What will happen to the food?

No fish, no meat
There won't be until the end of the crisis
According to the most optimistic estimates, only half of the food sold in Russia is of domestic origin. The sharp rise in the dollar exchange rate and the collapse of the banking system led to a complete cessation of imported food supplies to Russia. There will be no hunger. But unless a miracle happens, by the beginning of December the majority of the country's citizens will be eating only bread and potatoes.

The work of all importers, regardless of the type of imported goods, turnover or specifics of operations, is possible if two necessary conditions are met. Firstly, the presence of a foreign exchange market with a daily volume of at least $50 million. Secondly, the proper functioning of the banking system: the importer must be able to transfer fees for supplies abroad and receive money from its regional buyers.
Currently, both of these conditions are not met. As a result, importers and foreign manufacturers cannot not only make new supplies to Russia, but also sell off old stocks already in warehouses here. Any active actions are fraught with large losses. All “foreigners” or their Russian representatives (i.e., importers) either suspended shipments for a while (Mars, Nestle, etc.) or sent employees on administrative leave (Pepsi Co or RJR). Only Coca-Cola operated in the previous mode.
A lull in the food market can have very disastrous consequences. In just a month or a month and a half, the population may lose not only chocolate, cola or cigarettes, but also much more necessary goods for life.

Chickens and fish
The most difficult situation is with the two cheapest sources of protein - fish and chicken.
Almost all chicken meat is imported to Russia from the USA. Last year, importers imported about 1 million tons of chicken (with a consumption volume of 1.2-1.3 million tons). This year they managed to import only 500 thousand tons. Now in the warehouses of the largest importers who supplied the whole country with chicken (primarily Frozen Foods, Baltic Group and Europroduct), there is a stock for 1-2 months of work, which is being sold out in small parts. The proceeds from its sale go to pay for the rent of offices and warehouses, salaries, etc.
According to the president of Frozen Foods Pavel Svirsky, it takes at least two months to deliver new batches of goods: American agricultural producers, after our country reduced purchases, refocused on other markets. In other words, if suddenly the financial crisis subsides tomorrow, chicken from new supplies will not reach us until mid-November. Let us remember that by this time supplies will be running out, and low-income segments of the population have every chance of being left without a basic consumer product. In 1996, when the Department of Veterinary Medicine of the Ministry of Agriculture and Food temporarily banned the import of chicken meat from the United States, spontaneous demonstrations by pensioners took place in some cities in central Russia, demanding to leave “Bush’s legs” alone.
Perhaps chicken from Europe will save the situation for a while, but it is significantly more expensive. There is nothing that can completely replace American chicken. Russian producers are in an extremely difficult situation. Despite all the efforts of both Russian meat processors (in particular, the Cherkizovo meat processing plant) and American companies that have invested considerable funds in Russian poultry factories, there is nothing to boast about yet. Last year, the industry produced only about 200 thousand tons of poultry meat. So, if the crisis continues, there will be six times less chicken in stores. One can only guess about prices.
A similar situation is observed with fish. Last year, 4.7 million tons of fish were caught in Russia, and 14.6 million tons were eaten (total volume, including fish products). True, the period for resuming supplies in this case is much shorter - according to experts, it will take no more than three weeks. Taking into account the stocks that are currently in warehouses, the fish market in crisis conditions can last another two to three months.

Meat
No less problems await lovers of meat and meat products. Now Russia imports about 30% of the meat consumed (this year - 840-950 thousand tons versus 1,300 thousand tons of meat produced in Russia). Since mid-August, meat supplies have stopped, and this has already been felt by large meat processing plants in Moscow and St. Petersburg, working on imported raw materials. Due to the difficult situation, the main suppliers of this product to Russia (there was a large-scale flood in China, and most European agricultural producers lost government subsidies) did not have the opportunity to make large-scale stocks for the summer. So some plants may shut down in the coming days, and the capital will be left without meat products.
The situation on the periphery is also not pleasant. The meat products market there is controlled by importers who supply cheap and low-quality sausages from Poland, Denmark and other European countries. With the onset of the crisis, imports of these goods, as well as meat, ceased. So the regions can only rely on small meat processing plants that use local raw materials. However, their market share does not exceed 20%. What will happen in place of the remaining 80% is still unclear. According to wholesalers, the regional meat products market will not be restored in the foreseeable future. In the future, the vacated space may be taken by the capital's meat processing plants, which already control the markets of large cities and, before the start of the crisis, intended to storm the regions. But this will happen only after the plants find a new raw material base.
With fresh meat the situation is a little better. Now its supply in commercial quantities in many regions of Russia has also been stopped. Nevertheless, it will be possible to restore sales to previous volumes 2-3 weeks after the situation has stabilized.
If the crisis continues, there will be less meat by 30%, and sausages and other meat products by 50-80%. Of course, you can put domestic cows under the knife. But we already have a little cattle left - 33 million heads compared to 52.2 million in 1993. And it is simply dangerous to lower the population below the current level. Moreover, we already depend on Western supplies of milk and dairy products by an average of 28% (with annual consumption of 39 million tons). By the way, in connection with the crisis and the cessation of imports, feel free to subtract an adequate amount of milk and its processed products from your diet for an indefinite period of time - for example, 50% butter and 30% fermented milk products.

Grocery
The most successful grocery product in terms of sales - pasta - has already disappeared from store shelves. Importers unanimously declare that they are not yet planning to import new shipments or sell off what has already been imported to Russia. According to Kommersant's information, importers' warehouses now have a month and a half supply of pasta, which will be immediately put on sale once the situation stabilizes. However, Russian factories are also in a hurry to start active activities. The Moscow factory "Extra M", not having time to purchase plastic packaging, even began selling pasta by weight, packing it in cardboard boxes. True, despite all the efforts of Russian producers, they are unlikely to be able to save the country from a pasta shortage.
All Russian factories now produce about 400-450 thousand tons of pasta per year. Another 350-360 thousand are supplied to the market from importers. With the complete withdrawal of foreign products from the market, Russian factories will be able to increase production volume by a maximum of 100 thousand tons. Where can they get another 250-300 thousand tons (and this is more than a third of the required volume), for now dont clear.
The most favorable situation in the sugar market. Sugar reserves as of August 1 amount to 2.2 million tons. Sugar beet harvesting began in Krasnodar in mid-August, and in Central Russia from August 1. According to experts, taking into account beet sugar, Russia has about 3.5 million tons of sugar in the second half of the year. Given that the country's monthly demand is about 300-350 thousand tons, there will be enough sugar until the end of the year. However, it is not yet clear at what prices it will go on sale. Before the crisis, a ton of sugar cost $480. However, now the population or industrial consumers of sugar are unlikely to be able to pay that kind of money.

We will eat bread, cereals and potatoes
All of the above forecasts are made on the condition that Russian food producers will operate as before the crisis. But no one can guarantee this. So there may be less food produced in Russia. However, there is no need to panic. There will be no hunger. Despite the fantastically unfavorable weather conditions, the current harvest of bread, other grains and root crops will last for a year.
According to operational data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Food, as of September 7, 34 million tons of grain were threshed (last year, at the beginning of September, 62 million tons were threshed). 26 million hectares of crops have been mowed, that is, about half. The delay is due to rain in most of the agricultural regions of Russia and a lack of fuel and lubricants. The general director of the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies, Viktor Khlystun, claims that 57-58 million tons will be collected (in 1997 - 89 million tons). Of this, food wheat will amount to 24-25 million tons (last year - about 40 million tons).
Russia's annual need for food wheat is approximately 32-35 million tons. Wheat reserves from the 1997 harvest amount to about 12 million tons (of which 50% is food), so there is enough for food. According to the Russian Grain Union, the buckwheat harvest will be no less than last year’s (630 thousand tons). This fully covers the country's needs. Bad weather conditions will also affect the potato harvest. Both collective farms and summer residents will collect 10% less than last year—approximately 33 million tons. This is only slightly less than the consumption rate of Russians (about 36-36.5 million tons). The data is approximately the same for onions, tomatoes, cucumbers and other vegetables (about 10 million tons with a consumption of 12.4 million tons). A small deficit of vegetables and potatoes could be covered by imports. But for now there is no such opportunity, so you will have to eat less.
An amazing story happened this year with the sunflower harvest: despite all the weather “dislocations”, producers promise to collect 3.2 million tons of seeds versus 2.8 million tons of last year’s harvest (!). But there will still be less vegetable oil - exactly half. The fact is that a third of the sunflower seed harvest is exported abroad, and up to 50% of the vegetable oil consumed in Russia is imported back.
By tightening the belt, we will survive the winter. But further you will need to work hard. We will eat all the bread reserves until next summer. If the harvest is bad again (Chairman of the Russian State Duma Committee on Agrarian Issues Alexey Chernyshev believes that at the current rate of withdrawal of sown areas from circulation, “next year grain production is unlikely to exceed 40 million tons”), then grain will again have to be bought in the West. If, of course, there is enough money.
DMITRY Kommersant-Dobrov, Alexey Kommersant-Khodorych

Newspaper "Kommersant" No. 166 dated 09.09.1998, p. 9

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