Spartak is not a champion

The approach of the Russian football championship, like the good old days, causes a nagging itch in the pit of the stomach among knowledgeable fans. The championship doesn’t just “promise to be more interesting than ever” and so on – it really promises to be interesting. Spartak's monopoly is coming to an end.

Bet on blue
Our championship is totalitarian: there is only one champion - Spartak. Nevertheless, the severity of the upcoming intrigue is judged by how the rivals managed to strengthen themselves.
In previous years, “Alania” was different between seasons: it would either gather under its striped banners all the capable veterans of the CIS national team (for example, such a bizarre cocktail: Ukrainian Getsko, Georgian Tskhadadze, Abkhazian with a Soviet passport Akhrik Sokratovich Tsveiba), then switch to those who In the last years of the existence of a single football space, there were main hopes for the near future (Kobiashvili, Chaladze, Chaika, Gakhokidze). However, all these transfer revelations led to Valery Gazzaev becoming convinced from his own experience: the past cannot be returned, and the future, which was dreamed of in the pre-post-Soviet years, does not correspond to objective reality.
Today Dynamo Moscow followed the path trodden by Alania. General director of the blue and white Nikolai Tolstykh has had difficulty making ends meet over the past three years: Dynamo is the only Moscow club that independently maintains its own stadium. And Mosenergo’s debt periodically amounts to such an impressive amount that, if you imagine a lump sum payment, Mosenergo’s football team from the second league will immediately approach Milan in terms of budget size.
Every year Tolstykh is forced to sell one of the leading players to the West - without this replenishment of the cash register it would be difficult for the club to survive. And suddenly, instead of regular departures (although it would be difficult to sell anyone from the current Dynamo), there was a wave of returns: Tolstykh brought Vladislav Radimov back to Russia from Spain, Denis Klyuev from Germany, and youth team captain Temryukov from Holland. From under the noses of the European competitors, a universal attacking player, the promising Moldavian Popovich, was taken away, and the Russians lost the young Roman Kagazezhev from Velikie Luki.
But enough of the names - the full list is too long and will only impress a non-specialist with its multi-line nature. Of course, Dynamo's acquisitions go against Alania's historical experience - here the players are really promising, and the outlines of the future team are visible. But something prevents us from calling the Muscovites the favorites of the championship.
To be completely frank, any forecast is based primarily on a hunch; this is then brought to the basis of what has been said. The first rule of forecasting is to doubt what catches your eye. The experience of Russian championships shows: in the off-season, someone always shakes their wallet, and super acquisitions have never meant super results. Here, in addition to Alania, we can also remember Spartak - it did not become a champion in the year of the most high-profile transitions in its recent history, when during the championship it acquired Shmarov, Kulkov and Yuran. The boost only worked in Champions League matches, but what did it bring besides money?
So, the sign: whoever buys does not win. Another thing is also important: a team that is more than half renewed cannot reach the limit of its capacity in its first season. In other words, Dynamo is still stronger in name than in game. There is nowhere to get stability, a margin of safety; and in the championship, a long and extended tournament, you cannot do without it.
I would predict Dynamo victory in the Russian Cup - as far as anyone can predict victory in such a tournament. Firstly, this competition is emotional; secondly, its drawing will end in May, that is, the starting fuse should be enough. All these factors work for Dynamo.
However, the disadvantages can always turn into advantages. Dynamo faces high competition for a place in the squad. Muscovites coach Georgy Yartsev, when he was the head of Spartak, showed himself to be a master of roster rotation: he plays with the strongest eleven. True, during his Spartak season, Yartsev dealt with young people who resignedly accepted the coaching manipulations. Now one of the eminent, finding himself on the bench, may raise a fuss.
Another opportunity for Dynamo: having a roster of experienced and skilled players, the team, once it has caught the right rhythm, can make a powerful breakthrough during the championship. But is it worth going through all the possible options? Their diversity alone indicates that Dynamo will be almost unpredictable in the coming season. This means that blue and white should be classified as dark horses - let those who don’t mind the money bet.

Bet on red
"Dynamo" is an interesting topic, but not the main one. The most important component of the forecast for the Russian Championship is the assessment of Spartak’s capabilities. The tradition of the tournament, and this is an incredibly important component, is such that, other things being equal, Spartak will certainly win. Moreover, he will win even when, according to all forecasts, he should lose. Over the past seven seasons, the “Spartak rule” has been strictly applied. But any dogma is destroyed sooner or later, it is only important to guess when exactly.
For the Russian Championship, Spartak's unquestioned leadership is a growing pain. A high-quality tournament cannot always be won by the same team, no matter how good it is. The growth in the level of the Russian championship is obvious - in two seasons our teams reached the semi-finals of European cups three times, other examples need not be given. Consequently, the era of “Spartak” comes to an end.
There are also specific symptoms of decline. During the pre-season training, injuries of varying severity appeared in almost all the main players of the Spartak defense. And even though in the end it turned out that only Evgeniy Bushmanov was out for a long time - Khlestov is already training, Ananko will start soon, and Parfenov will start even a little earlier. The essence of the matter does not change: in the preseason the team did not play with the strongest lineup. This will inevitably affect mutual understanding and the balance of the game in the championship - just like the fact that the recovering players did not run or jump enough, in general, they did not lay the foundation for the upcoming season.
The urgent acquisition of Yuri Kovtun by Dynamo Moscow is a very controversial solution to the problem. Difficulties with the national team force Oleg Romantsev to shuffle the squad. Meanwhile, he was never a master of this particular process. There has always been a bench problem in Spartak, a problem of equivalent replacement of starting players, and it has never been adequately solved. The reason is Romantsev’s maximalism. In its concept of football, it comes neither from physical exertion nor from newfangled tactical trends, but rather from a purely visual image of the ideal game. And the team’s performance only comes close to the standard, only then is it comparable to it, when the best are on the field. This is a form of maximalism.
If you carefully analyze the composition of Spartak over the past years, you will notice that Romantsev plays the championship with 13-14 players. In the current situation, this cannot but have an impact.
There is a lot of talk about the fact that it is unprofitable for Spartak for Romantsev to combine the posts of coach of the club and the national team. This is too general a reasoning; the question is how exactly this will affect. My opinion is this: the combination will benefit (and everyone) when the team’s game becomes a continuation of the Spartak game and vice versa - when one team, no matter which one, begins to creatively develop what the other has played.
Now this is impossible - both because of some features of Spartak’s game, and because of the neglect of the national team. It will take at least a year to adapt, according to the most conservative forecasts. And this reasoning can be continued; but is this the task? The main conclusion can already be drawn: Spartak is significantly weakened compared to previous seasons. And this is the main difference between the current championship and all previous ones. “Spartak”, apparently, is going downhill. Who will stay afloat?

Bet on striped
There is Spartak and there is Lokomotiv. Only these two clubs painted comprehensive self-portraits using all the means available in the arsenal of football teams. These are teams with distinct styles, stable over the past years in composition, in results, in working methods, and in coaching personnel. No other team in Russia can hang something like this on their wall.
“Spartak” and “Lokomotiv” are our starting points, milestones. Of course, it's relative; In astronomy, to establish a coordinate system, very distant stars are considered motionless. Everything changes, and only Spartak and Lokomotiv remain with their own - with their victories. It seems to me that with the supposed crisis of Spartak, the time has come for Yuri Semin’s team.
Lokomotiv has not been able to become a champion for many years. It is generally accepted that now he is no longer capable at all. But why is it accepted? Who actually came up with the idea that Lokomotiv does not have a winning mentality? Two victories in the national cup and reaching the final in the third edition - is this the experience of defeat?
Yes, the cup and the championship are called differently because they are different tournaments. But there is only one science to win. Suvorov did not divide his essay of the same name into subsections: “Victories in the Mountains,” “Victories in the Plains,” “A Special Case with a Hill in the Middle.” Romantsev, speaking about tournament psychology for the national team, talks about the mindset of winning in every match. At its core, this is a goblet mindset. But this is exactly how Spartak wins – wins the championship.
Lokomotiv does not have the harsh Spartak maximalism. But I think the team is too spoiled with champagne from honorary containers to allow themselves to be left without it for a whole year. About the years, by the way - this is when Semin’s armored train in the Russian Cup has already taken a siding; in the past - he stopped half a step from the goal. What else is a defeat in the final from Spartak and a third, “non-league” place in the championship? This is, you know, a temptation.
I think Lokomotiv is seriously hungry. I don’t believe in winning the Cup Winners’ Cup: in terms of class in the predictable semi-final four, Lokomotiv is last, and Lazio, which it will get (take it in red!), it will never pass. So hunger will continue.
At the same time, practically nothing threatens Lokomotiv's stability this season. Alexey Smertin, the most progressive footballer in the country, has been added to the multi-line list of football players who could theoretically be released on the field in a particular match, like a commuter train schedule. This is a pressure man. However, that's not the point. Lokomotiv's stability is also strengthened by the bench players, who have finally been promoted to the level of the main squad.
Lokomotiv's position has been strengthened, and it will not give it up in the coming season. This is what makes, in my opinion, the “railway” the favorite of the championship.
There is also, of course, CSKA. Brilliant team. I think last year it was CSKA that earned the right to be called the champion of the game. Excellent game of Italian style, well-matched line-up. But CSKA will start in the Champions League this year. Such a workload and such disappointment, because no one achieves results in the league in the first season, will definitely affect the finish. Therefore, CSKA is a team of a slightly more distant future. Coach Oleg Dolmatov has not yet created his dream team.
There is also “Rotor” and “Alania”. But in the Volgograd case, there is a change of generations: the team, apparently, is still being left by the leader of recent years, Oleg Veretennikov. It is difficult to judge what Rotor is capable of in its new guise; in any case, the season turns out to be transitional. A place in the top five is apparently the limit. As for Alania, the biography of this team in recent years causes too much skepticism. She has never lived up to expectations. The new update, new Brazilians, new Lithuanians and other foreign players acquired by the ambitious Gazzaev are little impressive. There is no point in judging “Alania” before the start of the championship: this is undoubtedly a capable team, led by an experienced coach, but it needs to be tested not by the ambitions expressed in the press or by the sonority of the names of the main players. Here we need a reality check. The Highlanders' first match is with Spartak - we'll see.
The bottom line: Spartak is always a favorite. But if he doesn’t lose now, then, apparently, he will never lose at all. As for Lokomotiv, either now or in the distant future, victory is certain. And if you like risk, bet on Dynamo; if you're gambling, go to Alanya. A bet on Rotor is equivalent to a contribution to the Peace Fund. As for CSKA, this is a good backup option.

VASILY UTKIN, NTV football commentator, especially for Vlast

If Spartak doesn’t lose now, then, apparently, it will never lose at all

Magazine "Kommersant Power" No. 12 dated March 30, 1999, p. 40