A fortress under threat

A year after reaching Pokrovsk, Russian forces appear ready to launch a full assault

Like our earlier reports on the combat situation in Ukraine, this article takes stock of the recent developments on the battlefield based on open-source information. Meduza has condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine from the very start, and our detailed military analyses are part of our commitment to objective reporting on a war we firmly oppose.

Our map is based exclusively on open-source photos and videos, most of them posted by eyewitnesses on social media. We collect available evidence and determine its geolocation markers, adding only the photos and videos that clear this process. Meduza doesn’t try to track the conflict in real time; the data reflected on the map are typically at least 48 hours old.

Key updates as of July 31, 2025

Exactly one year ago, as Ukraine’s Armed Forces (AFU) were finalizing preparations for an incursion into Russia’s Kursk region, Russian troops broke through Ukrainian defenses near the village of Prohres, west of Avdiivka, and began advancing toward Pokrovsk. But the city itself wasn’t the actual target — the maneuver in its direction served as a diversion. The true objective was southern Donbas.

Still, the threat to Pokrovsk hasn’t passed. Today, Russian forces are on the city’s outskirts. Reconnaissance units are entering from the south, while another Russian group is attempting to approach from the north in a bid to cut the city off from the northern part of Donbas.

This isn’t the only danger the Ukrainian army faces. Russian troops are also pushing northward through the same breach in defenses east of Pokrovsk. Their main objective may be to reach the Kramatorsk–Sloviansk agglomeration. Capturing those cities would carry major political weight for the Kremlin, as it would allow Moscow to declare full control over the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to hold large forces in the country’s northeast, where it is trying to repel a Russian group that crossed into the Sumy region.

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Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka

In mid-July, Russian forces captured part of the village of Novoekonomichne and, further north, advanced toward Rodynske on the Pokrovsk–Dobropillia road. This created a threat of encirclement for the Pokrovsk–Myrnohrad agglomeration from the north. If Rodynske falls, Pokrovsk will be connected to the rest of Ukraine by just one route — the road to Dnipro. That single line may not be sufficient to supply Ukrainian forces if Pokrovsk comes under attack.

Russia is preparing for just such an assault. Its forces are expanding their control along the city’s southern outskirts and sending reconnaissance teams into Pokrovsk itself. Despite Ukrainian counterattacks earlier this spring, Russian troops have held onto a bridgehead west of the city, in the area of Kotlyne and Udachne. If an assault begins from there, they could move toward the Pokrovsk–Dnipro road, threatening to completely encircle the city.

Between Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka, Russian troops are advancing not only around Pokrovsk but also northward, toward Druzhkivka and Dobropillia. After capturing part of Poltavka and pushing toward Volodymyrivka, they’re aiming for the Dobropillia–Druzhkivka road near the village of Shakhove. The likely end goal is to reach Kramatorsk. But given the current pace of the offensive, that seems unlikely to happen before 2026.

Russia is also advancing toward the city of Kostiantynivka, which could soon face attacks from three sides. To the west, a Russian group that captured Yablunivka in late July is continuing to attack along the Pokrovsk–Bakhmut highway. From the east, Russian units that have taken most of Chasiv Yar and the village of Stupochky are advancing. And the forces that captured the village of Bila Hora last week are now closing in from the south.

At present, Ukraine doesn’t have enough forces in the area to block attacks from all of these directions.

Dnipropetrovsk region border

South of Pokrovsk, the AFU are also facing a shortage of personnel. Russian troops continue their offensive in the southern part of Donbas, at the junction of the Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk regions. The attacks are unfolding in multiple directions: west of Velyka Novosilka, forces from Russia’s “Vostok” contingent have taken the villages of Temyrivka and Maliivka, though Ukrainian units have launched counterattacks in an effort to reclaim the lost ground. Similar episodes have played out on this stretch of the front before, but the counterattacks have only ever managed to temporarily slow Russia’s advance.

North of Velyka Novosilka, troops from the “Vostok” contingent have captured Zelenyi Hai and reached the Vovcha River. Ukrainian forces will likely attempt to establish a defensive line along the river’s northern bank. However, troops from Russia’s “Tsentr” contingent already hold a bridgehead on that bank, near the village of Dachne. It’s likely that Russian forces will try to cross the Vovcha along a broad front and advance toward Novopavlivka in the Dnipropetrovsk region.

Sumy

Ukrainian forces are continuing efforts to push Russian troops out of the Sumy region and back into Russia’s Kursk region. They’re attacking along the western flank, near the villages of Kindrativka and Oleksiivka. After redeploying assault units to this area, Ukrainian troops managed to retake parts of both villages, though their advance has been slowed by constant Russian airstrikes. Based on open-source footage, Russian aircraft are using dozens of glide bombs each day along this short, several-kilometer-long stretch of the front.

Despite Ukraine’s renewed pressure, Russian forces are still advancing on the eastern flank, near the Sudzha–Sumy highway. They’ve expanded their control in Yunakivka and have captured the village of Yablunivka.

Other parts of the front

Russian forces continue a localized offensive near the former shoreline of the Kakhovka Reservoir, south of Zaporizhzhia. After taking the village of Kamyanske, they advanced to the outskirts of Stepnohirsk. The city of Zaporizhzhia lies about 25 kilometers (15.5 miles) away. While the Russian grouping currently lacks the strength to launch a direct assault on the city, these new positions could serve as a staging ground for a larger offensive in the future. In the meantime, the attacks may force Ukraine’s command to divert scarce reserves to the area.

In the Kharkiv region, Russian troops operating from a bridgehead on the western bank of the Oskil River have reached the northern outskirts of Kupyansk and are attempting to break through to the Kupyansk–Kharkiv highway. The likely objective is to capture Kupyansk — along with the Ukrainian army’s sizable bridgehead on the river’s eastern bank — before the end of the year.

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Meduza’s Razbor (“Explainers”) team