Everything is not going according to plan

Creeping mobilization - across Russia: The Kremlin is losing captured Ukrainian territories and is looking for people

The Kremlin funds organizations that search for and recruit future participants in the war in Ukraine. The Insider reviewed court documents, NGO reports, procurement requests and internal materials from recruiting agencies.

In Russia, a whole profession of recruiters has appeared, who call men using purchased databases and receive for each person who signed a contract, from several hundred thousand to one and a quarter million rubles, writes the publication “Vorstka”.

There are clearly not enough people at the front. Last week, Vladimir Putin signed a decree to increase the size of the Russian army. The Kremlin has increased the size of the Russian army for the fourth time in a year.

Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky believes that Russia has already begun additional mobilization and has increased the pace of military recruitment.

Ivan Chuvilyaev, press secretary of “Go Through the Woods,” notes that now, especially in the regions, men are actively forced to sign contracts, and the so-called “raids” with subsequent coercion to sign a contract are not decreasing.

Politician Andrei Pivovarov in his report “Mobilization Today and Tomorrow” writes that hidden mobilization through contracts gives the army more people than open one.

At the same time, things are not as successful for the Russian army at the front as Vladimir Putin reports. The American Institute for the Study of War reports not only a decrease in the pace of the Russian offensive in September, but also the loss of 80 square kilometers of previously captured territory. Russia has lost more territory in Ukraine than in any other month since June 2023, the Finnish OSINT project Black Bird Group sums up the results of September.

We talk about the situation at the front and the search for resources and people to continue the war that has started with politician Andrei Pivovarov and military expert Nikolai Mitrokhin .

The recruitment system for the Russian army has been significantly improved compared to 2022, and now the authorities can easily mobilize 400–450 thousand people per year. For those who do not want to go to war, the window for escaping Russia is measured in hours. These are the main conclusions of the report "Mobilization Today and Tomorrow", presented by politicians and human rights activists.

Should Russians expect a second wave of mobilization after the State Duma elections, and why does the army need new soldiers, says military analyst Nikolai Mitrokhin :

The Russian army needs reinforcements because it is now retreating in several areas

-Of course, the Russian army needs replenishment, because now it is retreating in several areas. The successes of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are largely due to the elementary lack of fighters in Russian units. The “West”, “North”, and, possibly, “East” groups have such problems, since they have been advancing for several years and have spent all their human reserves. Of course, sooner or later it will be necessary to carry out broader mobilization than now.

And if a public mobilization is announced, it will be on a solid state basis. All the same, there is a part of the population in Russia that easily agrees to some government orders and announcements. You can simply send out subpoenas and collect as many as you need. Moreover, Putin will address the people, and 200 thousand people will gather in this way quite easily. The rest can be collected using more brutal methods, Nikolai Mitrokhin is sure.

Why is Russia improving mechanisms for mobilization, and what is its likelihood after the elections? – said one of the authors of the report “Mobilization Today and Tomorrow,” politician Andrei Pivovarov :

They prepared both in terms of laws and in terms of electronic control procedures

-We are saying that the mechanism that Russia has built regarding mobilization is much more extensive than 4 years ago. They prepared both in terms of laws and in terms of electronic control procedures. And what’s important is that they also built towns and training grounds where they could train people, which was something that was missing during the first mobilization. Therefore, we are saying that preparations are underway, and this is not just preparation for the mobilization of 300 thousand people. They can dial them easily. But the difference is that now they can be collected within a few days, and then within a few weeks this daily amount can be doubled or tripled. This is what is causing concern. That is, they are ready for mobilization.

Recently, Putin signed a document on another increase in the size of the army to 1 million 535 thousand. But what is interesting is that the current composition of the army is smaller. That is, in fact, a reserve is being made for those people who are mobilized. This can be seen from the structure that is being built - these are military camps in which the construction battalion operates. The construction battalion first appeared in the army only last year. That is, the structure that the army has now is capable of digesting these 300 thousand or more. That is, a more serious set is being prepared. I don’t want to say that it will be right tomorrow. But the system is ready to accept people under it even tomorrow. At the same time, they took into account all the mistakes of the previous mobilization. And now their task is not just to call up 300 thousand people in a few days, but not to give the rest the opportunity to leave and try to call up many times more. Therefore, there is no need to relax, says Andrei Pivovarov.

According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russia lost at least 81 square meters in September. km at the front. This completely contradicts Vladimir Putin's statements that Russian troops are advancing successfully. He made such statements at a meeting of the Valdai Club.
What is really happening on the Russian-Ukrainian front, and will possible mobilization help the Russian side, says military analyst Nikolai Mitrokhin :

Plans for Russian autumn offensive thwarted

-The success of Operation Vivaldi and plus the offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from Slavyansk to the east suggests that the plans for the Russian autumn offensive have been thwarted. Until winter, Russian troops will not be able to approach the edge of the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration. Thus, a new serious advance of the Russian army is postponed for at least six months. This is provided that the Russian army retains the resources that it currently has. If, for example, in November they mobilize and supply the Yug group, which is operating against Slavyansk, with an additional 100 thousand fighters, then everything will turn around. It is quite possible that in December Russian troops will fight in the eastern quarters of Slavyansk, believes Nikolai Mitrokhin.

Two-thirds of Russians, according to the Levada Center, would support Vladimir Putin if he decided to stop the war against Ukraine. Does this affect the future plans of the authorities? – says politician Andrei Pivovarov:

Putin hasn’t had victories for a long time, and he needs to report that the army has taken another city, the name of which no one knows

-This is one of the factors that will be on the table, but at the same time there is another factor on the table - these are the election numbers. If you remember, before the elections, Putin personally turned to people for words of support, he encouraged them to go to the polls, and when the elections were over, the head of the Security Council and one of the top officials of the United Russia party, Dmitry Medvedev, said that he was grateful to people for the choice to make, including unpopular decisions. This factor may be much more significant, because in fact, from the point of view of formal figures announced by the head of the Central Election Commission Ella Pamfilova, Putin’s course is supported. He said that “you vote for the guys who are at the front,” and this course will continue.

Putin needs some victories, he needs some kind of demonstration of strength, given that the generals are trampling, but he won the elections, and he needs to continue to win. So the decision on mobilization will be made at least based on this. It must be admitted that Putin has not had victories for a long time, and he needs to report that the army has taken another city, the name of which no one knows. Therefore, Putin needs some formal reason to, if not stop the war, then at least freeze it. He understands that the US administration will soon change, and it is not a fact that he will be able to establish relations with the future administration that will come after Trump. If these are democrats, it will be much more difficult for Putin to end this conflict while saving face, says Andrei Pivovarov.