Revival Party of Russia and the Direct Democracy Party will take part in the elections to the State Duma.

Sergey Shelin believes that all parties taking part in the State Duma elections, one way or another, are pro-government and support the Kremlin’s policies, but until the fall they will allow themselves slight criticism of him:

All these parties are a political puppet theater, controlled by our Karabas-Barabas

– Of course, all these parties are a political puppet theater, controlled by our Karabas-Barabas. It is now almost impossible to be an independent public politician in today's Russia, because you need to strictly follow the instructions of the presidential administration. She moves some people forward slightly, and pushes others back a little. Let’s say there is a party called “New People” who look liberal, although they are also part of the puppet theater. Their rating is now at the level of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation and the Liberal Democratic Party. That is, in principle, if they are not disturbed, they can even come out in second place after the official game.

Apparently, this would be too much, but that’s what makes them good for their superiors - you can order them, and they will shut up or change their views. The most interesting thing in these elections is how tense the people themselves, the voters, will be. If they are very anxious, and if they want to somehow give signals that they are unhappy, then they will somehow give these signals. Perhaps this is what is interesting, and not the so-called politicians themselves, who do not represent any power and do not evoke any serious attitude, Sergei Shelin is sure.