The fate of Yugoslavia will be decided at 14.00
The crisis around Kosovo has reached its climax. Today at 14.00 Moscow time the deadline allotted for Belgrade and the Kosovo Albanians to reach an agreement expires. If a peace treaty is not signed in Rambouillet, NATO aircraft will bomb Yugoslavia. If so, a NATO contingent will enter Kosovo. In the few hours remaining before the deadline, Moscow will have to persuade the Serbs, and the West will have to persuade the Albanians.

The main demands of the mediators are as follows: the Albanians must renounce the independence of Kosovo, and Belgrade must agree to an international military presence in the region. Everyone understands the importance of the moment. The Foreign Ministers of France and Great Britain, Hubert Vedrine and Robin Cook, addressed the Yugoslav people. The decision that Belgrade will make in the coming hours, they said, will largely determine the fate of Yugoslavia and Europe. And US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright warned President Milosevic by telephone that if negotiations fail due to Belgrade’s fault, “the strikes on Serbian military targets will be strong.”
The Secretary of State's threat was backed up by US Secretary of Defense William Cohen, who signed an order to send 12 F-117 aircraft, 10 electronic reconnaissance aircraft and 29 tanker aircraft to American bases in Europe. In 48 hours they will be ready for military operations against Serbia.
Foreign diplomats urgently leave Belgrade. Almost all Western embassies are being evacuated. Russian diplomats, according to Kommersant's information, have no plans to leave yet. International observers in Kosovo, including about a hundred Russians, are eagerly awaiting 2 p.m. If a peace agreement is not signed, they will immediately leave for neighboring Macedonia. Last night the peacekeepers held a dress rehearsal for the evacuation.
While tightening pressure on Milosevic, the West nevertheless hopes that Russia will persuade the Serbian leader. Yesterday, both Albright and the head of the OSCE, Kurt Vollebaek, asked the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Igor Ivanov, about this. However, judging by Milosevic's harsh statements yesterday, he does not want to listen to Moscow's advice. “We will not give up Kosovo, even if we are bombed,” the President of Yugoslavia resolutely declared. And OSCE observers recorded the movement of Serbian tanks in Kosovo.
If this is Belgrade's last word, confrontation with the West is inevitable. Milosevic will try to involve Russia in it. On the other hand, it has happened more than once that the Serbian leader radically changed his position at the very last moment. If this happens this time, he will come to an agreement with the West behind the backs of his Russian patrons.

GENNADY SYSOEV

Newspaper "Kommersant" No. 25 dated 02.20.1999, p. 4

Authors:

Gennady Sysoev